THE LEAD LAG WATCHBOARD

Live windows across the estate

12 observational lead signals across 6 sectors (Energy, Equity, Grains, Livestock, Metals, Softs). Each window carries a historical base rate, a progress clock, and a published ledger of every prior fire. Windows marked ARMED are forming conditions where the lead value is approaching but has not yet crossed its threshold. Windows are observations, not trades.

Reader note. This page shows windows opened by lead signals. A window is not a trade. Each window is published with its full historical ledger, wins and losses. Base rates are over all historical fires; the realized path this session may diverge for regime dependent reasons. No buy or sell calls are implied.

Active windows (2)

ACTIVEOBSERVATIONALGlobal night-fire power pulse to Gold

Z500001 → GC (Gold)
Opened
2026-10-26
At price
$4,038.40
Day
9 of 20
Remaining
11 trading days
Realized so far
+0.90%
Expected by now
+0.25%
 AHEAD
Base rate. 71 prior fires
Hit: 57%Mean: +0.57%Best: +10.01%Worst: -14.61%

Global nighttime VIIRS thermal detections across 1,039 power-plant AOIs spike above day-of-year climatology. Physical-inflation pulse signature. Signal grades C unconditionally but B-grade inside inflation regimes (2025-2026 IC +0.18 and +0.45 respectively).

ACTIVELIVEFeeder Cattle CFTC positioning extreme to Feeder Cattle

Z15209 → FC (Feeder Cattle)
Opened
2026-10-14
At price
$340.95
Day
17 of 20
Remaining
3 trading days
Realized so far
-5.46%
Expected by now
+0.81%
 BEHIND
Base rate. 18 prior fires
Hit: 55%Mean: +0.95%Best: +8.56%Worst: -7.81%

Feeder cattle CFTC managed-money net positioning z-score reaches extreme. Positioning extremes historically precede mean-reversion moves in feeder cattle futures.

Recently closed (8)

CLOSEDLIVEPeru Southern Aquifer stress to Copper

Z32329 → HG (Copper)
Opened
2026-10-08
At price
$656.85
Day
21 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 9 prior fires
Hit: 55%Mean: +0.13%Best: +7.77%Worst: -4.77%

GRACE satellite aquifer-storage deficit across the Peru Southern copper-producing region exceeds climatological norm. Aquifer stress correlates with mine-water rationing and disruption risk at major Southern Peru operations.

CLOSEDLIVEUS power-plant thermal composite to Natural Gas

Z11572 → NG (Natural Gas)
Opened
2026-08-31
At price
$3.48
Day
47 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 73 prior fires
Hit: 42%Mean: -0.38%Best: +38.53%Worst: -26.37%

1,038 US power-plant VIIRS thermal detections across all 49 states spike above day-of-year climatology. Generation-demand nowcast; higher aggregate thermal activity implies elevated gas-fired burn (approximately 40 percent of US electricity is gas).

CLOSEDLIVEGold-Oil deflation pulse to WTI Crude

Z96598 → CL (WTI Crude)
Opened
2026-09-01
At price
$84.60
Day
46 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 31 prior fires
Hit: 70%Mean: +2.83%Best: +26.05%Worst: -25.65%

Gold-oil ratio z-score rises above threshold, consistent with deflationary macro regime where gold outperforms real-economy commodities. High-frequency fire signal; one of the most-firing streams in the estate.

CLOSEDLIVELOW SAMPLEIndonesia palm oil supply tightness to Soy Oil

Z32214 → BO (Soy Oil)
Opened
2026-07-02
At price
$7,483.24
Day
89 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 3 prior fires
Hit: 100%Mean: +2.03%Best: +4.51%Worst: +0.09%

Indonesian palm oil supply metrics indicate tightening. Palm and soy oil are substitutes in the global vegetable oil complex; supply-side pressure on palm transmits to soy oil demand within 20 trading days.

CLOSEDLIVECHIRPS Brazil center-south precip to Sugar

Z3120 → SB (Sugar)
Opened
2026-10-02
At price
$19.93
Day
24 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 7 prior fires
Hit: 42%Mean: -0.72%Best: +5.98%Worst: -12.93%

CHIRPS satellite precipitation across the Brazil center-south cane belt exceeds the day-of-year baseline. Elevated precipitation signals above-norm crush conditions; the signal's polarity is calibrated to the regional cane-mill cycle.

CLOSEDLIVEUS weekly hog slaughter YoY to Lean Hogs

Z3289 → LH (Lean Hogs)
Opened
2026-06-12
At price
$266.16
Day
102 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 35 prior fires
Hit: 60%Mean: +1.15%Best: +10.94%Worst: -10.11%

US weekly hog slaughter year-over-year change exceeds historical norm. Elevated slaughter pace indicates supply pressure that transmits bearishly to lean hogs on a 20-day lag.

CLOSEDLIVEBanking health KRE XLF spread to SPY

Z213 → SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Opened
2026-08-12
At price
$7,748.50
Day
61 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 16 prior fires
Hit: 81%Mean: +1.30%Best: +9.36%Worst: -9.35%

KRE regional-bank vs XLF large-cap financials spread deteriorates beyond historical norm. Regional-bank underperformance has historically been a lead indicator of broader credit stress with an SPY lag of several weeks.

CLOSEDLIVEBusiness cycle clock XLI XLP to Industrials

Z178 → XLI (Industrials ETF)
Opened
2026-10-02
At price
$7,722.72
Day
25 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 25 prior fires
Hit: 76%Mean: +1.98%Best: +8.62%Worst: -3.98%

XLI industrial-sector performance relative to XLP consumer-staples defines a classic business-cycle clock. Signal extreme in the positive direction indicates risk-on regime that historically favors cyclical rotation.

Dormant (2)

DORMANTLIVELOW SAMPLEUS wheat ending stocks squeeze to Wheat

Z4406 → W (Wheat)
Opened
n/a
At price
n/a
Day
0 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 1 prior fires
Hit: 100%Mean: +6.50%Best: +6.50%Worst: +6.50%

US wheat ending-stocks YoY change inverted. Elevated signal value reflects tightening year-over-year stocks relative to demand, a fundamental tailwind for wheat futures.

DORMANTLIVEBrazil arabica water deficit to Coffee

Z6524 → KC (Coffee)
Opened
n/a
At price
n/a
Day
0 of 20
Remaining
0 trading days
Base rate. 10 prior fires
Hit: 60%Mean: +5.27%Best: +16.33%Worst: -7.94%

Brazilian Minas Gerais coffee-belt moisture deficit intensifies. Arabica yield response to flowering-window moisture stress transmits to coffee futures with a lag matching the flowering-to-maturation calendar.

Historical ledger. Full prior fires per window

Global night-fire power pulse to Gold. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 57%Mean: +0.57%Best: +10.01%Worst: -14.61%N=71
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-09-16 2026-10-14 $4,387.50 $4,107.90 ▼ -6.37%
2026-07-02 2026-07-31 $4,184.30 $4,107.00 ▼ -1.85%
2026-04-08 2026-05-06 $4,869.00 $4,786.10 ▼ -1.70%
2026-02-24 2026-03-24 $5,300.30 $4,525.90 ▼ -14.61%
2026-01-13 2026-02-11 $4,760.40 $5,222.50 ▲ +9.71%
2025-12-11 2026-01-12 $4,474.30 $4,776.00 ▲ +6.74%
2025-10-31 2025-12-01 $4,194.30 $4,436.10 ▲ +5.76%
2025-09-10 2025-10-08 $3,879.80 $4,268.30 ▲ +10.01%
2025-08-08 2025-09-08 $3,689.10 $3,875.20 ▲ +5.04%
2025-06-24 2025-07-23 $3,589.20 $3,652.90 ▲ +1.77%
2025-05-13 2025-06-11 $3,531.80 $3,599.00 ▲ +1.90%
2025-04-10 2025-05-09 $3,461.50 $3,628.00 ▲ +4.81%

Peru Southern Aquifer stress to Copper. Last 9 matured fires

Hit: 55%Mean: +0.13%Best: +7.77%Worst: -4.77%N=9
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-10-08 2026-11-05 $656.85 $627.00 ▼ -4.54%
2025-11-05 2025-12-04 $498.60 $537.35 ▲ +7.77%
2024-09-20 2024-10-18 $434.30 $438.45 ▲ +0.96%
2023-09-13 2023-10-11 $379.30 $361.20 ▼ -4.77%
2022-09-06 2022-10-04 $346.20 $349.00 ▲ +0.81%
2021-10-04 2021-11-01 $423.85 $439.35 ▲ +3.66%
2020-09-11 2020-10-09 $303.95 $308.25 ▲ +1.41%
2019-09-09 2019-10-07 $262.75 $257.70 ▼ -1.92%
2018-11-20 2018-12-19 $277.65 $271.60 ▼ -2.18%

US power-plant thermal composite to Natural Gas. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 42%Mean: -0.38%Best: +38.53%Worst: -26.37%N=73
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-08-31 2026-09-29 $3.48 $3.40 ▼ -2.32%
2026-07-06 2026-08-03 $3.81 $3.37 ▼ -11.51%
2026-04-08 2026-05-06 $3.61 $3.47 ▼ -3.85%
2026-03-03 2026-03-31 $3.91 $3.77 ▼ -3.55%
2026-01-29 2026-02-27 $4.71 $3.71 ▼ -21.14%
2025-12-26 2026-01-27 $3.33 $4.61 ▲ +38.53%
2025-11-25 2025-12-24 $3.62 $3.21 ▼ -11.14%
2025-10-22 2025-11-19 $3.36 $3.85 ▲ +14.59%
2025-09-18 2025-10-16 $3.15 $2.85 ▼ -9.61%
2025-08-19 2025-09-17 $3.07 $3.31 ▲ +8.02%
2025-05-13 2025-06-11 $4.45 $3.94 ▼ -11.44%
2025-04-11 2025-05-12 $4.49 $4.45 ▼ -0.93%

Gold-Oil deflation pulse to WTI Crude. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 70%Mean: +2.83%Best: +26.05%Worst: -25.65%N=31
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-09-01 2026-09-30 $84.60 $89.06 ▲ +5.28%
2026-07-14 2026-08-11 $73.11 $77.14 ▲ +5.50%
2026-06-02 2026-07-01 $85.00 $63.20 ▼ -25.65%
2026-04-21 2026-05-19 $77.90 $94.42 ▲ +21.21%
2026-03-06 2026-04-06 $74.79 $94.28 ▲ +26.05%
2025-01-14 2025-02-12 $56.94 $53.32 ▼ -6.35%
2024-03-20 2024-04-18 $55.38 $56.31 ▲ +1.68%
2024-02-16 2024-03-18 $53.16 $55.99 ▲ +5.31%
2023-10-16 2023-11-13 $57.91 $53.16 ▼ -8.21%
2023-09-01 2023-10-02 $56.75 $59.41 ▲ +4.69%
2023-07-28 2023-08-25 $53.13 $52.95 ▼ -0.33%
2022-10-10 2022-11-07 $59.46 $60.57 ▲ +1.87%

Indonesia palm oil supply tightness to Soy Oil. Last 3 matured fires

Hit: 100%Mean: +2.03%Best: +4.51%Worst: +0.09%N=3
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-07-02 2026-07-31 $7,483.24 $7,489.72 ▲ +0.09%
2023-07-05 2023-08-02 $4,446.82 $4,513.39 ▲ +1.50%
2020-07-02 2020-07-31 $3,130.01 $3,271.12 ▲ +4.51%

US wheat ending stocks squeeze to Wheat. Last 1 matured fires

Hit: 100%Mean: +6.50%Best: +6.50%Worst: +6.50%N=1
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2025-10-14 2025-11-11 $565.25 $602.00 ▲ +6.50%

Brazil arabica water deficit to Coffee. Last 10 matured fires

Hit: 60%Mean: +5.27%Best: +16.33%Worst: -7.94%N=10
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2025-07-02 2025-07-31 $297.95 $295.80 ▼ -0.72%
2024-05-02 2024-05-31 $208.65 $222.35 ▲ +6.57%
2023-07-05 2023-08-02 $161.05 $166.95 ▲ +3.66%
2022-06-02 2022-07-01 $238.25 $228.45 ▼ -4.11%
2021-07-02 2021-08-02 $152.55 $172.80 ▲ +13.27%
2021-05-04 2021-06-02 $138.90 $161.15 ▲ +16.02%
2020-07-02 2020-07-31 $102.25 $118.95 ▲ +16.33%
2019-07-02 2019-07-31 $108.25 $99.65 ▼ -7.94%
2018-07-03 2018-08-01 $108.35 $108.05 ▼ -0.28%
2017-07-05 2017-08-02 $127.65 $140.35 ▲ +9.95%

CHIRPS Brazil center-south precip to Sugar. Last 7 matured fires

Hit: 42%Mean: -0.72%Best: +5.98%Worst: -12.93%N=7
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-10-02 2026-10-30 $19.93 $19.36 ▼ -2.86%
2025-10-02 2025-10-30 $16.40 $14.28 ▼ -12.93%
2024-10-02 2024-10-30 $22.68 $22.22 ▼ -2.03%
2023-10-03 2023-10-31 $25.67 $27.09 ▲ +5.53%
2020-10-02 2020-10-30 $13.55 $14.36 ▲ +5.98%
2019-10-02 2019-10-30 $12.89 $12.41 ▼ -3.72%
2017-10-03 2017-10-31 $14.04 $14.74 ▲ +4.99%

US weekly hog slaughter YoY to Lean Hogs. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 60%Mean: +1.15%Best: +10.94%Worst: -10.11%N=35
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-06-12 2026-07-14 $266.16 $275.68 ▲ +3.58%
2026-04-27 2026-05-26 $263.43 $258.45 ▼ -1.89%
2026-03-16 2026-04-14 $266.85 $268.87 ▲ +0.76%
2026-01-16 2026-02-17 $270.87 $276.67 ▲ +2.14%
2025-12-12 2026-01-13 $264.18 $253.98 ▼ -3.86%
2025-09-19 2025-10-17 $277.27 $285.94 ▲ +3.13%
2025-07-18 2025-08-15 $243.72 $270.38 ▲ +10.94%
2025-06-13 2025-07-15 $261.12 $245.65 ▼ -5.92%
2025-01-17 2025-02-18 $238.56 $246.29 ▲ +3.24%
2024-12-02 2024-12-31 $240.63 $229.32 ▼ -4.70%
2024-08-23 2024-09-23 $230.89 $224.72 ▼ -2.67%
2024-07-19 2024-08-16 $211.37 $227.50 ▲ +7.63%

Feeder Cattle CFTC positioning extreme to Feeder Cattle. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 55%Mean: +0.95%Best: +8.56%Worst: -7.81%N=18
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-07-15 2026-08-12 $349.95 $346.35 ▼ -1.03%
2024-06-05 2024-07-05 $254.82 $261.48 ▲ +2.61%
2023-11-01 2023-11-30 $238.57 $219.95 ▼ -7.81%
2023-01-18 2023-02-15 $179.50 $187.32 ▲ +4.36%
2022-08-31 2022-09-29 $182.45 $177.32 ▼ -2.81%
2022-04-06 2022-05-05 $157.10 $160.32 ▲ +2.05%
2022-03-02 2022-03-30 $158.30 $155.97 ▼ -1.47%
2021-12-22 2022-01-21 $161.78 $160.28 ▼ -0.93%
2021-10-27 2021-11-24 $156.50 $166.93 ▲ +6.66%
2021-09-22 2021-10-20 $154.80 $155.93 ▲ +0.73%
2020-10-07 2020-11-04 $138.50 $137.70 ▼ -0.58%
2020-06-17 2020-07-16 $133.57 $142.60 ▲ +6.76%

Banking health KRE XLF spread to SPY. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 81%Mean: +1.30%Best: +9.36%Worst: -9.35%N=16
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-08-12 2026-09-10 $7,748.50 $7,591.70 ▼ -2.02%
2025-12-10 2026-01-09 $6,886.68 $6,966.28 ▲ +1.16%
2024-11-07 2024-12-06 $5,973.10 $6,090.27 ▲ +1.96%
2024-08-26 2024-09-24 $5,616.84 $5,732.93 ▲ +2.07%
2024-07-22 2024-08-19 $5,564.41 $5,608.25 ▲ +0.79%
2022-09-14 2022-10-12 $3,946.01 $3,577.03 ▼ -9.35%
2022-07-19 2022-08-16 $3,936.69 $4,305.20 ▲ +9.36%
2022-06-15 2022-07-15 $3,789.99 $3,863.16 ▲ +1.93%
2022-02-28 2022-03-28 $4,373.94 $4,575.52 ▲ +4.61%
2022-01-18 2022-02-15 $4,577.11 $4,471.07 ▼ -2.32%
2021-05-14 2021-06-14 $4,173.85 $4,255.15 ▲ +1.95%
2020-11-10 2020-12-09 $3,545.53 $3,672.82 ▲ +3.59%

Business cycle clock XLI XLP to Industrials. Last 12 matured fires

Hit: 76%Mean: +1.98%Best: +8.62%Worst: -3.98%N=25
Opened Closed Open px Close px Realized
2026-10-02 2026-10-30 $7,722.72 $7,580.07 ▼ -1.85%
2026-07-31 2026-08-28 $7,489.72 $7,711.76 ▲ +2.96%
2026-05-22 2026-06-23 $7,473.47 $7,365.46 ▼ -1.45%
2026-03-18 2026-04-16 $6,624.70 $7,041.28 ▲ +6.29%
2026-02-17 2026-03-17 $6,843.22 $6,716.09 ▼ -1.86%
2025-05-13 2025-06-11 $5,886.55 $6,022.24 ▲ +2.31%
2025-03-26 2025-04-24 $5,712.20 $5,484.77 ▼ -3.98%
2024-12-20 2025-01-23 $5,930.85 $6,118.71 ▲ +3.17%
2024-09-20 2024-10-18 $5,702.55 $5,864.67 ▲ +2.84%
2024-07-23 2024-08-20 $5,555.74 $5,597.12 ▲ +0.74%
2024-06-13 2024-07-15 $5,433.74 $5,631.22 ▲ +3.63%
2023-05-31 2023-06-29 $4,179.83 $4,396.44 ▲ +5.18%

Watchboard prototype. Generated 2026-11-07 15:22. Nightly refresh via run_nightly.py watchboard slot once wired.