GC · Metals / Physical Demand
Z99196 – GC Gold India-China Gold Imports
India consumes a quarter of global gold; the monthly import trajectory year-on-year leads gold price direction with elevated physical demand delivering above-baseline forward 60-day returns.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR WED
Current reading
+0.000
India gold-import YoY z-score, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Normal
276 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals elevated imports; negative equals weak
Sample
9 years
India HS7108 since June 2017
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW WEDDING AND FESTIVAL SEASON OCTOBER THROUGH MARCH
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
India is the largest physical gold consumer in the world, absorbing roughly a quarter of global gold through wedding-season buying, festival demand (Diwali, Dhanteras, Akshaya Tritiya), and household investment allocation. Monthly import data captures the physical-demand trajectory with a short reporting lag. This signal reads India HS7108 gold-import customs data, takes 12-month year-on-year change, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Phase +1 elevated-imports state has delivered plus 4.10 percent mean forward 60-day gold return versus baseline +2.14 percent, a 196 basis-point edge. On March 4 2025 the composite reached its series maximum plus 0.9616 during the pre-wedding-season buying surge. On September 4 2019 the composite reached minus 0.7616 during the India gold-import-duty-hike window. Today the composite reads +0.000, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
The 504-day z-score of a multi-input composite of US credit-quality indicators including BAA-AAA corporate spreads, 9016 trading days of history for GC.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks elevated-imports regime. The pale green band at the bottom marks weak-imports regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.804 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+5.24% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND READING
Normal, 276 days running. Composite at +0.000 is in the range.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The underlying input is at its current level relative to the 504-day baseline. The composite reflects this with the sign-convention stated in section 2.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal's historical edge is concentrated at the tanh-saturation extremes (composite below minus 0.5 or above plus 0.5). The cross-sample Pearson IC of +0.12 on SPY forward-sixty-day is a reference-asset read; the appropriate direct read is GC forward returns, which are not computed as a baseline in this page.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.000 placing the dot inside the Normal band. India customs data refreshes monthly with 3-4 week lag; watch for pre-wedding-season windows (October to March) as elevated-imports periods.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- India HS7108 monthly imports Primary input; India customs gold-import USD-value.
- 12-month YoY change Smooths single-month noise.
- Rolling z-score Standardizes against trailing baseline.
THE REGIME MAP
The six regime states
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated imports | +1 | 14.3% (339 d) | +4.10% | +1.97pp | Sep 2025, Jul 2025, Mar 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 67.2% (1595 d) | +1.86% | -0.27pp | Oct 2025, Apr 2025, Feb 2022 | |
| Weak imports | -1 | 18.5% (438 d) | +1.57% | -0.56pp | Aug 2025, May 2025, Sep 2020 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
8 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (99 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 105d | +0.68% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 21d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 44d | +5.43% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Defensive LIVE | 01/02/2026 | current | 212d | -4.81% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
India consumes roughly 25 percent of global physical gold demand through wedding-season buying, festival demand, and investment allocation. The engine reads monthly India gold-import customs data (HS7108 trade code), takes 12-month year-on-year change, z-scores on a rolling window, and bounds through tanh. Elevated composite captures physical-demand regimes which have historically supported gold prices.
Why it matters
India imports roughly 700-900 tonnes of gold per year, a quarter of global physical demand. Monthly import data captures the demand trajectory with a short reporting lag; spot price responds within weeks of elevated import periods.
Phase +1 elevated imports has delivered 196 basis-point edge over Phase -1 weak imports. Pair with CB-buying signals for complete physical-demand view.
India government periodically adjusts gold import duties (2013 hike, 2019 hike, 2024 cut). These policy actions can create artificial swings in reported imports unrelated to underlying physical demand. Pair with price-premium data for full picture.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:36 AM ET