KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Brazil Supply Shocks
Z32281 – [KC] FIRMS Brazil Sul de Minas Fire Signal
NASA FIRMS satellite fire intensity over the Brazil Sul de Minas coffee belt, as a real-time crop-destruction supply-shock lens for Arabica.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Current reading
-0.135
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Brazil dry-season fire window closed
Signal state
Baseline Fire
58 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
Daily FIRMS satellite
Sample
24-year window
Daily cadence; 2002-11 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUNE 2027
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Sul de Minas is the first-tier Arabica growing belt of Brazil, producing roughly 50 percent of Brazil Arabica from the Mogiana plateau south through Carmo de Minas and Tres Pontas. When satellite-detected fire activity in this belt runs significantly above its 252-day baseline, the signal is reading real-time crop-destruction events (wildfire, drought-driven burn-off, post-harvest clearing) that translate directly into Arabica supply shocks. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.164 at p-value 6e-37 across 5,955 observations; non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling is plus 0.210 at p-value 0.037 across 100 samples, INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT at the 5 pct threshold. Phase +1 high-fire firings deliver a plus 4.14 pp edge above baseline; Phase -1 low-fire firings deliver minus 1.73 pp. 5.87 pp directional spread. Full regime stats and historical case episodes below.
LIVE CHART
KC FIRMS Brazil Sul de Minas Fire Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is 30-day trailing NASA FIRMS fire radiative power over Brazil Sul de Minas, z-scored and tanh-bounded to plus or minus one. Positive composite means fire intensity is running above its 252-day baseline (supply-destruction regime, bullish Arabica). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.135 / tanh
STATE
Baseline Fire
PHASE
-0.14
DAILY IC
+0.164 (p = 6e-37)
NON-OVERLAP
+0.210 (p = 0.037)
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Baseline Fire firing at composite -0.135, 58 trading days running in the NEUTRAL phase. Phase +1 (Fire Intensity) delivers plus 6.85 percent fwd60d / plus 4.14 pp above plus 2.71 pct baseline across 1,346 days. Phase -1 (Quiet Fires) delivers plus 0.98 percent / minus 1.73 pp below baseline across 3,710 days. Daily IC plus 0.164 at p = 6e-37. Non-overlap rho plus 0.210 at p = 0.037 across 100 samples, INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT.
THE FIRE-INTENSITY MECHANISM
Sul de Minas (Mogiana plateau through Carmo de Minas and Tres Pontas) produces about 50 percent of Brazil Arabica. NASA FIRMS VIIRS satellite data detects thermal anomalies at ~375m resolution with daily cadence from 2018; the engine extends via MODIS backfill to 2002. Fire radiative power captures crop-destruction events (wildfire, drought-driven burn-off, post-harvest clearing) that translate directly into supply shocks. 30-day smoothing isolates regime moves from daily noise.
HOW TO POSITION
Short-lead real-time supply-destruction read on Arabica (30-90 days). Fire Intensity firings (composite above plus 0.5) historically coincide with Brazilian dry-season fire events during the June-October window. Pair with TERRACLIMATE water-deficit (medium-lead drought), CHIRPS Cerrado (satellite drought, second-tier belt), CONAB Minas (official supply forecast), and Cecafe realized- price (transaction confirmation).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.135 in the Baseline Fire band. NASA FIRMS fire intensity over Sul de Minas is running near its 252-day baseline. Current NEUTRAL episode began August 2026 and has run 58 trading days.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.135 State Baseline Fire, 58 days running in NEUTRAL phase.
- Sul de Minas FIRMS near baseline NASA FIRMS 30-day trailing fire radiative power over Sul de Minas is near its 252-day baseline; composite in the NEUTRAL band.
- Non-overlap test independently significant (strong validation) Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling delivers rho plus 0.210 with p-value 0.037 across 100 samples; INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT at 5 pct. One of the few KC signals clearing this threshold.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE FIRE-INTENSITY CALL
Composite -0.135, Baseline Fire. NASA FIRMS fire intensity over Sul de Minas is running near its 252-day baseline. Signal firing in the NEUTRAL phase for 58 trading days; forward 60-day edge in Phase 0 historically runs plus 0.93 pp above baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase pattern is strongly monotone. Phase +1 (Fire Intensity) delivers plus 4.14 pp above baseline; Phase 0 (Baseline Fire) delivers plus 0.93 pp; Phase -1 (Quiet Fires) delivers minus 1.73 pp. 5.87 pp directional spread. Non-overlap test independently significant at 5 pct, confirming the daily IC is not an artifact of overlapping windows.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
NASA FIRMS data begins 2018 (VIIRS coverage); engine extends via MODIS backfill to 2002 but MODIS has coarser resolution. Daily cadence allows close monitoring but also means more daily noise than monthly signals. Fire activity concentrates in the June-October dry season; off-window readings carry less information.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,015 post-warmup trading days (2002-11-25 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d: mean plus 2.71 percent (median plus 0.57 percent). Phase +1 (Fire Intensity) delivers +4.14 pp edge; Phase 0 delivers +0.93 pp; Phase -1 (Quiet Fires) delivers -1.73 pp. Non-overlap IC independently significant at p=0.037 (every-60d sampling, n = 100).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Intensity | +1 | 22.4% (1346 d) | +6.85% | +4.14pp | 2024, 2021, 2014 | |
| Baseline Fire TODAY | 0 | 15.9% (959 d) | +3.63% | +0.93pp | 2026 (current), 2022, 2017 | |
| Quiet Fires | -1 | 61.7% (3710 d) | +0.98% | -1.73pp | 2023, 2019, 2015 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 24-year sample
What this measures
30-day trailing average of NASA FIRMS total fire radiative power (total_frp_mw) over the Brazil Sul de Minas commodity belt, z-scored against a 252-day rolling baseline and tanh-bounded to plus or minus one. Positive composite equals above-baseline fire activity (supply-destruction regime, bullish Arabica); negative composite equals below-baseline fire activity (quiet-fire regime, bearish Arabica).
Why it matters
Why NASA FIRMS fire intensity reads Arabica supply
Sul de Minas produces roughly 50 percent of Brazil Arabica from the Mogiana plateau south through Carmo de Minas and Tres Pontas. NASA FIRMS VIIRS satellite detects thermal anomalies at approximately 375-meter resolution with daily revisit cadence. Fire radiative power (FRP) captures crop-destruction events in real time such as wildfire sweeps, drought-driven burn-off, post-harvest field clearing. Elevated fire activity in the Sul de Minas belt during the June-October dry season is a direct supply-destruction signal.
How to use this signal today
Short-lead real-time supply-destruction read on Arabica with 30-90 day forward horizon. Fire Intensity firings historically coincide with Brazilian dry-season supply shocks (2021 compound drought, 2024 drought). Pair with TERRACLIMATE water-deficit (medium-lead PET-AET), CHIRPS Cerrado (satellite precip on second-tier belt), CONAB Minas (official forecasts), Cecafe realized-price (transaction confirmation), and ENSO (long-lead ocean forcing) for stacked drought-plus-fire conviction.
Risk overlay
Validation rests on daily Spearman IC plus 0.164 (p-value 6e-37, N = 5,955) with independently significant non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling (p-value 0.037 on 100 samples). 5.87 pp directional spread. Primary risks are (a) NASA FIRMS VIIRS data begins 2018; MODIS backfill extends to 2002 but with coarser resolution, (b) fire activity concentrates June-October so off-window readings carry less information, and (c) distinguishing crop-destruction fires from post-harvest clearing fires requires context from other signals.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through the NASA FIRMS satellite fire detection methodology, enumerates the 2021 compound drought-plus-fires and the 2024 drought fire season as canonical Phase +1 anchors, and explains how to pair this real-time supply-destruction signal with drought and official forecast lenses.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 07:15 PM ET