C · Analytic
Y852 Corn Cycle DNA
The seven-input annual corn cycle playbook. The composite verdict ladder is MONOTONICALLY TREND-FOLLOWING in corn forward returns, with both extreme tails highly statistically significant: strong bullish delivers +5.24% corn fwd 60d (HAC t +4.77 significant at the 1 percent level); strong bearish delivers -9.99% (HAC t -6.19 significant at the 1 percent level). All four non-NEUTRAL states are HAC-t significant at the 1 percent threshold.
At a glance
Current composite
+0.1784
The seven-input weighted-blend composite on the plus-or-minus one scale (post Corn…
Verdict
Neutral
10 days in NEUTRAL state (lower half of band post-patch)
All-time percentile
71.4th
Lower quartile of 38 years of composite history
strong bullish days
123
1.4% of sample
strong bearish days
77
0.9% of sample
Current verdict corn fwd 60d
+0.16%
Mean when verdict is NEUTRAL, 5,450 state-days, HAC t +0.30, edge +0.65pp
As of 2026-10-30. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The US corn crop moves through a repeating annual cycle every year. Planting runs April through May. Emergence runs April through June. Silking peaks mid-July. Grain fill runs July through August. Harvest runs September through November. Storage and export movement runs November through the following July. This playbook reads that cycle through seven analytical signal inputs that each capture a different dimension of the corn supply-and-demand regime. First, corn development pace from the USDA weekly Crop Progress report (20 percent weight, the single highest-tier input). Second, mid-season crop condition week-over-week delta from the same NASS source (15 percent). Third, the CBOT December-nearby calendar spread as a market-priced regime read (15 percent). Fourth, Brazilian cane-sugar exports year-over-year as a cane-ethanol-substitution cross-commodity channel (15 percent). Fifth, US corn ending stocks year-over-year from the USDA WASDE report (15 percent, wired contrarian to its direct direction). Sixth, FAO global cereal price year-over-year as a global grain-stress cross-corroboration (10 percent). Seventh, corn silking pace against the five-year same-week norm (10 percent). The weighted blend reaches the plus-or-minus one scale after polarity-signed aggregation. A 5-state verdict machine classifies readings into strong bearish, BEAR, NEUTRAL, BULL, and strong bullish. Here is the empirical pattern from 38 years of history after four engine patches on 2026-10-25 (Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) + Corn Condition Week-over-Week Delta (State-Weighted Belt) + Corn Silking Pace (State-Weighted Belt) state-weighted belt methodology; US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) publication-lag-aware 14-month look-ahead removal). The patches produced a material correction to the this playbook verdict ladder. The ladder is now **ASYMMETRIC and no longer monotonic**: strong bearish delivers minus 11.12 percent (HAC t minus 5.25, significant at 1 percent, 77 state-days). BEAR delivers minus 4.73 percent (HAC t minus 4.45, significant at 1 percent , SHARPENED after look-ahead removal). NEUTRAL delivers plus 0.16 percent (near-zero). BULL delivers plus 1.23 percent (HAC t plus 1.95, significant at 5 percent). **strong bullish delivers minus 5.11 percent (HAC t minus 2.42, significant at 5 percent but NEGATIVE)** , this is the material finding of the US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) publication-lag patch. The pre-patch strong bullish state (+5.24% HAC t +4.77) was substantially a LOOK-AHEAD ARTIFACT driven by US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) reading future ending-stocks projections before they could be publicly reconciled. In true point-in-time terms strong bullish verdicts have preceded bearish corn forward returns. The playbook is still useful on the bearish side (strong bearish + BEAR both HAC-t sig at 1 percent, materially sharpened by the look-ahead removal) and the mildly-bullish BULL state remains directionally-correct. The strong bullish state should be treated as a REVERSE signal (fade long exposure when composite exceeds plus 0.5). Today the composite reads plus 0.178 in NEUTRAL verdict territory for 10 consecutive trading days at the 71.4 percentile of 38 years of history , the lower half of the NEUTRAL band versus the upper half before the Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) patch. Read on for the seven inputs with their current readings, the four signature historical verdict cases, and the current reading in context.
LIVE CHART
The seven-input corn cycle DNA composite across 38 years of US corn market history.
The composite has been in NEUTRAL for 10 consecutive trading days with the reading at plus 0.178 at the 71.4 percentile (lower half of NEUTRAL band after Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) belt-weighted patch promoted 2026-10-25). Signature episodes: strong bullish verdicts during the 2012 drought, the 1988 drought summer, the 1996 scarcity window, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine Black Sea disruption, the 2010-2011 Russian wheat export ban and Arab Spring, and the 2008 pre-crisis food shock. strong bearish verdicts during the 2014-2015 record US stocks buildup, the 2000-2005 pre-ethanol oversupply era, and the March-April 2020 pandemic demand-destruction window.
COMPOSITE
+0.178 / tanh
STATE
Neutral
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+3.13% (baseline +2.31%)
SAMPLE N
9,044 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
VERDICT AND PERCENTILE
NEUTRAL verdict, 10 consecutive days. Composite at plus 0.178 is at the 71.4 percentile , lower half of NEUTRAL band.
THE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTIONS
Two negative contributions dominate: Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) belt-behind-pace-via-polarity-flip minus 0.153 (largest negative) and US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) tight-stocks-via-polarity-flip minus 0.139. Three positive contributions partially offset: Corn Dec-Nearby Carry deep-carry-via-polarity-flip plus 0.098, FAO Cereal Price YoY global-cereal-stress plus 0.096, Corn Silking Pace (State-Weighted Belt) silking-ahead plus 0.033.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
NEUTRAL has delivered near-baseline corn fwd 60d (minus 0.59 percent, edge minus 0.11 pp). A move below minus 0.2 would flip into BEAR verdict territory (minus 3.09 percent, HAC t minus 3.32 sig at 1 percent). A move above plus 0.2 would flip into BULL (plus 2.15 percent, HAC t plus 2.54 sig at 1 percent).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The playbook composite sits at +0.19 in the Neutral verdict band. The seven member signals are producing a mixed read: supply fundamentals are bearish (abundant 2025 crop, stocks loosening), but phenology signals are in post-season signature mode and sibling demand-flow signals (CNY Weak, China Share Accelerating, Rail Elevated) are starting to pre-stage export-pull dynamics. The playbook correctly reads this as near-baseline with upside bias. CBOT front-month corn (orange, right axis) sits near $4.48/bu.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Playbook composite +0.19 (Neutral) Seven-input weighted composite reading near-baseline. All five verdict-ladder states are HAC-t significant in corn fwd 60d; current Neutral is the dominant 60%+ of history state.
- Top contributing members (ranked by current contribution magnitude) Z3754 Corn Development Pace (-0.15, largest negative). Z4393 US Ending Stocks (+0.13). Z4381 Corn Silking Pace in post-season drift. Z2900 Corn Condition in post-season drift.
- IC vs CBOT corn fwd 60d: full-sample trend-following The playbook verdict ladder is MONOTONICALLY trend-following in corn fwd 60d. Both extreme tails (Strong Bear, Strong Bull) are HAC-t significant at the 1% level.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE SEVEN INPUTS ARE TELLING YOU
The US corn cycle through 2026 reads as a mixed picture across the seven inputs. The phenology inputs (Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Development Pace, Corn Condition Week-over-Week Delta (State-Weighted Belt) Condition WoW, Corn Silking Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Silking Pace) all show the 2026 crop running ahead-of-pace through planting, emergence, and silking, with mid-season condition dynamics in the normal range. The market-priced regime inputs (Corn Dec-Nearby Carry Dec-Nearby Carry) show a solid post-harvest storage-incentive regime consistent with adequate near-term supply. The supply-balance inputs (US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) US Ending Stocks) show meaningful YoY drawdown consistent with the lowest-stocks-in-years narrative driven by elevated ethanol-and-export demand. The global cross-commodity inputs (FAO Cereal Price YoY FAO Cereal YoY, Brazil Sugar Exports YoY Brazil Sugar Exports) show elevated global grain-stress and sustained cane-to-ethanol diversion. The net composite reads NEUTRAL in the upper-quartile.
THE EMPIRICAL VERDICT LADDER IS MONOTONIC AND CLEANLY SIGNIFICANT
Across 38 years of history, the this playbook Corn Cycle DNA composite verdict ladder is MONOTONICALLY INCREASING in corn fwd 60d with all four non-NEUTRAL verdicts clearing the 1 percent HAC-t significance threshold. strong bullish (126 state-days, 1.4 percent of sample) delivers plus 5.24 percent (HAC t plus 4.77, edge plus 5.72 pp). BULL (1,711 state-days, 19.1 percent) delivers plus 2.78 percent (HAC t plus 3.38). NEUTRAL (5,854 state-days, 65.2 percent) delivers minus 0.70 percent. BEAR (1,166 state-days, 13.0 percent) delivers minus 3.84 percent (HAC t minus 4.07). strong bearish (122 state-days, 1.4 percent) delivers minus 9.99 percent (HAC t minus 6.19). The four-of-four-tails-significant pattern is unusually clean among seven-input composite playbooks and reflects the structural persistence of corn-cycle dynamics across the 1988-2026 sample.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
The seven inputs are not fully orthogonal. FAO Cereal Price YoY is partially cointegrated with corn (corn is a FAO Cereal Price Index component). Corn Silking Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Silking Pace is methodologically similar to Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Development Pace (both operate on NASS Crop Progress data). The combined weight on NASS Crop Progress and crop condition data is 55 percent (0.20 + 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.10) across four inputs. Readers should recognize the seven-input architecture as capturing cross-corroborating reads of a smaller number of distinct underlying dimensions (phenology, condition, calendar spread, supply balance, global stress, cane-ethanol substitution) rather than seven independent evidence streams.
THE REGIME MAP
The five Corn Cycle DNA verdict ladder states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the seven-input corn cycle playbook composite (CBOT corn benchmark). Verdict ladder: Strong Bear (composite below minus 0.5), Defensive Tilt (between minus 0.5 and minus 0.2), Neutral (between minus 0.2 and plus 0.2), Cyclical Expansion (between plus 0.2 and plus 0.5), Strong Bull (above plus 0.5). Each tail is monotonically trend-following in corn forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Bear | — | 0.9% (77 d) | -6.48% | -7.94pp | Jul 2019, May 2019, May 2018 | |
| Defensive Tilt | – | 0.0% (0 d) | n/a | n/a | none | |
| Neutral TODAY | 0 | 60.9% (5515 d) | -1.18% | -2.64pp | Jul 2026, Jun 2026, Jul 2025 | |
| Cyclical Expansion | + | 0.0% (0 d) | n/a | n/a | none | |
| Strong Bull | ++ | 1.4% (127 d) | +5.52% | +4.06pp | Feb 2006, Dec 2005, Nov 2005 |
Thirty-eight years of the corn cycle DNA composite, four scenes
The seven-input blend across 38 years of US corn market history
THE TRACK RECORD
The last fourteen verdict transitions
14 transitions from 07/20/2026 to 10/23/2026.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Bull | 10/23/2024 | 11/18/2024 | 19d | +4.92% |
| Neutral | 11/19/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 7d | +3.83% |
| Strong Bull | 11/29/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 1d | -1.39% |
| Neutral | 12/02/2024 | 04/08/2025 | 88d | -3.29% |
| Strong Bear | 04/09/2025 | 04/15/2025 | 5d | +13.07% |
| Neutral | 04/16/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 2d | +18.35% |
| Strong Bear | 04/21/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 2d | +22.22% |
| Neutral | 04/23/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 2d | +17.43% |
| Strong Bear | 04/25/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 3d | +15.18% |
| Neutral | 04/30/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 1d | +14.86% |
| Strong Bear | 05/01/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 5d | +13.75% |
| Neutral | 05/08/2025 | 05/14/2025 | 5d | +11.13% |
| Strong Bear | 05/15/2025 | 07/10/2025 | 38d | +8.85% |
| Neutral | 07/11/2025 | 05/14/2026 | 213d | +7.70% |
| Strong Bear | 05/15/2026 | 06/02/2026 | 12d | +4.51% |
| Neutral | 06/03/2026 | 07/22/2026 | 34d | +2.00% |
| Strong Bear | 07/23/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 3d | +3.40% |
| Neutral | 07/28/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 63d | +4.35% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Why it matters
FOUR-OF-FOUR-TAILS-SIGNIFICANT AT 1 PERCENT IS UNUSUALLY CLEAN
Across 38 years of corn history, the this playbook Corn Cycle DNA composite verdict ladder shows all four non-NEUTRAL verdicts clearing the 1 percent HAC-t significance threshold. strong bullish (HAC t plus 4.77), BULL (HAC t plus 3.38), BEAR (HAC t minus 4.07), strong bearish (HAC t minus 6.19). This four-of-four pattern is unusually clean among seven-input composite playbooks and reflects the structural persistence of corn-cycle dynamics across the 1988-2026 sample.
THE INPUT STACK CAPTURES SIX DISTINCT DIMENSIONS WITH SOME CORRELATION
this playbook Corn Cycle DNA ingests seven inputs capturing six distinct underlying dimensions: phenology (Corn Development Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Development Pace at 20 percent + Corn Silking Pace (State-Weighted Belt) Silking Pace at 10 percent for a combined 30 percent weight on US corn phenology from NASS Crop Progress), condition (Corn Condition Week-over-Week Delta (State-Weighted Belt) Condition WoW Delta at 15 percent, also NASS Crop Progress), calendar spread (Corn Dec-Nearby Carry Dec-Nearby Carry at 15 percent, CBOT market-priced), supply balance (US Corn Ending Stocks YoY INV (Publication-Lag Aware) US Ending Stocks YoY at 15 percent, USDA WASDE), global grain stress (FAO Cereal Price YoY at 10 percent, FAO), and Brazilian cane-ethanol substitution (Brazil Sugar Exports YoY at 15 percent, USDA FAS PSD). The combined weight on US-domestic phenology-and-condition data is 45 percent across three inputs, which readers should recognize as cross-corroborating US agronomic reads rather than three fully-orthogonal predictors.
THE this playbook ROLE IN THE CORN PORTFOLIO
this playbook Corn Cycle DNA is one of thirteen signals in the LOCKED corn portfolio (v1_1 layer architecture: Layer 1 base sleeve of 13 equal-weight signals at 7.7 percent each, plus Layer 2 volatility governance, plus Layer 3 cross-market regime overlay). The portfolio sleeve "y-composite-corn-aggregators-2" ingests this playbook together with ML Auto Corn Composite V9 (a 15-member ML-derived composite). The two Y aggregators collectively represent 18 percent of the LOCKED corn portfolio target weight, providing a layer of signal aggregation above the raw-Z base sleeve.
GO DEEPER
What the seven-input Corn Cycle DNA blend has meant for US corn forward returns across 38 years of growing-season and supply-balance history
Full 18-minute research brief in PDF: the seven-input weighted-blend construction with four polarity-minus-one wirings and three polarity-plus-one wirings, the 2012 drought strong bullish cycle-archetype, the 2014-2015 strong bearish record-stocks case, the 2022 Black Sea disruption strong bullish rerun, the four-of-four-tails-significant empirical pattern, and the five documented limitations.
Signal inputs and companion playbooks
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 02, 2026 12:44 PM ET