THE PLAYBOOKS LIBRARY

All Playbooks, by sector and market

Every live playbook on the site, grouped by commodity sector and specific market. Within each market the strongest playbooks appear first. PROTOTYPE entries have a working version on the legacy davidstendahl.com site and are being ported here. QUEUED entries are in build.

13 live · 46 prototype · 65 queued

SECTOR · 0/2 live

Economics

PAPER

· 0/1 LIVE

Y126Paper vs Real Assets CompositePROTOTYPE

Five lenses on whether paper claims or physical stuff is winning the cycle.

STAGFLATION

· 0/1 LIVE

Y159Stagflation Trap CompositePROTOTYPE

Ten lenses on whether growth is stalling at the same time inflation is rising.

SECTOR · 1/19 live

Livestock & Meats

Feeder Cattle

· 0/2 LIVE

Y1070Feeder Cattle ML-Proposed CompositeQUEUED

Y1169Feeder Cattle Truthsayer Livestock CompositeQUEUED

Lean Hogs

· 1/3 LIVE

Y1023LH Supply Census Composite

A three-input playbook on US pork supply, benchmarked against the CME Lean Hogs back-adjusted tradable return. Blends futures curve shape (50% anchor), hog-corn feed margin (28%), and Canadian feeder-pig imports (22%).

Y1167Lean Hogs Truthsayer Livestock CompositeQUEUED

Y1068Lean Hogs ML-Proposed CompositeQUEUED

Live Cattle

· 0/14 LIVE

Y1069Live Cattle ML-Proposed CompositeQUEUED

Y1168Live Cattle Truthsayer Livestock CompositeQUEUED

Y11807LC Cattle Cycle SupplyQUEUED

Y541LC Cross-Asset Direction CompositeQUEUED

Y5050LC Forward Return Composite (h20)QUEUED

Y1078LC ML v1 CompositeQUEUED

Y6142LC ML v2 CompositeQUEUED

Y11806LC Native Cattle ComplexQUEUED

Y8603LC Native Live-Cattle Supply CompositeQUEUED

Y7534LC Native Live-Cattle Supply Composite (Variant)QUEUED

Y6465LC Native Supply-and-Grazing CompositeQUEUED

Y1550LC Regime Pair SignalQUEUED

Y89001LC Truthsayer Livestock Composite (Reserved YID)QUEUED

Y10881LC Weather Composite (Portfolio-Inverted)QUEUED

SECTOR · 1/22 live

Grains & Oilseeds

Corn

· 1/4 LIVE

Y852Corn Cycle DNA

The seven-input annual corn cycle playbook. The composite verdict ladder is MONOTONICALLY TREND-FOLLOWING in corn forward returns, with both extreme tails highly statistically significant: strong bullish delivers +5.24% corn fwd 60d (HAC t +4.77 significant at the 1 percent level); strong bearish delivers -9.99% (HAC t -6.19 significant at the 1 percent level). All four non-NEUTRAL states are HAC-t significant at the 1 percent threshold.

Y100238Corn Extremes Contrarian V9PROTOTYPE

A TRUE CONTRARIAN composite , when the ladder reads strong bearish, expect corn UP. Built on a weather-drought composite + ENSO + FGIS China velocity + CFTC commercials + gold momentum. All four non-NEUTRAL tails sig at 1% (except at 5%).

Y1359Corn Transport Composite (C-TRD-4)PROTOTYPE

Three US-domestic grain transport signals , river barge rates, rail tariffs, and the 5-component transport-cost composite , blended equal-weight into a 5-state directional-allocator for corn. 60-day ladder cleanly monotonic across all 5 states at 1 percent HAC-t. strong bullish delivers +6.31% corn fwd 60d.

Y1089ML Auto Corn Composite V9PROTOTYPE

Fifteen analytical signal signals weighted by LightGBM gradient-boosted-trees feature importance into a trend-following composite. In-sample ladder spectacular (strong bullish +17.88% HAC-t +12.69 across 276 state-days). Deployable 5-fold CV IC only +0.1996, size off CV, not ladder.

Soybean Oil

· 0/1 LIVE

Y101103BO Extremes ContrarianPROTOTYPE

The 5-state soybean oil contrarian playbook with five analytical signal inputs reading BO renewable diesel feedstock input, Indonesian palm oil competition, 20-day price momentum, BO-HO heating oil basis, and renewable diesel forward-looking economic pull. Forty-five years of continuous sample. The composite verdict ladder is INVERSELY MONOTONIC in BO fwd 60d: strong bearish delivers plus 5.77 percent (edge plus 4.31 pp above baseline, HAC t plus 2.26, significant at 5 percent); strong bullish delivers minus 0.65 percent (edge minus 2.11 pp below baseline). A TRUE contrarian playbook.

Soybeans

· 0/11 LIVE

Y6149Soybean ML Proposed Composite V9PROTOTYPE

Fifteen analytical signal signals selected by LightGBM feature-importance from 71 grade-eligible soybean Zs. Target: soybean 20-day forward log-return. Deployable 5-fold CV IC +0.263 (healthier than ML Auto Corn Composite V9 corn's +0.1996). Current at 19.2 percentile, divergent from Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite V9 Soybean +0.097 NEUTRAL.

Y151Global Rising Tide CompositePROTOTYPE

Five lenses on whether global expansion is synchronized across US, Europe, Japan, China, and EM.

Y100294Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE

Five IC-audited Argentine signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, FAS PSD Argentine soybean stocks anchor (30 percent), Argentine soymeal production YoY INV (25 percent), Argentine soyoil PSD cross-wired to S via -1 flip (20 percent), Argentine Pampas pod-fill heat (15 percent), GDELT Argentine protest INV (10 percent). Closes KYM §15.2 S-E10 seat. ⚠️ ASYMMETRIC LADDER, composite is a BULLISH-REGIME DETECTOR despite 5-state verdict naming.

Y100291Soybean Biofuels Mandate Regime (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE

Five IC-audited biofuels demand signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, EPA RVO BBD mandate anchor, Argentine soyoil exports (internally inverted), Renewable Diesel stocks drawdown (internally inverted), biofuels total demand (RD + Biodiesel feedstock pull), CARB LCFS credit price (dual-component with $100 Tran H3 threshold). Uniform pol=+1 wiring. Completes inst-analysis biofuels trio with Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (inst-analysis) + Soybean Argentine Biofuels Regime (inst-analysis).

Y100290Soybean Brazil Supply Momentum (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE

Five IC-audited South American supply signals blend into a bidirectional rolling-z verdict machine, IBGE Brazilian production YoY anchor, USDA PSD supply/use ratio, CHIRPS Mato Grosso weather, Argentine meal exports (demand-side offset from v3 silent-dead triage), IBGE Brazilian area planted. SUPPLY-side specialist pair to Soybean China Crush Demand (inst-analysis) DEMAND-side specialist. Current -1.21σ at 22.2 percentile with the companion signal PSD S/U at near-max 97.3 pctile.

Y100292Soybean China Crush Demand (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE

Five IC-audited China-focused signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, CNY strength anchor, FGIS China weekly inspections, China export demand aggregator, USDA PSD China imports polarity-flipped, and inspections China destination share. Current +2.58σ at 98.1 percentile, one of the most extreme coordinated surge regimes in 36 years.

Y1025Soybean Five-Axis Multi-Source Composite V9PROTOTYPE

Five orthogonal soybean mechanism-axes, spread persistence anchor + HRS belt drought + ENSO inverted + fast-cadence FGIS China weekly demand + US vs IMF global supply valuation, hand-blended with |corr| ≤ 0.32 orthogonality constraint. Verdict ladder MONOTONIC + ALL 5 STATES 1% HAC-t SIG. strong bullish +9.08% soybean fwd 60d.

Y100293Soybean Palm Oil Substitution (INST_ANALYSIS)PROTOTYPE

Five Tier A/B IC-audited substitution-mechanism signals blend into a rolling-z verdict machine, CPO Discount Cap anchor (Fry H1), ZL/palm premium (Irwin H2 empirically inverted), Global Oil/Meal Ratio (spectacular rare-tail), Global Vegetable Oil Balance, Soy/Palm/CPO Spread (empirically inverted). Monotonic 60d ladder with 3 bull-side bands at 1 percent HAC-t sig.

Y9847Soybean S-DEM-1 Answer (25-member Q&A composite, 92% overlap with Y10506)QUEUED

Twenty-five members at equal 4-percent weight each, same `qanda_equal_weight_v1` workflow as Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite). But this playbook is 92 percent MEMBER-IDENTICAL to Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) (23 of 25 members shared). Only 2 members differ: this playbook includes S China Export Demand Aggregator S china export demand (NEAR MAX 99.3 pctile) + the companion signal (DEAD at 0.000); Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) includes Brazil Mato Grosso drought + the companion signal SA grain harvest. 5th-highest IC weight (0.065) in soybean portfolio.

Y10506Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite)QUEUED

Twenty-five members at equal 4-percent weight each, scattershot auto-batch selection from 178 HIGH-confidence analytical signals mapped to question S-SUP-2 (soybean supply side). 4-band effective ladder because strong bullish unreachable by equal-weight design. 72 percent cross-wired members (wheat / BO / SM / other native targets). 4th-highest IC weight (0.069) in soybean portfolio.

Y11397Soybean META Defensible 1QUEUED

Seven members blended into a hand-weighted composite from xval-validated trust list. Monotonic 60d ladder with ALL 5 bands significant. strong bullish delivers +10.34% soybean fwd 60d (HAC-t +8.28, 1% sig). Mechanism-diverse coverage: cocoa positioning (anchor, inherited cross-wire), UCO substitution, drought, biofuels, FX, palm spreads.

Wheat

· 0/6 LIVE

Y6131Wheat ML Proposed Composite V9PROTOTYPE

Fifteen members selected by LightGBM feature-importance from 30 eligible wheat analytical signals. ⭐ BEST ML composite of session , 5 of 5 CV folds POSITIVE, 1.35x overfit gap, CV mean IC +0.515. Dramatically better-generalizing than corn (ML Auto Corn Composite V9 4.08x) or soybean (Soybean ML Proposed Composite V9 2.61x) ML composites. Current verdict .

Y5052W_FwdRet_Composite_h20QUEUED

Y11836W_HRW_Class_SubstitutionQUEUED

Y6734W_w_sup_14_Answer_v2QUEUED

Y8365W_w_sup_14_Answer_v3QUEUED

Y6967Wheat W-SUP-14 Answer (25-member Q&A composite)QUEUED

Twenty-five members at equal 4% weight each spanning every major wheat producer region. Built 2026-07-01 via `qanda_equal_weight_v1` workflow answering W-SUP-14 (wheat supply side). 2nd-highest IC weight (0.104) in wheat portfolio. All Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) structural caveats apply inherited.

SECTOR · 3/3 live