CT SPECIALIST · Softs / Groundwater Supply
Z32312 – [CT] GRACE India Vidarbha Aquifer Signal
NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Vidarbha captures groundwater stress on the rain-fed cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
-0.535
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Post-season composite ffills through harvest; next active cycle starts with pre-monsoon…
Signal state
TWS Low (Aquifer Stress)
14 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
NASA GRACE monthly release
Sample
24-year window
Monthly cadence; 2002 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUN-OCT INDIA KHARIF COTTON SEASON
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
India is the second-largest cotton producer globally. The Vidarbha region of eastern Maharashtra accounts for the largest share of Indian cotton acreage and is overwhelmingly rain-fed with limited irrigation buffer. NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage is the cleanest observational read on sub-surface water stress over the Vidarbha aquifer. Empirically GRACE downturns precede Indian cotton yield collapse by 6 to 12 months and transmit to Cotton futures at 60-day horizons. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is minus 0.170 at p-value 1.8e-40 across 6,089 observations, among the strongest signals in the Cotton library. Phase plus 1 firings deliver minus 1.49 pp below baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver plus 2.74 pp above baseline. 4.23 pp directional spread.
LIVE CHART
CT GRACE India Vidarbha Aquifer Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Vidarbha cotton belt z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means TWS is high (above-trend moisture, bearish CT via supply support); negative composite means TWS low (aquifer stress, bullish CT via yield shock). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.535 / tanh
STATE
TWS Low (Aquifer Stress)
PHASE
-0.62
PHASE +1 EDGE
-1.49 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+2.74 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
TWS Low (Aquifer Stress) firing at composite -0.535, 14 trading days running in STRESS phase. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers plus 0.17 percent fwd60d / minus 1.49 pp below plus 1.66 percent baseline. Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers plus 4.40 percent / plus 2.74 pp above baseline. Daily Spearman IC minus 0.170 at p-value 1.8e-40 strongly significant.
THE AQUIFER-SUPPLY MECHANISM
Vidarbha is the largest Indian cotton region by acreage and overwhelmingly rain-fed with limited irrigation buffer. NASA GRACE measures terrestrial water storage (groundwater plus soil moisture plus surface water) via gravity anomaly. TWS downturns precede yield collapse by 6-12 months as pre-monsoon aquifer depletion compresses yields even if monsoon rainfall is normal.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional groundwater overlay for Cotton. TWS Low firings flag bullish supply-shock setups with Cotton strength following at 60-day horizon via Indian yield compression. TWS High firings flag bearish regimes where aquifer support stabilizes production. Pair with USDM US drought, China Xinjiang precip, USDA WASDE, and CFTC positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.535 in the TWS Low (Aquifer Stress) band. NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage over India Vidarbha has run below the rolling z-score mean through 2026 and Cotton forward 60-day returns historically run above baseline in this regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.535 State TWS Low (Aquifer Stress), 14 days running in STRESS phase.
- GRACE India Vidarbha TWS below rolling mean Raw z-score -0.62; NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Vidarbha cotton belt has run below the rolling mean through 2026 consistent with aquifer stress regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap borderline Daily Spearman IC minus 0.170 at p-value 1.8e-40 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC minus 0.167 at p-value 0.09 borderline significant on 102 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE AQUIFER CALL
Composite -0.535, TWS Low (Aquifer Stress). NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage over the India Vidarbha cotton belt is running below the rolling z-score mean through 2026. Signal firing in TWS Low bucket for 14 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs plus 2.74 pp above baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC minus 0.170 at p-value 1.8e-40 strongly significant on 24-year sample. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers minus 1.49 pp below baseline; Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers plus 2.74 pp. 4.23 pp directional spread with non-monotone Phase 0 edge minus 3.41 pp (middle worst).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling minus 0.167 at p-value 0.09 borderline significant on 102 samples. Polarity is contrarian relative to the stated engine convention; the empirical pattern says low TWS precedes CT strength via Indian yield collapse. NASA GRACE publishes with 2-3 month data-processing lag.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,089 post-warmup trading days (2002 onward). Baseline Cotton fwd60d mean plus 1.66 percent. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers -1.49 pp edge; Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers +2.74 pp. 4.23 pp directional spread with daily IC minus 0.170 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWS High | +1 | 43.3% (2635 d) | +0.17% | -1.49pp | 2019-20, 2010-11, 2005 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 14.8% (900 d) | -1.75% | -3.41pp | various | |
| TWS Low (Aquifer Stress) TODAY | -1 | 41.9% (2554 d) | +4.40% | +2.74pp | 2026 (current), 2022-23, 2015-16 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 24-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Vidarbha cotton belt on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals high TWS (above-trend moisture, bearish CT via supply support); negative composite equals low TWS (aquifer stress, bullish CT via yield shock). Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why GRACE India Vidarbha matters
India is the second-largest cotton producer globally. The Vidarbha region of eastern Maharashtra accounts for the largest share of Indian cotton acreage and is overwhelmingly rain-fed with limited irrigation buffer. NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage is the cleanest observational read on sub-surface water stress over the Vidarbha aquifer; GRACE downturns precede yield collapse by 6-12 months as pre-monsoon aquifer depletion compresses yields even if monsoon rainfall is normal.
How to use this signal today
Directional groundwater overlay for Cotton positioning. TWS Low firings flag bullish supply- shock setups where Indian yield compression supports Cotton over 60-day horizons; TWS High firings flag bearish regimes where aquifer support stabilizes production. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI (non-India supply), China Xinjiang precip (non-India supply), USDA WASDE stocks-to-use (systemic balance), and CFTC positioning for stacked global-supply conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (102 independent 60-day samples) minus 0.167 at p-value 0.09 borderline significant. Phase 0 (On Trend) sample share is 15 percent with edge minus 3.41 pp; the middle bucket underperforms both extremes making the pattern non-monotone around Phase 0 while clean between the extremes. Polarity is contrarian relative to the stated engine convention.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:30 AM ET