Research
Presidential Performance
A library of market-backed reports comparing US presidents on jobs, markets, approval, affordability, and more. Every number traces to a local database refreshed nightly. Pick a report to read the data for yourself.
Head-to-head comparisons
Direct president-vs-president, same yardstick.
When you want an apples-to-apples comparison on a single metric — jobs, SPX, approval, affordability — without the noise of different time windows or data definitions.
Trump vs Biden — Matching Window
Same calendar quarters, same economic series: a like-for-like read on who delivered what.
Have You Been Better Off?
The 1980 Reagan question, computed across every president: household finances today vs four years in.
Full rankings
Every president, every term, ranked on one dimension.
When you want the end-to-end leaderboard — not a two-horse race but all 10+ terms sorted on a single series.
Full-Term Ranking
Inauguration-day to term-end: SPX, employment, real wages, deficit, approval. One table, every president since Carter.
Same Days in Office
Ranks presidents only on days their predecessors have reached too — so Trump 2 is compared on day 300, not day 1,460.
Market-timing edges
Does the political calendar move markets more than policy?
A set of narrow, high-specificity scorecards that test whether specific political-calendar windows (October before an election, lame-duck period, Fed-speech weeks) carry measurable return edges.
October Premium
Does the SPX really run hotter the October before a US election? The 70-year sample says maybe — and only under certain conditions.
Election Juice
The fresh-mandate effect: does the first 100 days of a new president produce an abnormal return, and does it reverse by year 2?
Cohort partisan gaps
How did your demographic fare under each party?
Nine BLS-derived cohort scorecards. Hourly wages, participation rate, unemployment, and real-income change — sliced by auto workers, farmers, homeowners, seniors, women, young workers, and more.
Blue vs White Collar
Non-supervisory wages, benefits coverage, union-density change: who paid for the policy mix under each administration?
Homeowners vs Renters
Mortgage affordability, rent burden, home-equity accumulation: the housing-wealth gap by presidential term.
Structural governance
The institutional-baseline state of the country.
Deeper data that frames every market scorecard — SCOTUS ideological alignment, cabinet turnover, controversy rate, SOTU sentiment, scandal-year drag.
SCOTUS Alignment
Supreme-Court ideological drift vs the sitting president’s party: how often did rulings go with the White House, and when did the split flip?
Political Intelligence Report
Composite structural scorecard: cabinet turnover, controversy count, SOTU sentiment, major-events tally. Backs the 265-field V15 scorecard.
2026 election lens
What the data says about the next vote.
Live midterm aggregators, a pre-election baseline model, and the historical ballot-box verdict on every president’s first two years in office.
2026 Midterm Forecast
Latest generic-ballot aggregator, three independent model signals, and the ensemble point forecast for House seat swing.
Midterm Seat Loss Ranking
Every US president since 1926 ranked by House and Senate seats their party lost or gained at the midterm — the voter verdict on their first two years.
Every number traces to a database. Methodology is on every report page.
Questions about a specific report, data source, or how a metric is computed? Send a note.