· Analytic
Z3143 C CPC Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal precipitation outlook for the Midwest corn-soy belt, aggregated across 36 years of tercile probabilities — Grade A regime-tilt indicator on CBOT Corn forward returns during the April-October growing season.
Current reading
+0.871
Extreme Pos
DORMANT · WAITING FOR APR
DAILY · SIGNAL
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW APRIL 2027
Current composite
+0.871
On the plus-or-minus one scale; deep in Wet outlook band
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR APR
Signal is biologically dormant Nov-Mar — the edge concentrates during the April-October growing season. Today’s +0.871 reading pre-positions for the April 2027 live window.
Signal state
Extreme Pos
50 consecutive days in state (episode start 2026-08-21)
All-time percentile
91st
Upper-decile of 36 years in the wet-outlook tail
Historical sample is dominated by in-season firings during the April-October growing season; off-season (Nov-Mar) sample conviction is reduced because corn is biologically insensitive to precipitation outlook during the dormant window.
Wet outlook corn fwd 60d
+1.63%
3,698 days (40.9%), edge +1.34pp vs +0.29% baseline
Historical sample is dominated by in-season firings during the April-October growing season; off-season (Nov-Mar) sample conviction is reduced because corn is biologically insensitive to precipitation outlook during the dormant window.
Daily IC vs corn fwd 60d
+0.1466
p=2e-44 inflated; non-overlap p=0.33 (not sig)
Historical sample is dominated by in-season firings during the April-October growing season; off-season (Nov-Mar) sample conviction is reduced because corn is biologically insensitive to precipitation outlook during the dormant window.
Current corn CBOT close
$4.48/bu
Front-month continuous back-adjusted
OBJECTIVE
The Climate Prediction Center is the forecasting arm of NOAA responsible for the official US seasonal weather outlooks. Each month CPC publishes probabilistic three-month-ahead maps of precipitation anomalies across the lower forty-eight, categorized by terciles (below-normal, near-normal, above-normal). This signal takes the CPC-published signed probability for the Midwest corn-soy belt region at lead times out to four months, averages across lead windows, forward-fills daily, applies a cosine summer-weighted gate (biological relevance peaks June through August when corn pollination and grain fill are at risk), z-scores on a 252-trading-day rolling window with a 63-day minimum, and tanh-bounds to the plus-or-minus one scale. HIGHER composite means WETTER forward outlook; LOWER means drier. The 36 year empirical pattern across 8,984 live-signal days (1990-11-29 to 2026-10-30) is clean three-regime. The Wet outlook state (composite above plus 0.5) covers 3,698 days (40.9 percent of sample) with mean corn fwd 60-day of plus 1.63 percent, edge plus 1.34 pp above the plus 0.29 percent baseline. The Normal outlook state (composite between minus 0.5 and plus 0.5) covers 1,696 days (18.8 percent) with plus -0.10 percent mean, edge minus 0.22 pp. The Dry outlook state (composite below minus 0.5) covers 3,650 days (40.4 percent) with minus 0.87 percent mean, edge minus 1.24 pp below baseline. The daily Spearman IC is plus 0.1466 at p-value 2.325e-44, which looks deeply significant in isolation. Non-overlapping sixty-day-block resampling softens the IC to plus 0.0805 at p-value 0.3275 across N equal 150 independent blocks — not statistically distinguishable from zero on independent samples. Read the daily IC as autocorrelation-inflated (CPC outlooks persist for weeks between map updates); use the regime bands as context, not standalone directional alpha. Today the composite reads plus 0.8709 as of 2026-10-30, deep in the Wet outlook band at the 91st percentile of 36 years. Read on for the counter-intuitive wet-outlook mechanism, three signature historical cases, and how to use today’s strong wet-outlook reading in context.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of CPC seasonal precipitation outlook (Midwest corn-soy belt) against CBOT corn forward returns.
The signal has been in Wet outlook for 50 consecutive trading days through Oct 30, 2026, with composite at +0.871 (91st percentile). CPC seasonal precipitation outlook for the Midwest corn-soy belt is reading strongly above-normal precipitation across the three-month forward window. Historical Wet outlook firings: 1998 El Niño fading wet-regime (post-event rally into 2000), 2011 flood-era wet-outlook, 2019 Prevent-Plant spring (deep wet signature during planting delay). Dry outlook counter-examples: 2012 drought-era CPC dry signature, 2022 La Niña triple-dip (persistent dry outlook during the Western-belt drought). Signal is in post-growing-season setup mode; the 2027 growing season window opens in April.
COMPOSITE
+0.871 / tanh
STATE
Wet outlook
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+1.63% (baseline +0.29%)
SAMPLE N
8,984 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Wet outlook composite plus 0.87 (Extreme Pos, 50 days running since 2026-08-21). The 91st percentile of 36 years — strongest wet-outlook signature since Spring 2019. Signal is biologically dormant Nov-Mar; today’s reading pre-positions for the April 2027 live window.
THE CPC OUTLOOK MECHANISM
CPC publishes probabilistic 3-month precipitation outlooks across the US. The composite aggregates Midwest corn-soy belt tercile probabilities with cosine-weighted lead times toward the April-October growing season. Wet-outlook bias co-occurs historically with El Nino warm-phase — regimes where corn forward returns run plus 1.6pp above baseline.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as a directional-tilt regime indicator, not standalone alpha. Daily IC plus 0.15 at p-value 2e-44 is autocorrelation-inflated; non-overlapping independent-sample IC collapses to p-value 0.33. Pair with the USDM Drought signal for realized-severity cross-reference. The strongest bullish-corn setup is a drought-firing + wet-outlook stack during April-October.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.871 in the Wet outlook band, placing today’s reading at the 91st percentile of 36 years. The signal line has been above the +0.5 threshold since 2026-08-21 — 51 trading days in the wet-outlook tail. CBOT front-month corn (orange, right axis) is near $4.48/bu. The 2019 Prevent-Plant spring wet-outlook anchor and the 1998 El Niño post-event rally anchor the Wet outlook band firings.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.871 State Wet outlook, 50 trading days running (since 2026-08-21).
- CPC three-month outlook, the Midwest corn-soy belt region region, lead <= 4 NOAA Climate Prediction Center monthly seasonal precipitation outlook signed-probability for the Midwest corn-soy belt region. Monthly cadence, summer-weighted cosine gate, 252-day z-score window, tanh-bounded.
- IC vs CBOT corn fwd 60d: Spearman +0.1466, p=2.325e-44 (N=8,984); non-overlap p=0.33, N=150 Daily IC deeply significant but autocorrelation-inflated (CPC outlooks persist for weeks between map updates). Non-overlapping 60-day-block IC softens to insignificance on independent samples. Read as regime context, not standalone directional alpha.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE CPC OUTLOOK IS TELLING YOU
The CPC three-month seasonal precipitation outlook for the Midwest corn-soy belt is reading strongly wet as of October 30, 2026. The composite plus 0.871 sits at the 91st percentile of 36 years, deep in the Wet outlook band. CPC-published probabilities are forecasting above-normal precipitation across the belt over the next three months. The signal has been in the Wet outlook state for 51 consecutive trading days (episode start 2026-08-21).
NON-OVERLAPPING-PERIOD CAVEAT
The headline daily IC of plus 0.15 at p-value 2e-44 is inflated by serial correlation (CPC outlooks persist for weeks between monthly map updates). Non-overlap IC softens to plus 0.08 at p=0.33 (N=150). Read as regime context, not standalone directional alpha. For actionable corn directional reads during a wet-outlook signature, cross-reference with the USDM Drought Corn States signal (direct D2-plus severity measurement with non-overlap p=0.029 clean significant) and the AMO Amplifier signal.
SEASONAL LIVE-DORMANT FRAMING
CPC outlook is published year-round, but the forward-return relevance of a wet versus dry outlook peaks during the April-October growing season when corn is biologically vulnerable to precipitation anomalies. During the November-March dormant window the signal still updates but carries minimal corn-price edge; current readings post-October are post-season signatures of how 2026 resolved and setup for the 2027 growing-season window. Treat as structural information with lower in-season conviction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three CPC precipitation-outlook regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the CPC seasonal precipitation outlook signed-probability composite (CBOT corn benchmark, 1990-11-29 through present). CBOT corn forward 60-day baseline is +0.29 percent across 8,984 live-signal days. Three-regime pattern with modest wet-outlook edge; non-overlapping IC softens to insignificance — read as regime context, not standalone directional alpha.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry outlook | – | 40.4% (3650 d) | -0.87% | -1.16pp | May 2026, Jul 2025, Apr 2025 | |
| Normal outlook | 0 | 18.8% (1696 d) | -0.10% | -0.39pp | Jun 2026, Dec 2025, Jul 2025 | |
| Wet outlook TODAY | + | 40.9% (3698 d) | +1.63% | +1.34pp | Aug 2026, Aug 2025, Jul 2024 |
The historical pattern across 36 years of CPC outlook
The signal across 36 years of CPC Midwest precipitation outlook history
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d Corn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet outlook | 10/30/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 43d | +12.33% |
| Normal outlook | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -2.74% |
| Wet outlook | 02/03/2025 | 02/19/2025 | 12d | -5.89% |
| Normal outlook | 02/20/2025 | 03/19/2025 | 20d | -13.28% |
| Dry outlook | 03/20/2025 | 07/16/2025 | 81d | -7.51% |
| Normal outlook | 07/17/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 25d | -1.66% |
| Wet outlook | 08/21/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 144d | +3.91% |
| Normal outlook | 03/19/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 30d | -12.83% |
| Dry outlook | 05/01/2026 | 06/17/2026 | 33d | -7.09% |
| Normal outlook | 06/18/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 43d | +20.66% |
| Wet outlook | 08/21/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 51d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day Corn is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The engine queries the NOAA CPC seasonal outlook table for region the Midwest corn-soy belt region with lead <= 4, averages signed_prob by forecast date, forward-fills to daily frequency, applies a summer-weighted cosine gate (peak July, biological-relevance envelope), z-scores on a 252-trading-day rolling window with 63-day minimum, and tanh-bounds. Three-regime state machine: Wet outlook above plus 0.5, Normal between plus-or-minus 0.5, Dry below minus 0.5. a three-state phase classifier using a tighter plus-or-minus 0.3 band for the chart tooltip strip.
Why it matters
Why CPC outlook reads corn forward returns
Precipitation shocks drive corn yield outcomes via pollination-window moisture availability and harvest-field access. CPC seasonal outlooks lead the realized precipitation anomaly by 1-4 months, giving traders early read on upcoming growing-season risk. The 36-year empirical pattern shows Wet-outlook signatures delivering plus 1.63 percent corn fwd 60-day (vs plus 0.29 percent baseline, edge plus 1.34pp). The physically-coherent co-occurrence is El Nino warm-phase and favorable Pacific SST patterns — regimes where CPC assigns above-normal precip probability AND corn forward returns run above baseline. The two signals likely share a common exogenous driver rather than one causing the other.
Why Grade A with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC is plus 0.1466 at p-value below 2e-44 across 8,984 live-signal days — strongly significant on daily sampling. Non-overlapping independent-sample IC (every 60 trading days, N=150) softens to plus 0.0805 at p-value 0.33, meaning the daily significance is autocorrelation-inflated by the persistence of CPC outlooks across months. Interpret as a regime-tilt context indicator rather than standalone directional alpha. The three-regime per-day stats confirm the direction (Wet plus 1.63pp edge, Dry minus 1.16pp edge, Neutral near baseline) even though the independent-sample IC does not stand alone statistically.
How to use this signal today
Composite plus 0.87 Extreme Pos reading pre-positions for the 2027 growing season but carries no immediate trade signal in the Nov-Mar biologically-dormant window. When the April 2027 live window opens and the composite remains above plus 0.5, pair with the USDM Drought Corn States signal for realized-severity cross-reference and the AMO USDM Amplifier for teleconnection context. If a drought-firing + wet-outlook stack co-occurs during the April-October growing season, that is the strongest bullish-corn setup this signal participates in. Standalone trade off wet-outlook alone is not recommended given the autocorrelation-inflated IC.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The full research brief adds methodology detail on the CPC monthly outlook construction, the summer-weighted cosine gate, the 252-trading-day z-score window choice, and the full 36 year three-regime state-conditional backtest tables. Includes case studies on 2012 Great Plains dry outlook, 2019 Prevent-Plant wet-outlook extreme, and the 2022 La Niña triple-dip dry pattern anchored to actual CPC map evolution. The non-overlapping IC robustness section explains why the daily IC overstates standalone significance and how to pair CPC outlook with USDM drought and AMO amplifier for stacked conviction.
Taxonomy, polarity, state labels
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 02, 2026 04:27 PM ET