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Homeowners vs Renters

10 housing-market metrics split across 6 homeowner and 4 renter measures. Which party produced better outcomes on home equity, mortgage rates, and the rent-squeeze across 28 US presidential terms?

Last updated November 06, 2026

 

The partisan gap by housing tenure

Ten housing-market metrics, split across two cohorts: homeowners (6 metrics — home-equity building via Case-Shiller + real median price, mortgage-rate drag on refinancing, housing-starts + permits as a homebuilder-health proxy, and the overall homeownership rate) and renters (4 metrics — real rent CAGR, real CPI shelter, rent-vs-wage growth, and the same 30Y mortgage rate as the first-time-buyer barrier to graduating from renter to owner). For each metric, compute the Democratic-president and Republican-president averages and the gap.

Homeowners — who wins
D 5 · R 1
of 6 metrics (D 83%)
Renters — who wins
D 2 · R 2
of 4 metrics (tie)
Metrics tracked
10
6 homeowner + 4 renter
Terms covered
28
US presidential terms with coverage

A metric is “won” by the party with the better direction-aware average (higher CAGR for equity-building + building activity; lower average for mortgage rate, rent CAGR, and shelter CAGR). Ties and insufficient-data metrics are not counted.

Homeowners — 6 metrics

Home-equity accumulation (real Case-Shiller HPI, real median sale price), homebuilder-health proxies (housing starts + permits), mortgage-rate drag on refinancing, and the overall homeownership rate. The winning cell on each row is highlighted.

Metric Dir Democratic avg Republican avg Gap (D−R) Source
Real Case-Shiller HPI (CAGR %) — home-equity build ↑ +1.78%(n=5) +0.88%(n=5) +0.90% derived:CSUSHPINSA/CPI
30Y Mortgage Rate (avg %, lower=better) ↓ +6.71%(n=6) +8.30%(n=10) -1.59% fred:MORTGAGE30US
Housing Starts (CAGR %) — homebuilder health ↑ +3.46%(n=9) -4.47%(n=10) +7.93% fred:HOUST
New Housing Permits (CAGR %) — pipeline ↑ +3.62%(n=9) -2.81%(n=10) +6.43% fred:PERMIT
Real Median Home Sale Price (CAGR %) ↑ +2.15%(n=8) +0.42%(n=10) +1.72% derived:MSPUS/CPI
Homeownership Rate (avg %) — share of owners ↑ +64.88%(n=8) +65.31%(n=10) -0.43% fred:RHORUSQ156N

Renters — 4 metrics

Real CPI rent CAGR, real CPI shelter CAGR, rent-growth-minus-wage-growth (the renter squeeze), and the 30Y mortgage rate as the barrier to graduating from renter to owner.

Metric Dir Democratic avg Republican avg Gap (D−R) Source
Real CPI Rent of Primary Residence (CAGR %, lower=better) ↓ -0.00%(n=10) -0.06%(n=12) +0.06% derived:CUUR0000SEHA/CPI
Real CPI Shelter (CAGR %, lower=better) ↓ +0.65%(n=9) +0.42%(n=12) +0.23% derived:CUSR0000SAH1/CPI
Rent growth minus wage growth (pp/yr, lower=better) ↓ -0.43(n=7) -0.27(n=10) -0.16 derived:CUUR0000SEHA-AHETPI
30Y Mortgage Rate (avg %, lower=better) — first-time-buyer barrier ↓ +6.71%(n=6) +8.30%(n=10) -1.59% fred:MORTGAGE30US

Where Donald J. Trump II ‡ is landing today

Donald J. Trump II ‡ is 1.79 years into his term (2025-01-20 – today). Current readings across the 10 metrics (direction-aware, see table below). This row updates nightly as fresh housing + CPI releases arrive, and will enter the historical D/R averages once the term completes.

Metric Cohort Current vs Dem avg vs Rep avg
Real Case-Shiller HPI (CAGR %) — home-equity build OWNER -0.38% -2.16% -1.26%
30Y Mortgage Rate (avg %, lower=better) OWNER +6.59% -0.12% -1.71%
Housing Starts (CAGR %) — homebuilder health OWNER -5.76% -9.22% -1.29%
New Housing Permits (CAGR %) — pipeline OWNER -2.39% -6.01% +0.42%
Real Median Home Sale Price (CAGR %) OWNER -6.24% -8.39% -6.66%
Homeownership Rate (avg %) — share of owners OWNER +65.27% +0.39% -0.04%
Real CPI Rent of Primary Residence (CAGR %, lower=better) RENTER -0.30% -0.30% -0.24%
Real CPI Shelter (CAGR %, lower=better) RENTER +0.01% -0.64% -0.41%
Rent growth minus wage growth (pp/yr, lower=better) RENTER -0.55 -0.12 -0.28
30Y Mortgage Rate (avg %, lower=better) — first-time-buyer barrier RENTER +6.59% -0.12% -1.71%

Methodology

The cohort split. Homeowner metrics measure wealth-accumulation benefits (real Case-Shiller HPI CAGR, real median sale price CAGR, homeownership-rate share average), refinancing-cost drag (30Y mortgage rate average), and homebuilder-health proxies (housing starts + permits CAGR). Renter metrics measure cost-of-shelter experience (real CPI rent CAGR, real CPI shelter CAGR, rent-minus-wage growth) and the same 30Y mortgage rate — because it is the primary barrier preventing renters from becoming owners. Each metric is explicitly tagged to one cohort in the source data.

Win rule. Within each metric, the party with the better direction-aware average wins. For equity-building CAGRs and homebuilder activity, “better” = higher. For mortgage rate, rent CAGR, and shelter CAGR averages, better = lower. Ties and insufficient-data metrics are not counted. The headline tally (D 5 / R 1 on homeowner metrics; D 2 / R 2 on renter metrics) is a simple metric count, not weighted by sample size or statistical significance.

Sample. 28 presidential terms. Older terms have smaller n per metric because Case-Shiller HPI starts in 1987 (FRED CSUSHPINSA) and the 30Y mortgage series starts in 1971 (FRED MORTGAGE30US). Term-level averaging uses CAGR for level series and simple time-weighted mean for ratelike series (mortgage rate, homeownership rate).

Data sources.

  • Case-Shiller HPI: FRED CSUSHPINSA, deflated by CPI.
  • 30Y mortgage rate: FRED MORTGAGE30US (weekly → term average).
  • Housing starts + permits: FRED HOUST + PERMIT.
  • Homeownership rate: FRED RHORUSQ156N.
  • Rent + shelter CPI: BLS CUUR0000SEHA (rent) + SAH1 (shelter), deflated by headline CPI.

All stored in presidential_performance.db, regenerated on first-Friday nights alongside the BLS Employment Situation release and refreshed nightly for timestamp currency.

Caveats.

  • Incumbent presidents inherit housing markets. 2008-era home-equity destruction was a credit-cycle event, not a policy outcome of whoever was in office.
  • The 30Y mortgage rate reflects Fed policy + inflation expectations far more than presidential housing policy. Attributing it to the sitting party is a stretch.
  • The homeownership rate moves very slowly (<1% over a 4-year term); averaged differences between D and R are unlikely to be meaningful at the 5th decimal.
  • Small-n metrics (n<5 for a party) produce noisy averages that one outlier can flip. Read the n values in parentheses before drawing conclusions.

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