CT SPECIALIST · Softs / Positioning
Z32350 – [CT] CFTC Net-Spec Positioning Z-Score Signal
CFTC non-commercial net speculator positioning in Cotton futures captures speculator conviction and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the sustained-flow channel.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.880
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
CFTC COT weekly Friday release drives signal refresh.
Signal state
Net Long Crowded
162 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CFTC COT weekly release
Sample
36-year window
Weekly cadence; 1990 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report publishes weekly speculator positioning in ICE US Cotton No. 2 futures. Non-commercial (speculator) net position (long minus short) reflects aggregate directional conviction from discretionary traders. When speculators are net long with high conviction, continued inflow regimes historically support Cotton prices over 60-day horizons. When speculators are net short with high conviction, sustained outflow pressures prices. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is plus 0.078 at p-value 1.1e-13 across 8,953 observations, strongly significant on the 36-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings deliver plus 0.73 pp above baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver minus 0.42 pp. 1.15 pp directional spread.
LIVE CHART
CT CFTC Net-Spec Positioning Z-Score Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the CFTC Commitments of Traders non-commercial net position in ICE US Cotton futures z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means speculators are net long with high conviction (bullish CT via sustained-flow channel); negative composite means net short (bearish CT). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
+0.880 / tanh
STATE
Net Long Crowded
PHASE
+1.38
PHASE +1 EDGE
+0.73 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-0.42 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Net Long Crowded firing at composite +0.880, 162 trading days running in HEALTHY phase. Phase +1 (Net Long Crowded) delivers plus 1.70 percent fwd60d / plus 0.73 pp above plus 0.97 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Net Short Crowded) delivers plus 0.55 percent / minus 0.42 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.078 at p-value 1.1e-13 strongly significant.
THE POSITIONING MECHANISM
CFTC Commitments of Traders tracks speculator positioning in ICE US Cotton futures. Non- commercial speculators are discretionary traders whose aggregate positioning reflects short-term directional conviction. Crowded-long regimes historically see continued speculator inflow support prices; crowded-short regimes see continued outflow pressure prices.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional positioning overlay for Cotton. Net Long Crowded firings flag bullish regimes with Cotton strength following at 60-day horizon. Net Short Crowded firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI, India Vidarbha GRACE, USDA WASDE, and demand signals for stacked conviction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.880 in the Net Long Crowded band. CFTC non-commercial net positioning in Cotton has run deeply above the rolling z-score mean through 2026 and Cotton forward 60-day returns historically run above baseline in this regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.880 State Net Long Crowded, 162 days running in HEALTHY phase.
- CFTC net-spec deeply positive Raw z-score +1.38; CFTC non-commercial net positioning has run multiple standard deviations above the rolling mean through 2026.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap not independent Daily Spearman IC plus 0.078 at p-value 1.1e-13 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.098 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant on 150 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE POSITIONING CALL
Composite +0.880, Net Long Crowded. CFTC non-commercial net positioning in Cotton has run deeply above the rolling z-score mean through 2026 with raw z at plus 1.38. Signal firing in Net Long Crowded bucket for 162 days (extended persistence); forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs plus 0.73 pp above baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.078 at p-value 1.1e-13 strongly significant on 36-year sample. Phase +1 (Net Long Crowded) delivers plus 0.73 pp above baseline; Phase -1 (Net Short Crowded) delivers minus 0.42 pp. 1.15 pp directional spread with non-monotone Phase 0 edge minus 0.82 pp.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.098 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant on 150 samples. Signal is positional and non-monotone around Phase 0 (middle bucket edge minus 0.82 pp); extremes carry the directional signal. Speculator positioning can persist in crowded extremes for months before unwinding; abrupt sentiment reversals are a tail risk.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,953 post-warmup trading days (1990 onward). Baseline Cotton fwd60d mean plus 0.97 percent. Phase +1 (Net Long Crowded) delivers +0.73 pp edge; Phase -1 (Net Short Crowded) delivers -0.42 pp. 1.15 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.078 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Long Crowded TODAY | +1 | 41.9% (3753 d) | +1.70% | +0.73pp | 2026 (current), 2021-22, 2016-17 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 15.7% (1409 d) | +0.15% | -0.82pp | various | |
| Net Short Crowded | -1 | 42.3% (3791 d) | +0.55% | -0.42pp | 2018-19, 2014-15, 2008 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CFTC Commitments of Traders non-commercial net position (long minus short) in ICE US Cotton No. 2 futures on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals speculators net long with high conviction (bullish CT via sustained-flow channel); negative composite equals net short (bearish CT). Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why CFTC Cotton positioning matters
CFTC Commitments of Traders tracks weekly speculator positioning in ICE US Cotton futures. Non-commercial speculators are discretionary traders whose aggregate positioning reflects short- term directional conviction on Cotton. Crowded speculator long positioning historically coincides with continued inflow regimes that support Cotton prices over 60-day horizons; crowded short positioning coincides with sustained outflow pressure. The signal is a direct speculator-sentiment read on the Cotton market.
How to use this signal today
Directional positioning overlay for Cotton. Net Long Crowded firings flag bullish regimes where speculator conviction supports Cotton strength at 60-day horizon; Net Short Crowded firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI (US supply), India Vidarbha GRACE aquifer (India supply), USDA WASDE stocks-to-use (systemic balance), and apparel-demand signals for stacked positioning-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant on 36-year sample but non-overlap test plus 0.098 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant on 150 samples. Signal is positional and non-monotone around Phase 0 (middle bucket edge minus 0.82 pp). Speculator positioning can persist in crowded extremes for months before unwinding; abrupt sentiment reversals are a notable tail risk at extreme readings.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 06:00 AM ET