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Full-Term Ranking

Every president since Herbert Hoover ranked across up to 24 economic + market metrics. The headline is the fair comparison — only terms sharing a full data set — but the full 28-term table is here too, with a clear read on which cohorts win where.

Last updated November 07, 2026

 

The fair comparison — only terms sharing a full data set

Mean rank across 15–24 economic + market metrics (SPX, 10Y yield, HPI, nonfarm payrolls, CPI, unemployment, real wages, kitchen-table grocery prices, LFP, savings rate, 30yr mortgage). Only the 12 terms since Carter are shown — terms before 1977 had incomplete coverage of several series (e.g., trimmed-mean PCE starts 1978, kitchen-table CPI starts 1984), so they are excluded from this apples-to-apples comparison. Lower mean rank = ranks better on more metrics. Minimum metrics for inclusion: 15.

Rank President / Term Party Mean rank Metrics
1 Bill Clinton II D 7.18 22
2 Bill Clinton I D 7.32 22
3 Barack Obama II D 8.36 22
4 Ronald Reagan II R 8.80 20
5 Donald J. Trump I R 9.18 22
6 Joseph R. Biden I D 10.23 22
7 George W. Bush I R 10.64 22
8 Ronald Reagan I R 10.74 19
9 Barack Obama I D 10.86 22
10 George W. Bush II R 11.27 22
11 George H.W. Bush I R 11.33 21
12 Jimmy Carter I D 11.83 18

All 28 completed terms since Herbert Hoover

The widest possible sample. Terms before the 1970s had fewer metrics available, so their mean rank is less robust — read the metric-count column with that in mind. Every data point is sourced from either FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or BLS; the series names, release cadences, and database tables are listed in Methodology below.

Rank President / Term Party Mean rank Metrics
1 Calvin Coolidge I R 3.00 2
2 Bill Clinton II D 7.18 22
3 Bill Clinton I D 7.32 22
4 Barack Obama II D 8.36 22
5 Dwight D. Eisenhower I R 8.50 10
6 Ronald Reagan II R 8.80 20
7 Franklin D. Roosevelt II D 8.80 5
8 Donald J. Trump I R 9.18 22
9 Lyndon B. Johnson II D 9.54 13
10 Lyndon B. Johnson I D 9.62 13
11 Joseph R. Biden I D 10.23 22
12 Harry S. Truman II D 10.50 8
13 George W. Bush I R 10.64 22
14 John F. Kennedy I D 10.73 11
15 Ronald Reagan I R 10.74 19
16 Barack Obama I D 10.86 22
17 Richard M. Nixon I R 11.07 14
18 George W. Bush II R 11.27 22
19 George H.W. Bush I R 11.33 21
20 Jimmy Carter I D 11.83 18
21 Harry S. Truman I D 12.62 8
22 Dwight D. Eisenhower II R 12.91 11
23 Gerald R. Ford I R 13.71 14
24 Franklin D. Roosevelt I D 14.00 2
25 Franklin D. Roosevelt (term 4) D 14.40 5
26 Herbert Hoover I R 14.50 2
27 Richard M. Nixon II R 15.57 14
28 Franklin D. Roosevelt (term 3) D 18.00 5

Split by who the metrics help most

The 24 metrics split naturally into three cohorts based on who benefits from them. A president might rank near the top for asset holders and middle for ladder climbers, or vice versa. Both pictures are real; neither alone is the whole story.

Asset holders

Metrics owners benefit from: equity returns, house-price appreciation, bond-yield levels, credit spreads.

Rank President / Term Party Mean rank Metrics
1 Calvin Coolidge I R 1.00 1
2 Franklin D. Roosevelt (term 4) D 2.00 1
3 Franklin D. Roosevelt I D 3.00 1
4 Bill Clinton I D 3.50 2
5 Lyndon B. Johnson I D 4.00 1
6 Bill Clinton II D 5.50 2
7 Donald J. Trump I R 6.00 2
8 Barack Obama I D 6.50 2
9 Joseph R. Biden I D 7.00 2
10 Dwight D. Eisenhower I R 8.00 1
11 Barack Obama II D 9.00 2
12 Harry S. Truman II D 10.00 1
13 Ronald Reagan II R 11.00 1
14 George H.W. Bush I R 14.00 1
15 Gerald R. Ford I R 15.00 1

Ladder climbers

Metrics working-age wage-earners benefit from: payroll growth, real wages, LFP, construction + leisure jobs, mortgage affordability, savings rate.

Rank President / Term Party Mean rank Metrics
1 Franklin D. Roosevelt II D 5.33 3
2 Lyndon B. Johnson II D 6.43 7
3 Joseph R. Biden I D 6.62 8
4 Richard M. Nixon I R 6.62 8
5 Bill Clinton II D 7.75 8
6 Bill Clinton I D 7.88 8
7 Jimmy Carter I D 8.75 8
8 Harry S. Truman I D 9.00 4
9 Barack Obama II D 9.50 8
10 Ronald Reagan II R 9.62 8
11 Harry S. Truman II D 9.75 4
12 Ronald Reagan I R 10.62 8
13 Donald J. Trump I R 11.88 8
14 Gerald R. Ford I R 12.12 8
15 George W. Bush II R 13.38 8

Everyone

Metrics that cut across both cohorts: headline + core inflation, unemployment, food/energy CPI, kitchen-table grocery prices.

Rank President / Term Party Mean rank Metrics
1 Herbert Hoover I R 1.00 1
2 Franklin D. Roosevelt II D 2.00 1
3 Franklin D. Roosevelt (term 4) D 3.00 1
4 Dwight D. Eisenhower I R 3.40 5
5 Lyndon B. Johnson I D 4.60 5
6 Calvin Coolidge I R 5.00 1
7 John F. Kennedy I D 6.00 5
8 Bill Clinton II D 7.08 12
9 Barack Obama II D 7.50 12
10 Bill Clinton I D 7.58 12
11 Donald J. Trump I R 7.92 12
12 George W. Bush I R 7.92 12
13 Ronald Reagan II R 8.00 11
14 Dwight D. Eisenhower II R 8.00 5
15 George W. Bush II R 9.17 12

In progress — Trump II notional rank

Trump II is currently 656 days into his second term and holds a notional mean rank of 11.41 across 22 of the 24 metrics. Treat that number with the asterisk the data deserves: Cumulative growth metrics (CPI, payrolls, SPX cum, etc.) are mechanically lower over a partial term, biasing the notional rank in favor of low-direction metrics and against up-direction metrics. Read with care.

Methodology + the 24 metrics

How the ranking works. For each metric, rank the terms 1 through N where 1 is the best outcome under the metric’s better-direction convention (up = higher is better, down = lower is better, mixed = context-dependent). A president’s overall score is the mean of their ranks across all metrics they have data for. Lower mean rank = better overall standing.

Why the “fair” table is the headline. Older terms (FDR, Hoover, Coolidge) have 2–5 metrics available vs 20–22 for post-Carter terms. A 2-metric mean is noise; a 22-metric mean is a signal. The fair cut requires at least 15 metrics so every term is being judged on a comparable set.

Data sources. All series pulled from presidential_performance.db (59 MB, local SQLite). Upstream: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for macro + markets + inflation; BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) for employment + wages; BEA for GDP-adjacent series. Refreshed nightly by the Presidents project orchestrator.

The 24 metrics (cohort · dimension · metric · unit · better · n terms with coverage):

Cohort Dim Metric Unit Better n terms
Asset Holder markets S&P 500 (annualized return over term) %/yr ↑ 28
Asset Holder markets 10-Year Treasury Yield (avg) % ↔ 18
Asset Holder markets High-Yield Spread (avg, bps) bps ↓ 8
Asset Holder housing Case-Shiller HPI (cum %) % ↔ 10
Ladder Climber housing 30-Yr Mortgage Rate (avg) % ↓ 15
Ladder Climber purchasing power Avg Hourly Earnings, nominal (cum %) % ↑ 17
Ladder Climber purchasing power Real Avg Hourly Earnings (cum %) % ↑ 17
Ladder Climber jobs Total Nonfarm Payrolls (cum %) % ↑ 25
Ladder Climber jobs LFP Prime Age (avg) % ↑ 22
Ladder Climber jobs Construction Employment (cum %) % ↑ 25
Ladder Climber jobs Leisure & Hospitality Employment (cum %) % ↑ 25
Ladder Climber fiscal Personal Saving Rate (avg) % ↑ 19
Shared inflation Headline CPI (cum %) % ↓ 22
Shared inflation Core CPI (cum %) % ↓ 20
Shared inflation Food CPI (cum %) % ↓ 28
Shared inflation Energy CPI (cum %) % ↓ 20
Shared inflation Trimmed Mean PCE 12m YoY (avg) % ↓ 12
Shared jobs Unemployment Rate (avg) % ↓ 22
Shared kitchen table Eggs ($/doz avg) $/doz ↓ 12
Shared kitchen table Ground Beef ($/lb avg) $/lb ↓ 11
Shared kitchen table Bacon ($/lb avg) $/lb ↓ 12
Shared kitchen table Whole Chicken ($/lb avg) $/lb ↓ 12
Shared kitchen table Sirloin Steak ($/lb avg) $/lb ↓ 10
Shared kitchen table Gasoline ($/gal avg) $/gal ↓ 9

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