All Signals, by sector and market

Federal Reserve commercial-bank credit-card delinquency rate year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a macro consumer-stress overlay on SPX forward returns.

The Federal Reserve G.19 consumer credit YoY Z-score signal, read as a consumer-stress regime indicator. Forty-six years of history, 121 state transitions. Credit Contraction states (minus one) have historically preceded SPY forward 60-day returns of plus 5.14 percent versus a plus 2.31 percent baseline (edge plus 2.83 pp, HAC t plus 3.43). The 2008-2010 GFC-recovery credit contraction and the 1991-1992 post-recession contraction are the signature cases.

The silver retail-squeeze signal that detects when coordinated retail buying creates physical-supply dislocation. Fifty-six years of silver market history. Retail Squeeze Up states (plus one) have delivered mean SPY fwd 60d of plus 0.28 percent versus a plus 2.31 percent baseline, edge minus 2.03 pp. The signal reads coordinated retail activity in SI silver as a sentiment proxy.

BLS retail ground beef price year-over-year as a Grade B+ consumer-demand directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

BLS Producer Price Index for processed foods year-over-year as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed light-weight placements (under 700 lbs) monthly, z-scored on 5 years, Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

WOAH New World screwworm hemispheric event-count detector (crisis-receding leg) as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

CME Feeder Cattle full term curve composite (L2/L3/L6 vs L1 average), z-scored on two years, Grade A directional signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Statistics Canada table 32-10-0130 Canadian total cattle semi-annual year-over-year shifted 90 days forward as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Daily temperature-humidity index for Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Panhandle feedlot zones, 60-day rolling mean z-scored on 5 years, Grade A directional heat-stress signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

CME Live Cattle year-over-year z-scored on 5 years, reads LC momentum as the substitution signal for Feeder Cattle through the finished-cattle feedlot linkage.

Corn-to-feeder-cattle price ratio extreme-regime detector z-scored on two years as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Log LC/FC ratio z-scored on 252 days then lagged 60 days, Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

CME LC/FC ratio z-scored on one year as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Cattle crush margin (CCM = 12.5 LC – 7.5 FC – 50 Corn) z-scored on 2 years as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

USDA AMS Choice minus Select cutout spread z-scored on 60 days as a Grade B+ consumer-premium-demand signal with strong independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

USDM county Drought Severity and Coverage Index for Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska z-scored on 5 years as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

NASS all-weight cattle placements year-over-year z-scored on 36 months as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

Montana plus Wyoming plus Idaho SNOTEL snow-water equivalent z-scored on 5 years and inverted, Grade A directional water-supply signal with the strongest IC in the FC library tied to US Herd Inventory.

Texas Panhandle plus Oklahoma plus Kansas calf-source belt polar-vortex event detector, Grade A directional signal with the second-strongest IC in the FC library on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS semiannual total cattle and calves inventory, z-scored on two years, the strongest-IC structural signal on CME Feeder Cattle.

CME Feeder Cattle minus Live Cattle spread z-scored on 5 years as a Grade B directional signal on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns (marginal independent-sample significance).

The net position of US pork packers and processors in CME lean hog futures, z-scored over five years, as the single strongest signal in the lean hog composite.

USDA NASS quarterly national breeding-herd inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a ten-month-forward supply anchor on Lean Hogs futures.

USDA AMS five-day-smoothed pork carcass cutout year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a slow-confirming demand-regime read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

Monthly US retail pork price change, year-over-year, inverted and tanh-bounded, read against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

Removed from the LH Supply Census Composite 2026-10-30 after tradable-benchmark re-measurement showed no reliable 60-day forward edge (IC +0.009, p=0.37). A seasonal read on North Carolina heat-humidity stress in the US hog belt; retained as an informational research signal only.

Heat stress accumulation in the US hog belt, read as a daily signal for how much US pork production the next 60 days will deliver versus trend.

USDA NASS national market-hog inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a near-term supply tightness read against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

CFTC managed-money positioning decile-rank crowded extremes on CME Lean Hogs, the regime-specialist read designed to catch short-squeeze setups and crowded-long liquidation turns.

A 4-year sinusoid fitted to detrended lean hog log-prices, read as the current cycle-phase position against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

US Drought Monitor D2+ coverage across Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois, the hog-belt feed-cost and production-stress proxy for CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

Iowa State University monthly estimated returns to farrow-to-finish hog producers, inverted and z-scored, as a liquidation-pressure precursor to Lean Hogs forward returns.

April pork cold-storage z-score, negated and gated to the May-August grilling season, the seasonal inflection sentiment anchor for CME Lean Hogs summer rallies.

Rolling 60-day density of extreme co-move days between CME Lean Hogs and Live Cattle, z-scored on five years, the cross-protein tail-coupling read.

FAO Meat Price Sub-Index year-over-year, z-scored on five years and sign-flipped, the global cross-meat inflation context overlay for CME Lean Hogs forward returns.

Rolling 60-day realized volatility of CME Lean Hogs returns, z-scored on a 3-year window, the vol-regime overlay for the Lean Hogs stack.

Takes the weekly CFTC Lean Hogs managed-money net position in number of contracts (sourced from the legacy CFTC Lean Hogs feed in the symbol database, itself downstream of the CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report released Fridays at 3:30 PM Eastern). Z-scores the series over a 1,260-session rolling window with a 252-session minimum. Flips the sign so that crowded-short specs read positive and crowded-long specs read negative. Output bounded between minus-one and plus-one. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). The structural read is contrarian: positive signal says specs are crowded short and the next directional surprise skews bullish-forward in Lean Hogs; negative signal says specs are crowded long and the next surprise skews bearish-forward. Edge concentrates in the tails; the middle is close to noise.

Iowa State University monthly estimated returns to farrow-to-finish hog producers, z-scored but not sign-flipped, read as a cycle-contrarian anchor against Lean Hogs forward returns.

North China Plain precipitation framed as a feed-cost gauge for the restructured post-ASF Chinese hog industry, byte-identical by construction to its demand-pulse sibling with the same empirically-inverted polarity at the extremes.

Dryness in China's biggest hog-production belt, read as the engine's a-priori demand-pulse call that the 34-year engine data partially inverts at the extremes.

USDA AMS daily average hog carcass weight year-over-year, inverted and z-scored, as a short-pull supply-pressure read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

Iowa and Minnesota precipitation across the biggest US hog-production states, read as an experimental signal that the engine author has flagged as not working at practical horizons.

Heat stress in China's biggest hog-producing belt, read as a daily signal for how much US pork the Chinese market will pull over the next sixty days.

USDA AMS raw-daily pork carcass cutout year-over-year, z-scored and tanh-bounded, as a near-real-time wholesale demand regime read on Lean Hogs forward returns.

The composite ratio of lean hog deferred contracts to the front-nearby, z-scored over two years and inverted, as the full-curve read on persistent current tightness.

The year-over-year rate of change in live cattle futures, z-scored over two years, as the slow retail-protein substitution tide under pork prices.

The year-over-year rate of change in the US Dollar Index, inverted, as the macro tide that pushes US pork export demand up or down for the next quarter.

Pulls the quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs breeding-inventory national total from the NASS table, computes a four-period percent change (year-over-year), forward-fills across trading days between quarterly releases, z-scores the YoY over a 504-day rolling window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so that a contracting herd reads positive, and bounds the output with tanh. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). The signal is a continuous read of the same underlying number that drives the event-driven Hogs and Pigs Breeding Surprise signal; it is designed to carry structural-lane context between quarterly releases rather than to time the release itself.

A five to six month leading read on US pork supply, built from Canadian feeder-pig imports. Falling flows tend to tighten supply and lift Lean Hogs; rising flows tend to weigh on prices.

A read on CME Lean Hogs supply built from the shape of the futures curve. When the back month trades at a premium to the front, forward returns tend to run positive; when the front trades at a premium, forward returns tend to run flat to negative.

Computes the ratio of Lean Hogs front-month price to Corn front-month price, taken from the canonical first-nearby back-adjusted continuous series for both markets, z-scores the ratio over a 504-day window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so that compressed ratios read as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish-LH twelve months forward (producer stress is leading indicator of herd contraction and supply tightening); negative = bearish-LH twelve months forward (producer profit leads to herd expansion and supply loosening). State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).

Reads the quarterly NASS Hogs and Pigs breeding-inventory print (national aggregate, released approximately the 23rd of March, June, September, and December), computes the deviation from the trailing twelve-quarter (three-year) rolling trend, scales by the trailing standard deviation, and inverts the sign so that a tight herd reads positive. Fires on the release date; decays exponentially over the next ten trading days (tau = decay/3); returns to zero outside the event window. Output bounded with tanh. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). Positive signal = tight breeding herd = bullish Lean Hogs six to twelve months forward (gestation plus finishing lag). Negative signal = expansion = bearish forward on the same horizon.

Reads the USDA NASS monthly pork cold storage total against its five-year same-month seasonal norm, z-scores the deviation on a monthly scale over 120 months, inverts the sign so pipeline tightness (storage drawing below norm) reads as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish LH; negative = bearish LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.5 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.9 (extreme).

Computes the NASS monthly pork cold-storage YoY, z-scores it over a 504-day window with a 60-day minimum, inverts the sign so pipeline tightness reads as positive, then bounds the output with tanh. Positive = bullish LH; negative = bearish LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).

Pulls weekly federally-inspected hog slaughter totals (hogs, all classes) released each Friday for the prior week. Compares against the same week one year earlier (365-day pct_change on a forward-filled daily series), z-scores the YoY ratio over a trailing 756-day window with 252-day minimum, and bounds the output with tanh after a sign inversion so that a slaughter surge against year-ago reads as negative-for-LH. State machine applies thresholds at plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme). Carries a corn-belt PDSI drought amplifier and 2019 ASF / 2020 COVID / 2022 PEDv Gaussian dummies as reduced-form controls, but the primary input is the weekly YoY ratio.

USDA Texas hay and alfalfa cash prices year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the regional roughage feed-cost read on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS cattle carcass weight year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the direct US supply pipeline pressure read on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

WOAH (World Organisation for Animal Health) global anthrax outbreak report cohort-count, z-scored on five years, the zoonotic bacterial disease supply-disruption signal for CME Live Cattle.

USDA weekly export sales to South Korea year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the #1-destination beef demand-pull signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA weekly export sales to Japan year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the Japan beef demand-pull signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

US Drought Monitor coverage across the beef-belt states (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska), z-scored on two years, the pasture-stress supply precursor for CME Live Cattle.

BLS CPI retail price for 100-percent ground beef, year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window and bounded with tanh. The consumer-side demand pass-through lens on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

BLS Producer Price Index for processed foods and feeds, year-over-year z-scored on a two-year window, the broader food-inflation context anchor for CME Live Cattle nominal prices.

UN FAO Cereal Price Index year-over-year, z-scored on two years and tanh-bounded, the global grain-stress feed-cost transmission signal for CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS steer share of commercial cattle slaughter, z-scored on five years, the herd-phase composition signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA PSD global beef production YoY (US weighted 2x, world 1x), tanh-negated and z-scored, the international supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

A monthly climatology z-score on China's forty-percent-of-national-slaughter hog region, read against US fed-cattle forward prices.

USDA NASS weekly pasture Good+Excellent condition across TX/OK/KS/MO, z-scored on two years, Grade C+ regional pasture-quality overlay on CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS cattle placements year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the forward slaughter-supply overlay on CME Live Cattle at the 4-6 month horizon.

US Dollar Index inverted and z-scored on two years, the US beef export-competitiveness signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

CME Lean Hogs continuous front-month year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the livestock-cycle co-movement overlay on CME Live Cattle.

USDA AMS LM_CT100 5-area weighted-average cash cattle price minus CME Live Cattle first-nearby futures, seasonal-detrended and z-scored, as a Grade C directional signal with marginal daily and non-overlap IC. Material improvement vs prior formulation but weak directional spread.

Rolling Lo-MacKinlay variance-ratio statistic on CME Live Cattle, signed by recent 20-day direction, Grade C+ market-microstructure predictability overlay.

Peer-complex 20-day return weighted by rolling 63d R-squared of LC vs peers, Grade C+ systematic common-factor signal.

BLS retail beef average price year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the retail consumer-price pass-through signal on CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS Beef in Cold Storage YoY, sign-flipped and z-scored on two years, the consumer-pull proxy signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA boxed-beef cutout minus live-cattle input cost, z-scored on two years, the packer-margin dislocation signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA AMS boxed-beef cutout year-over-year, z-scored on two years, the absolute-cutout demand-cycle overlay on CME Live Cattle.

CFTC Live Cattle commercial NET position divided by open interest, z-scored on a rolling two-year window and sign-flipped so that producer over-hedge prints positive composite, the classic feeder lock-in pattern.

USDA NASS semiannual beef cow herd YoY, sign-flipped and z-scored on two years, the longest-lead structural supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total placements year-over-year with 5-year median-absolute-deviation z-score as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the on-feed stock-level supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

USDA Choice minus Select boxed-beef cutout spread, z-scored on two years, the beef-grade demand preference signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

USDA NASS cow slaughter (excl milk) year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade B herd-liquidation signal on CME Live Cattle.

CME Feeder Cattle minus Live Cattle front-month spread, z-scored on two years, the direct feedlot replacement-cost signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

CHIRPS Kansas-Nebraska feedlot corridor 180-day rainfall anomaly, inverted and z-scored on two years, Grade A regional weather signal on CME Live Cattle.

Feeder-Cattle to Live-Cattle price ratio, z-scored on five years, the feedlot margin squeeze signal with Grade A directional edge on LC forward returns.

Rolling Hawkes-style jump-cluster intensity on CME Live Cattle, Grade B market-microstructure overlay capturing endogenous volatility clustering regimes.

USDA NASS Cattle on Feed heavy-class (>900 lbs) placements year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade B+ near-term supply signal on CME Live Cattle.

USDA NASS cattle marketings year-over-year inverted and z-scored on two years, the Grade A pipeline-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

CME Live Cattle full term curve composite (L2/L3/L6 vs L1 average), z-scored on two years, the strongest-IC directional signal in the LC fundamental stack.

CHIRPS Texas Panhandle precipitation inverted and z-scored on two years, the regional weather magnitude overlay on CME Live Cattle feedlot throughput.

USDA weekly cattle slaughter year-over-year change, z-scored on two years, the realized supply-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.

Ratio of Live Cattle front-month to corn front-month price, z-scored on a rolling two-year window and sign-flipped so compressed feedlot margins print positive. The feedlot-margin cycle driver of cattle supply 6-12 months forward.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Production Supply and Distribution series for Ukraine corn ending stocks, market-year YoY change, polarity-inverted and z-scored on a 1,260-day rolling window. High Ukraine ending stocks mean more export competition in the Black Sea corridor, which historically drags on CBOT corn forward returns. Low Ukraine stocks (war disruption, drought, logistics collapse) tighten global exportable supply and historically support CBOT corn forward returns.

Excess moisture during US corn planting forces replants and prevent-planted acres; prior-year wet-weather indemnity captures that supply disruption.

The signal multiplies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase by the US Drought Monitor (USDM) significant-drought coverage across five Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, NE, MN). The composite fires strongly only when BOTH an AMO-positive (warm Atlantic) regime AND an active USDM drought are present , the two conditions historically co-occur during the most threatening Corn Belt drought summers (1988, 2012). Interaction-signal design: slow-moving regime amplifier, not standalone directional alpha.

Precipitation during pollination and grain fill is the single biggest yield lever for US corn; a wet seasonal outlook flags a regime where the belt is pricing in forward moisture support.

The U.S. Drought Monitor seven-state corn-belt severity composite. Weekly D2-plus drought area averaged across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio, Missouri, forward-filled daily, z-scored on a 756-trading-day rolling window, tanh-bounded. HIGHER composite reads as MORE DROUGHT across the corn belt; the empirical signature is monotone bullish for corn forward returns.

Argentina ships one-fifth of global corn exports; the USDA PSD stocks-to-use ratio plus an ENSO climate overlay reads Southern-Hemisphere supply tightness as a corn forward-return tilt.

How fast the US Corn Belt is reaching the silking phenology stage versus the five-year same-week norm, weighted by state production share. Silking is the most weather-vulnerable moment in the corn growing cycle; this signal measures whether the vulnerability window is arriving ahead-of-schedule across the production-dominant states, where it matters.

CFTC Disaggregated COT Producer/Merchant net position for CORN (producer/merchant long minus producer/merchant short), z-scored on 3-year (780-day) rolling window. Reads the informed-flow category , the farmer/elevator/exporter hedgers who ARE the physical corn market , and classifies positioning extremes.

CFTC Disaggregated COT Money Manager net position for CORN, z-scored on 780-day rolling window. Captures the net directional position of hedge funds + CTAs in corn futures. The LOCKED corn portfolio wires this signal at polarity sign MINUS ONE (contrarian) to extract mean-reversion edge from crowded-position extremes.

The USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report rail index z-score , captures spot rail-tariff rates for US grain shipments from interior terminals. Elevated rail rates signal active export flow drawing grain from country elevators toward port terminals, historically bullish for corn forward returns.

A portfolio-regime variance signal: 21-day rolling std of SRW wheat return residualized against USD + HY OAS, 252-day z-scored, DY-weighted at 0.094 influence-share, 2-day forward shifted. Captures 2-day propagation of wheat-complex shocks into corn-complex volatility. Portfolio-level sizing nudge, not directional alpha.

The weekly deterioration or improvement in US corn Good-plus-Excellent condition, with seasonal weighting that concentrates the signal during the critical June-September window. When G+E drops week-over-week during pollination and grain fill, forward corn returns have historically delivered the clearest edge.

Brazil ships about one-third of the world's corn exports out of Santos; the vessel-loading pace reads as a real-time gauge of whether global demand is pulling grain or Brazilian supply is sitting in the yard.

Ukraine was a ten-percent share of global corn exports before 2022; the USDA PSD year-over-year production z-score reads Black Sea supply shocks as a corn forward-return tilt, asymmetric, with the real edge on the surplus side.

The calendar spread between CBOT corn December contract and the first-nearby contract, z-scored and polarity-inverted. Deep carry markets (Dec well above nearby) and deep inversion markets have historically been the two signature regimes for US corn; the signal measures where current carry sits across 38 years of history.

Hard red winter wheat is the main substitute protein in US feed rations; when HRW gets expensive relative to corn, feeders switch to corn and demand firms. Thirty-six years of CBOT corn against the KW-minus-C spread.

Argentina ships roughly one-fifth of the world's corn exports out of Bahia Blanca; the vessel-loading pace reads as a real-time gauge of whether global demand is pulling Southern-Hemisphere grain or Argentine supply is sitting in the yard.

Argentina's Pampas rainfall from CHIRPS satellite precipitation and soil moisture from NASA SMAP, phenology-gated to the December-February Southern Hemisphere summer growing window. The strongest standalone signal in the LOCKED corn portfolio: EXTREME_POS state (Argentine Pampas drought) delivers plus 8.51 percent corn forward 60-day returns with HAC-t plus 8.10 , significant at the 1 percent level across 669 state-days.

The 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index for Illinois and Iowa, inverted so drought conditions in the two highest-production US corn states register as positive signal values. The highest-weighted input in ML Auto Corn Composite V9 ML Auto Corn Composite at 13.5 percent of model weight.

The 30-day rolling count of NOAA-reported hail events across eight Corn Belt states, z-scored on 1,260-day rolling window. The empirical state-to-corn-forward-return direction is OPPOSITE the naive "hail = crop damage = bull corn" reading: HIGH hail historically PRECEDES bearish corn forward returns.

The count of July days where daily maximum temperature exceeded 32°C across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska averaged by state, z-scored and July-gated. The signal only fires during the critical July silking window , delivering a precision read on pollination-window heat-stress risk.

The 30-day change in US corn production estimate from USDA FAS PSD data, polarity-inverted so downward revisions map to positive signal values. Amplified by MODWT wavelet-decomposition regime indicator and PDSI corn-belt drought amplifier. Captures WASDE revision drift as a US corn supply-demand surprise signal with model-grade publication-aware design + 30-day explicit publication lag.

How fast the US Corn Belt is advancing through planting and emergence versus the five-year normal, weighted by state production share. Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, South Dakota, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Kansas (approximately 90 percent of US corn production) drive the signal; minor-producer states no longer dilute the reading.

How fast the US Corn Belt is reaching the emerged phenology stage versus the five-year same-week norm, weighted by state production share. Patched 2026-10-25 to replace the national-aggregate anti-pattern , identical state-weighted methodology to the patched Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Development Pace signal.

A discrete tier mapping of CBOT corn front-month price to acreage-decision breakeven levels. Below $3.17/bushel = acreage will contract next season (bullish forward). Above $8/bushel = acreage will expand (bearish forward via mean-reversion). A rule-based mean-reversion signal.

The parent signal the companion signal EIA daily US ethanol corn input volumes, residualized against an ES + DX + CL + GC macro basis to strip out common macro beta. The residual carries idiosyncratic ethanol-corn-demand alpha orthogonal to broad market conditions.

The 4-week acceleration of China's share of US weekly corn export inspections, winsorized at 2nd–98th percentile and z-scored. Captures demand-shock dynamics in Chinese purchasing of US corn , a rare destination that when-active produces visible announcement-fade dynamics in corn forward returns.

The equal-weighted z-score composite of five USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report cost components: diesel, rail, river barge, ocean-Gulf, and ocean-PNW. The empirical state-to-corn-forward-return direction is OPPOSITE the naive "high transport cost compresses margins" author thesis , expensive transport has historically PRECEDED bullish corn forward returns.

Daily minimum temperature for Iowa from OpenMeteo state-aggregate data, z-scored on 5-year rolling window and polarity-inverted so cold days register as positive signal values. A simple frost-risk indicator , low Iowa Tmin during late-spring planting or early-fall harvest windows signals yield-stress regimes.

The raw monthly sea-surface-temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific , the ENSO signal before the 3-month smoothing that produces the official ONI. Faster-moving than ONI, polarity-inverted so La Niña maps to positive signal values. All five verdict tails HAC-t significant.

The NOAA Oceanic Niño Index with a 60-day publication-aware shift and polarity inversion, so La Niña regimes register as positive signal values. ONI is OFFICIALLY a CENTERED 3-month SST anomaly mean, so the raw NOAA series carries an inherent 2-month look-ahead that this engine's 2026-10-25 patch removes.

The year-over-year change in US corn ending stocks, with each marketing year's value anchored at Oct 1 of the FOLLOWING year , when the September Grain Stocks report and October WASDE have reconciled the final number. The pre-patch engine anchored at Aug 1 of the marketing year's starting year, a 14-month look-ahead that materially inflated in-sample statistics.

US corn weekly export sales to China from USDA FAS Export Sales Weekly database, z-scored on 252-day rolling window. The empirical direction is CONTRARIAN: both HIGH sales (extreme-pos) and LOW sales (extreme-neg) have historically preceded bearish corn forward returns, with the sharpest bear tails on the moderate-pos and extreme-pos states.

The ratio of US CBOT corn front-month price to the IMF global maize price benchmark (PMAIZMTUSDM), z-scored across 36 years. Low ratio means US corn is cheap relative to global reference prices , historically a precursor to US export-driven corn rallies.

The USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report river barge index, z-scored across 36 years. Captures Mississippi + Illinois waterway barge rates. High index values signal active US export pull drawing grain to Gulf export terminals , historically bullish for corn forward returns.

The standard deviation of cell values within each monthly WASDE report, 504-day rolling z-scored. Measures the "churn" or "noise level" of each WASDE publication across all its reporting cells , a report-level revision-velocity signal that captures when USDA is revising estimates aggressively versus publishing stable updates.

A weak Chinese renminbi tracks Chinese macro-stress regimes, which historically drive accelerated strategic corn stockpiling by SINOGRAIN and pull US export volumes higher.

Tail-driven corn selloffs (negative return skewness) historically mean-revert into recovery; concentrated big up-days exhaust and fade.

La Nina paired with a cool-phase PDO amplifies South American crop stress during the Dec-Feb growing window, delivering the sharpest corn-rally setups of the modern record.

Drought in the US Corn Belt I-States during silking and grain-fill cuts yield materially; the composite captures that supply stress across seven orthogonal weather channels.

Shrinking world corn ending stocks force buyers to compete for scarce physical inventory; expanding stocks let supply outrun demand and soften futures.

Month-over-month revisions in the USDA WASDE US corn ending-stocks estimate, read as an event-driven fundamental anchor whose state-conditional edge has run forward 60-day corn returns up to 2.5 percent above baseline across 15 years.

Wikipedia pageview quiet-regime periods on the Maize article flag news-void stretches that have historically coincided with mild corn weakness over the next 60 trading days.

Brazil is the world's second-largest soybean oil producer; a shortfall tightens global soy-complex supply and firms CBOT BO.

Soybean oil 20-day trailing momentum as a trend-following read; the empirical pattern is weakly directional with the neutral-momentum regime posting the best 60-day forward returns on CBOT BO.

High WTI crude naively argues for bullish BO via biofuel margins; empirically the 60-day CBOT Soybean Oil response runs modestly bearish as high crude coincides with demand slowdown and composite mean-reversion.

Soybean oil trades in an energy-equivalent basis vs heating oil; when BO carries an extreme premium over HO, forward BO returns mean-revert lower. When BO trades at a deep discount, returns mean-revert higher.

Realized US renewable diesel feedstock usage from EIA monthly data. When soybean oil's share of the RD feedstock mix firms, BO demand tightens and forward returns respond.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Argentine soybean oil production year-over-year change, 1,260-day z-scored, tanh-bounded. Natively targets BO soybean oil but Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (inst-analysis) Argentine Biofuels Regime wraps with -1 polarity so Argentine soyoil SURGE (biodiesel feedstock abundance) maps to bearish-S via SM-BO-S joint-production linkage.

USDA FAS PSD Argentine soybean oil exports YoY, 2-year rolling z-scored, INTERNALLY INVERTED at engine level via `val = tanh(-z)`. Native target BO (soybean oil); Soybean Biofuels Mandate Regime (inst-analysis) wraps at pol=+1 consuming already-inverted output. Argentina is ~45 percent of world soyoil trade.

EPA Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) Biomass-Based Diesel annual mandate year-over-year change, 2-year rolling z-scored, tanh-bounded. The direct RFS-2 D4 RIN demand-floor signal for soybean oil feedstock. Anchor of Soybean Biofuels Mandate Regime (inst-analysis) Biofuels Mandate Regime at 30 percent weight. Tier A IC.

The Cass Freight Index reads US trucking volumes and expenditures; elevated freight stress historically precedes modestly bearish soy-complex forward returns through the demand-weakness transmission channel.

Managed-money positioning extremes drive mean-reversion setups in soybeans; the signal reads an asymmetric contrarian edge where washed-out short positioning precedes rallies but crowded longs rarely mean-revert quickly.

A backwardated soybean oil forward curve flags physical BO scarcity that transmits to the soybean complex through the crush economics channel.

The soybean 1m-12m calendar-spread signal reads physical-market pressure directly from CBOT settlement prices; backwardation signals bullish physical tightness, contango signals bearish ample supply.

Dollar-and-rates macro regimes drive soybean commodity beta; the composite reads strong USD + elevated 5Y yields as risk-off bearish, weak USD + benign yields as risk-on bullish, with a clean monotonic edge.

The US 10Y TIPS real-rate overlay reads the bar on commodity ownership, when real yields rise, commodity inventory carry is taxed and speculator flow rotates out even when fundamentals are bullish.

Soybean carryover tightness drives the next marketing year's US supply flexibility; when stocks contract year-over-year the balance sheet loses cushion against production shortfalls or export surges, and forward returns historically firm.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service PSD Argentine soybean meal production year-over-year change, 20-year rolling z-scored, INVERTED at script level so SBM contraction maps to extreme-pos and bullish S. Argentina is the world's #1 soybean meal exporter , approximately 40% of world trade.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Production Supply Distribution Argentine soybean ending stocks year-over-year change, 5-year rolling z-scored and INVERTED so low stocks map to extreme-pos and bullish soybean. Market-year anchored August 1 per USDA convention. 30% weight ANCHOR of Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (inst-analysis) Argentine Biofuels Regime composite.

GDELT Global Knowledge Graph protest-theme 30-day rolling document count for Argentina, 1,260-day z-scored, tanh-bounded. Native engine +1 polarity (farmer-strike + FX-policy unrest = export freeze = short-term bullish S). Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (inst-analysis) Argentine Biofuels Regime wraps -1 (longer-horizon 120d IC +0.102 , protests signal POLICY RESOLUTION paths that unlock supply 4-6 months out, bearish S).

Global vegetable oil supply/demand balance aggregating soy, palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oilseed sources, 1,260-day rolling z-scored. Natural +1 polarity , tight global balance = bullish S via global oil complex transmission. 15 percent weight in Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) Palm Oil Substitution composite.

Argentine Pampas pod-fill heat stress signal using Open-Meteo ERA5 daily TMAX + TMIN with sigmoid severity + compound geometric mean + exponential decay outside Dec-Mar growing season. Captures Lerner Hypothesis H2 , Pampas TMAX>95°F + TMIN>70°F Feb-Mar pod-fill heat stress historically correlates with soybean yield loss and bullish S prices.

Multiple China-destined US soybean export channels , USDA export sales commitments, FGIS weekly inspections, destination share metrics , aggregated into a single real-time China-demand signal. Natural +1 polarity. 20% weight non-anchor member of Soybean China Crush Demand (inst-analysis) S_China_Crush_Demand + 4% equal-weight member of Soybean S-DEM-1 Answer (25-member Q&A composite, 92% overlap with the companion playbook) S_s_dem_1 Q&A composite. **Current val at NEAR MAXIMUM , 99.3 percentile.**

Soy/palm/CPO spread z-score composite capturing internal palm-complex pricing spreads integrated across soybean + palm + CPO curve. 1,260-day rolling z-scored, tanh-bounded. Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) Palm Oil Substitution EMPIRICALLY INVERTS to -1 polarity based on 60-day IC +0.097 post-flip. 10 percent weight (lightest Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) member).

EIA monthly Renewable Diesel + Biodiesel feedstock input series summed into aggregate biofuels demand metric, year-over-year, 504-day rolling z-scored. Captures total ZL (soybean oil) feedstock pull across US biofuels categories.

California Air Resources Board Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit price (`carb-lcfs-credit-price-monthly`), dual-component engine: 50 percent z-score + 50 percent $100-threshold indicator per Tran Hypothesis H3. Above $100 subsidy stack supports soybean oil feedstock economics.

Chinese Yuan (CNY) spot or forward strength vs USD, z-scored on multi-year rolling window, tanh-bounded. Captures the exchange-rate transmission to Chinese soybean import demand , stronger CNY = cheaper USD soybeans = more Chinese buying = bullish S via demand channel.

Captures Fry Hypothesis H1: when CPO (crude palm oil) trades at discount to ZL (soybean oil) greater than $50/MT for 3+ consecutive weeks, food industry reformulates toward palm oil → soy oil demand destruction → soybean price cap triggers. 5-year rolling z-scored. Anchor of Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) Palm Oil Substitution composite.

Global soybean oil (BO) to soybean meal (SM) price ratio, 1,260-day (5-year) rolling z-scored, tanh-bounded. Captures crush economics mix: when oil is priced premium to meal, crushers favor oil-heavy output drive, generating active crush demand → bullish soybean complex. Natural +1 polarity. 20 percent weight in Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) Palm Oil Substitution composite.

EIA National Renewable Diesel ending stocks monthly series `M_EPOORDO_SAE_NUS_MBBL`, 504-day z-scored, INTERNALLY INVERTED. Low stocks = tight biofuels feedstock demand = bullish soybean oil via crush-pull → bullish soybean via joint-production.

USDA FGIS weekly Export Inspections by Destination filtered for CHINA, 4-week rolling sum normalized by total US weekly soybean export tonnage, standardized via robust median + MAD on 26-week rolling window with +7-day publication shift. Fast-cadence (weekly) China-demand mechanism , captures Trade War I + II + Phase-One Deal transitions 7-8 weeks faster than Census monthly.

NOAA Oceanic Nino Index , centered 3-month SST anomaly mean in Nino-3.4 (5N-5S x 120W-170W) , INVERTED so La-Nina maps to extreme-pos and bullish-soybean via South American drought stress. 20% weight member of Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite V9 Soybean composite. Patched 2026-10-25 to apply 60-day shift removing the centered-mean look-ahead.

US Used Cooking Oil (UCO) imports divided by Renewable Diesel (RD) feedstock input, 1,260-day rolling z-scored, tanh-bounded. Captures Tran Hypothesis H2 , rising UCO ratio = UCO displacing soybean oil as RD feedstock = bearish soybean. UN Comtrade HS 1518 data from 2015 onward. Natural +1 polarity.

US soybean futures (S front-month, cents/bushel) divided by IMF global palm oil price (PPOILUSDM, USD/MT), 504-day z-scored and tanh-bounded. The ratio captures soybean-oil vs palm-oil substitution dynamics in biodiesel + cooking + industrial demand. ⚠️ 2026-09-01 Prakash+Patterson persona review found mechanism belongs to BO not S but Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite uses for S anyway.

Captures Irwin Hypothesis H2: ZL (soybean oil) premium to CPO (palm oil) greater than 30 percent indicates RFS biodiesel mandate is binding, providing structural ZS support. Native engine +1 polarity. Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) EMPIRICALLY INVERTS to -1 based on 60-day IC +0.162 post-flip , the empirical pattern shows elevated ZL premium historically COINCIDES with mean-reversion bearish for S via palm substitution loss.

EU27 is the world's largest wheat bloc producer; a shortfall tightens global supply and firms futures, while a bumper harvest displaces US and Black Sea exports.

Dry conditions across the Western Australia and NSW wheatbelt cut Australian export supply and tighten the Pacific-basin wheat balance; Australia is the world's number-three wheat exporter.

Shrinking total world wheat exports flag trade friction and global demand slowdown; the net impact on wheat futures depends on whether supply or demand drives the contraction.

Ukraine is a top-5 world wheat exporter; elevated geopolitical risk around Ukraine events shows up directly in wheat futures through shock spikes and subsequent mean-reversion.

El Niño historically drives Australian wheat drought, but the empirical 60-day CBOT SRW wheat response runs modestly bearish, reflecting US Plains rainfall offset and horizon dynamics.

Novorossiysk is Russia's largest Black Sea grain port; slow cargo pace flags disruption to the Russian wheat export program and tightens world supply.

Shrinking US wheat ending stocks force buyers to compete for scarce physical inventory; expanding stocks let supply outrun demand and soften futures.

Slow winter wheat harvest confirms earlier drought and condition reads; empirically CBOT HRW wheat 60-day forward returns run bearish as the market mean-reverts lower after the already-priced-in supply reduction.

Drought across the US Hard Red Winter wheat belt (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Nebraska) cuts yield and tightens HRW supply; KC wheat tracks the US winter-wheat crop directly.

Falling Good/Excellent crop ratings from USDA NASS flag winter-wheat crop stress and tighten the HRW balance; KC wheat tracks the US winter-wheat crop directly.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter; a shortfall in Russian production tightens global wheat supply, and Minneapolis spring wheat is the world-wheat beta-exposure contract.

The quarterly-released cocoa grindings composite that reads processor demand on cocoa, built from the ECA (European Cocoa Association), NCA (National Confectioners Association, US), and CAA (Cocoa Association of Asia) regional reports. Thirty-six years of history, three-state machine. The historically contrarian pattern: Demand Weakness states have preceded above-baseline cocoa forward returns by 2.24 percentage points, a counterintuitive pattern the 2022-2024 supercycle made famous.

CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab captures moisture stress on Pakistani cotton production and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the fifth-largest-producer supply channel.

Production-weighted drought severity across the US cotton belt captures growing-season moisture stress and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the supply-shock channel.

CFTC non-commercial net speculator positioning in Cotton futures captures speculator conviction and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the sustained-flow channel.

NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Vidarbha captures groundwater stress on the rain-fed cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.

NASS weekly US cotton squaring pace year-over-year captures phenology timing stress on the US crop and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the growing-cycle channel.

Baltic Exchange Panamax plus Supramax dry-bulk freight rates captures global shipping demand and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex demand channel.

US apparel retail inventory-to-sales ratio captures end-user demand slack for cotton-fiber products and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the downstream-demand channel.

CHIRPS 30-day precipitation over Xinjiang captures moisture stress on 80 percent of Chinese cotton production and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the global-supply channel.

NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Gujarat captures groundwater stress on the irrigation-dependent cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.

USDA PSD US cotton production year-over-year captures systemic US supply shifts and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the top-exporter supply channel.

Cotton ginner-throughput stress captures processing-capacity bottlenecks in the US cotton gin network; signal affects both cotton futures and cottonseed-oil availability as a BO substitute.

Brazil Arabica realized export price year-over-year, as a transaction-derived gauge of physical tightness.

NOAA Oceanic Niño Index weighted by Brazil Arabica dry-season and flowering windows, as a long-lead ENSO-driven supply signal for Arabica.

Brazil Cerrado and Sul-Minas water deficit (PET minus AET from TERRACLIMATE), as a true-water-stress drought lens for Arabica.

BLS Import Price Index for the Green Coffee plus Cocoa plus Sugar basket year-over-year, as a cross-soft macro lens for Arabica supply cycles.

Realized 60-day volatility of ICE US Coffee C, as a volatility-regime lens for Arabica.

CHIRPS satellite precipitation over the Brazil Cerrado coffee belt, inverted as a drought lens for Arabica supply.

CONAB Minas Gerais arabica production forecast year-over-year, inverted as a state-level tightness lens for Arabica.

BLS Import Price Index deviation from long trend as a cost-push versus cost-deflation regime signal for Arabica.

IMF Primary Commodity Prices Other Mild Arabica benchmark deviation from trend, as a global arabica reference-price lens for ICE Coffee C.

60-day density of days where Arabica and Robusta both move more than 1.5 sigma in the same direction, as a coupled-tail regime lens for Arabica.

Product of ICE Europe Robusta managed-money net 3-year z and CFTC Arabica managed-money net 3-year z when same-sign, as a coupled cross-coffee positioning lens.

Commercial dealer positioning in Arabica futures drives the price regime via physical-hedge demand; the DCOT dealer z-score captures this flow.

Brazilian Arabica production forecast year-over-year captures supply-regime shifts that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the systemic supply channel.

Central American coffee-belt wet-weather anomalies elevate roya leaf-rust risk and historically precede Arabica supply shocks that drive forward 60-day returns.

Global soluble coffee export growth interacted with weather and global price context captures Arabica demand regime and drives forward 60-day returns via the demand-plus-context channel.

CPIAUCSL year-over-year z-score as a US inflation regime lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

NINO3 minus NINO4 SST anomaly z-score as an ENSO geographic structure lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

Cleveland Fed Median CPI inverted year-over-year captures entrenched-inflation regime shifts that drive Fed tightening cycles and Arabica forward 60-day returns.

US ready-to-drink and extracts import growth outpacing green coffee import growth signals a structural share gain for Robusta blends and drives Arabica forward 60-day returns via the structural substitution channel.

Global composite coffee price year-over-year change leads Arabica forward 60-day returns via the global price benchmark channel; the ICO ICIP YoY z-score captures the regime.

6-month rolling Arabica-Robusta spread z-score as a cross-coffee relative-value lens on Arabica forward 60-day returns.

Brazilian coffee-region fire activity captures combined crop-loss and pollination-stress supply shocks that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the fire-pressure channel.

Brazilian farmer fertilizer costs in local currency capture input-price pressure on coffee producers and transmit to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the production-cost channel.

Offshore sea-surface temperature anomalies near the Brazilian coffee coast drive moisture advection to inland coffee regions and lead Arabica forward 60-day returns via the ocean-climate channel.

Baltic Dry Index year-over-year captures global dry-bulk shipping demand and transmits the global-growth cycle to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex demand channel.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index year-over-year z-score captures credit-cycle regime shifts that drive Arabica forward 60-day returns via the risk-capital channel.

10-year TIPS real yield captures the real cost of capital and transmits to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex discount-rate channel.

NASA FIRMS satellite fire intensity over the Brazil Sul de Minas coffee belt, as a real-time crop-destruction supply-shock lens for Arabica.

How crowded speculative money is in coffee, measured as a 5-year z-score of the net long position, moves as a soft-commodity risk-on tell that bleeds into cattle positioning on the same risk-cycle time scale.

A GRACE-satellite-derived deep-aquifer stress signal over Ethiopia's coffee belt, read as a diffuse macro-coincidence indicator for US fed cattle.

The disaggregated managed-money cut on coffee positioning, available since 2006, is a cleaner read on how fast money is leaning into the softs complex than the legacy aggregated breakdown.

A GRACE-satellite-derived aquifer-stress signal over Guatemala's volcanic coffee belt, read as a Mesoamerican Dry Corridor macro backdrop for US fed cattle.

US monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam year-over-year as a demand-pull lens on Robusta forward 60-day returns.

ICE Europe managed-money net positioning in Robusta coffee futures captures speculator conviction and leads Robusta forward 60-day returns via the direct-positioning channel.

Vietnam Robusta root-zone soil moisture during flowering and berry-development, when yield is determined.

The year-over-year change in Brazilian centrifugal sugar exports, z-scored and polarity-inverted. Brazil's cane-based sugar-versus-ethanol production split is the single largest global cross-commodity link between the sugar and corn markets; this signal captures where that split currently sits versus its multi-decade trend.

JODI monthly Saudi crude capacity-utilization signal — reads Saudi Arabia's production discipline cycle; the empirical anchor of OPEC supply policy.

Four-chokepoint tanker-transit composite covering Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Cape of Good Hope; global crude seaborne flow disruption gauge.

Refiners hedge forward distillate demand through heating-oil futures; the CFTC managed-money net position captures speculator conviction on that demand, which leads crude via refiner purchase behavior and crack-spread economics.

Rising TIPS real yields tax crude inventory carry; the composite reads a 252-day z-score of DFII10, polarity-flipped so rising real yields produce a negative composite (bearish crude).

Recent price momentum in crude extends through speculator chase, physical inventory pull, and refiner stock building. The 20-day log-return of WTI captures that combined pressure.

Satellite thermal detection combined with AIS tanker arrival data flags days when sanctioned-country refineries (Iran, Venezuela) show real fire-and-loading-drop conjunction events.

Dallas Fed drilling, Atlantic hurricane intensity, US refinery fires, AMO climate cycle, and USO ETF YoY flow combine into a supply-shock read, net of macro common-factor movement in equity, dollar, crude, and gold.

Speculators adding to their crude bet confirms the price trend direction. The composite blends the CFTC managed-money net-position level with 4-week and 12-week changes.

The crude oil open-interest momentum signal. Eighteen years of continuous history. OI Momentum Down states (minus one) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 5.15 percent versus plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 3.63 pp. Twenty-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

Growth (ADS), stress (OFR FSI), dollar (DXY 21d change), and credit (HY OAS 21d change) all feed into crude demand; the composite blends four daily z-scores and fires bearish during recession or stress.

The crude oil 321 crack spread signal that reads refining margin dynamics (2 gasoline plus 1 distillate minus 3 crude). Thirty-six years of continuous history. Refining Margin Strong states (plus one, 41.6 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL forward 60-day returns of plus 4.22 percent versus plus 2.39 percent baseline, edge plus 1.83 pp, HAC t plus 2.29. Highest-weight input (25 percent) alongside CL Contango M6-M1 contango in CL Extremes Contrarian playbook.

When WTI and Brent crash together and rally together with the same intensity, they are one asset. When they diverge at the tails, pair-trade edge exists.

The distillate-isolated crack signal, residualized against the broad 321 crack to capture distillate-specific demand dynamics. Forty-five years of continuous history. Distillate Premium Low states (minus one, 26.7 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 3.69 percent versus plus 2.68 percent baseline, edge plus 1.01 pp. Fifteen-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The crude oil term-structure signal that reads the broader curve-shape metric across multiple nearby contracts. Eighteen years of continuous history. Term Structure Depressed states (minus one, 21.5 percent of sample) have delivered mean CL fwd 60-day returns of plus 10.42 percent versus plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 8.89 pp (HAC t plus 2.20, significant at 5 percent threshold). Fifteen-percent weight input to CL Extremes Contrarian playbook with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The CL M6-M1 curve-structure signal that reads deep contango versus deep backwardation as a trend-following commodity-curve indicator. Eighteen years of continuous history. Backwardation Deep states (plus one) have delivered mean CL forward 60-day returns of plus 5.89 percent versus a plus 1.53 percent baseline, edge plus 4.36 pp. Highest-weight input (25 percent) alongside CL 321 Crack Spread crack spread in CL Extremes Contrarian playbook.

Operators choose where to deploy rigs based on relative basin economics. The Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio tracks which basin is attracting capital, which transmits into pipeline and LNG supply.

Rotterdam LNG regasification throughput measures how hard Europe is pulling physical LNG. Extreme LNG pull tends to signal that the bullish demand is already in Henry Hub pricing and the forward tilts bearish.

African drilling activity leads LNG-export supply hitting global markets by 6-9 months via the drilling-to-liquefaction pipeline. The composite tracks rig count YoY; polarity is inverted so positive reads supply cuts.

Drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) well counts in the Haynesville basin track pull-forward supply when operators complete wells from inventory without drilling new ones. Drawdowns signal near-term supply pressure.

US winter nat gas consumption is driven by residential and commercial heating load. The HDD anomaly captures the weather deviation beyond the seasonal curve that is already priced into the forward.

Three-leg Natural Gas composite, 60 percent EIA L48 storage vs 5-year week-of-year climatology, 30 percent EIA storage seasonal-model residual, 10 percent nearby curve carry, as a Grade B+ directional signal on NYMEX Natural Gas forward returns with INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT non-overlap post-2003.

European TTF gas trades at a premium to US Henry Hub when EU demand pulls hard on US LNG. The spread leads US LNG terminal utilization and Gulf Coast feedgas demand by weeks.

Texas runs more than 40 percent of its generation on natural gas, and ERCOT covers 90 percent of Texas electric consumption. ERCOT load growth transmits directly to Henry Hub nat gas demand.

Recent price momentum predicts forward returns in natural gas because storage-flow traders and physical commercials react to 20-day moves.

Satellite thermal signatures from 1038 US power plants reveal gas-fired generation activity in near-real-time; aggregate plant thermal pressure predicts gas burn and forward returns.

European gas storage runs on a sharp seasonal cycle. Storage deviation from the day-of-year norm leads LNG import demand and transmits back to Henry Hub via Gulf Coast feedgas. The strongest signal in the NG global stack.

Rising TIPS real yields tax inventory carry across commodities; nat gas carries the drag harder than crude because gas storage is more expensive per unit of market value and seasonal-storage financing dominates balance sheets.

Electric-power generators burn nat gas to match load; weekly US power-burn is the physical demand realization. Burn extremes mean-revert (high burn is priced into spot; low burn signals forward strength).

The regional natural-gas storage imbalance signal. Reads when US regional storage levels diverge from the long-run norm. Forty-five years of continuous history. Regional Storage Loose states (minus one, 2.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of -13.76 percent versus plus 3.34 percent baseline, edge -17.10 pp (HAC t -2.14, significant at 5 percent). Eighteen-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.

The natural gas versus crude oil raw ratio signal. Reads NG-CL from the direct-ratio angle (NG USD/MMBtu over CL USD/bbl). Thirty-four years of continuous history. Shares engine output with NG-CL Fuel Switch Parity (sister pair). NG-CL Ratio Low states (minus one, 76.3 percent of sample, inverse of NG-CL Fuel Switch Parity's NG Cheap vs CL state) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 4.58 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 1.33 pp (HAC t plus 2.86, significant at 5 percent). Twenty-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The natural gas versus crude oil BTU-equivalent parity signal. Reads when NG is cheap relative to CL (favoring NG fuel switching in power generation) versus when NG is expensive relative to CL. Thirty-four years of continuous history. NG Cheap vs CL states (plus one, 76.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 4.58 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 1.33 pp (HAC t plus 2.86, significant at 5 percent threshold). Twenty-two percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.

The natural gas year-over-year price momentum signal. Thirty-four years of continuous history. NG YoY Negative states (minus one, 9.2 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 5.82 percent versus a plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 2.57 pp. The highest-weight input (28 percent) to NG Extremes Directional with contrarian polarity (minus one).

The US LNG export year-over-year growth signal. Thirty-four years of continuous history (early years mostly zero exports). LNG Exports Steady states (zero, 39.3 percent of sample) have delivered mean NG forward 60-day returns of plus 6.68 percent versus plus 3.25 percent baseline, edge plus 3.42 pp (HAC t plus 2.96, significant at 1 percent). Twelve-percent weight input to NG Extremes Directional with polarity sign plus one.

Aquifer depletion under northern Chilean copper mines constrains flotation, tailings transport, and smelter cooling; the satellite measure of regional water storage leads copper price direction with a 60-day horizon.

Aquifer depletion under the southern Peruvian copper belt constrains Las Bambas, Cerro Verde, Antamina, Toquepala, and Cuajone operations; the satellite water-storage reading leads copper price direction with a 60-day horizon.

Managed-money speculators in COMEX copper swing crowded long and crowded short on multi-year cycles; the ratio of positioning against a three-year baseline leads copper price direction.

Chilean Atacama precipitation and soil-moisture anomalies drive mine-site water availability; the combined satellite stress index leads copper price direction with a multi-month horizon.

China credit expansion drives copper demand with a 3-to-6-month lag; the Q4-Q1 seasonal restocking window amplifies the effect. The interaction leads copper price direction when both conditions align.

Dr. Copper versus safe-haven gold, read as the real-time growth-versus-risk axis of the macro cycle.

Civil-protest and conflict events across Chilean, Peruvian, Congolese and Zambian copper-mining regions disrupt output; the weekly ACLED event z-score leads copper price direction with a 30-to-60-day horizon.

The BIS China credit-gap 12-month-change impulse with TIC-reserve-deployment confirmation and property-crisis structural dampening. A portfolio-level regime signal for the commodity complex , China's credit cycle leads global commodity demand by 3-6 months.

A 360-day water-stress composite across Chile and Peru that captures roughly 40 percent of world copper mine supply; drought conditions in these two countries lead copper price direction with a multi-month horizon.

Emissions suppression over Freeport Morenci and Rio Tinto Bingham Canyon signals reduced US domestic copper output; the inverted UVAI z-score leads copper price direction when US production tightens.

NASA satellite thermal-anomaly readings over the Chilean Atacama Desert as a 60-day forward signal on COMEX copper, with a counterintuitive polarity signature.

The copper-to-gold ratio anchored with macro overlays, as a thirty-six-year reflation-regime signal on COMEX copper.

CFTC managed-money speculative positioning in COMEX copper, z-scored on a one-year window and inverted into a contrarian lens.

The daily satellite tempo of Chilean Atacama copper mines, 25 percent of global supply, as a 60-day forward signal on COMEX copper.

A two-year rolling z-score of the OECD China Business Sentiment Composite Indicator, read as a sixty-day forward lens on COMEX copper.

The shape of the copper futures curve, extracted via rolling PCA, as a 32-year regime-identifier signal on COMEX copper.

The daily satellite tempo of the world's eight largest primary copper mines, read as a 60-day forward signal on COMEX copper.

STUB, this page is a stub for a future ICSG-reader engine; the current data pipeline emits only one row and no history is available for state-conditional analysis. All numeric claims in this brief are illustrative based on the planned engine design, not from live data. The ICSG monthly refined-copper surplus or deficit, read as the structural supply-demand pillar for COMEX copper.

Deterioration in US corporate credit quality drives safe-haven demand for gold; the z-score of a multi-input credit-stress composite leads gold price direction at credit-regime extremes.

Fiscal stress across the UK, France, Italy, Japan and the US ten-year sovereign markets drives safe-haven rotation into gold; the G10 sovereign-yield stress composite leads GLD price direction at sustained regime extremes.

Central banks are the largest non-private gold holders; the trend in reported monthly net purchases leads gold price direction as structural demand through buying episodes like China-Russia-Turkey 2016 and BRICS de-dollarization 2022-2026.

Aggregated cross-country changes in central-bank gold holdings z-scored on a 60-month window form a regime detector where saturation in either direction has historically preceded above-baseline gold returns.

Fat-tailed gold return distributions coincide with macro-stress regimes that lift gold through safe-haven channels; the 252-day structural kurtosis measurement captures this regime shift.

Central-bank gold accumulation is more constructive when broadly distributed across reporters; the breadth composite has delivered a 36 basis-point edge on forward 60-day gold returns.

Long-term inflation expectations drive gold as an inflation hedge; the Shiller composite has delivered a 130 basis-point edge on forward 60-day gold returns across 36 years.

Negative GDELT Russia tone captures geopolitical stress regimes; Phase minus-1 Russia-stress has delivered 170 basis-point edge on gold forward 60-day returns across 13 years.

Gold weakness over the past five days flags mean-reversion setups; the short-horizon momentum signal has delivered a 67 basis-point edge on forward 60-day gold returns across 36 years.

Constituent gold signals vote bull or bear each day; the net-score composite captures cross-mechanism conviction and delivers a plus-2 to minus-1 percentage-point state-conditional edge on forward 60-day gold returns.

Platinum volatility leads gold volatility when PGM-complex stress transmits across metals; the 1-day-lagged variance spillover coefficient captures cross-metal transmission on a 60-day forward horizon.

GDELT China-military theme tone shifts during geopolitical stress; the tone z-score maps stress to gold safe-haven regimes.

Media tone across democracy and election-fraud themes deteriorates during governance stress; the GDELT basket z-score maps tone deterioration to gold safe-haven regimes on a 60-day forward horizon.

India consumes a quarter of global gold; the monthly import trajectory year-on-year leads gold price direction with elevated physical demand delivering above-baseline forward 60-day returns.

Three defined positioning regimes in gold fire as discrete events roughly 2 to 3 times per year; firing days have historically been followed by above-baseline gold returns at the 60-day horizon.

The gold medium-term versus long-term trend ratio, read as the roll-yield regime proxy for a long gold position.

COMEX gold 20-day log-return z-scored on 252-day rolling window. A cross-market macro-inflection proxy used in the Corn Extremes Contrarian V9 Corn Extremes Contrarian playbook , captures global macro regime (inflation hedging + dollar weakness + commodity-complex direction) that modulates corn forward returns at the 60-day horizon.

How fast ten-year real yields are moving, as the opportunity-cost signal for gold, read daily since 2003.

London vault gold tonnage, read as the daily tape on global ETF and central-bank gold demand.

When retail investors buy physical gold coins in size, something has made them nervous. This signal measures that nervousness.