GC · Metals / CB Participation Breadth
Z99145 – GC Gold CB Purchase Breadth
Central-bank gold accumulation is more constructive when broadly distributed across reporters; the breadth composite has delivered a 36 basis-point edge on forward 60-day gold returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.710
CB-buying breadth composite z-score, tanh-bounded
Signal state
Extreme POS
253 trading days in current state
Phase
HEALTHY
Positive equals broad buying; negative equals narrow
Sample
26 years
WGC country-level data since 2000
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Central-bank gold buying can be either concentrated or broadly distributed. A single large buyer (Russia in 2014-2016, China PBOC in 2022-2023) produces narrow concentrated activity. A broad set of reporters all accumulating (the current 2024-2026 BRICS de-dollarization regime) produces breadth activity. Breadth is structurally more durable because it reflects a shared reserve-management thesis across multiple institutional actors. This signal combines three sub-inputs across monthly WGC data: net-buyer count, top-5 Herfindahl concentration, and emerging-market CB YoY z-score. Phase +1 broad-buying has delivered plus 1.58 percent mean forward 60-day gold return versus baseline plus 1.22 percent. Today the composite reads +0.710, in Extreme POS territory.
LIVE CHART
The 504-day z-score of a multi-input composite of US credit-quality indicators including BAA-AAA corporate spreads, 9016 trading days of history for GC.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks broad-buying regime. The pale green band at the bottom marks narrow-buying regime. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman information coefficient. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
+0.804 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+5.24% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND READING
Extreme POS, 253 days running. Composite at +0.710 is in the range.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The underlying input is at its current level relative to the 504-day baseline. The composite reflects this with the sign-convention stated in section 2.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal's historical edge is concentrated at the tanh-saturation extremes (composite below minus 0.5 or above plus 0.5). The cross-sample Pearson IC of +0.08 on SPY forward-sixty-day is a reference-asset read; the appropriate direct read is GC forward returns, which are not computed as a baseline in this page.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.710 placing the dot inside the Extreme POS band. WGC country-level data refreshes monthly; watch for new buyer reporters entering the panel as leading indicator of broader-regime extension.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Monthly net-buyer count Number of reporting central banks with net gold purchases this month.
- Top-5 Herfindahl index Concentration of buying among top-5 buyers; lower is broader.
- EM CB YoY z-score Emerging-market CB accumulation rate.
THE REGIME MAP
The six regime states
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad buying TODAY | +1 | 47.0% (3112 d) | +1.58% | +0.36pp | Nov 2025, Sep 2025, May 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 22.5% (1490 d) | +0.48% | -0.74pp | Oct 2025, Jun 2025, Apr 2025 | |
| Narrow buying | -1 | 30.4% (2013 d) | +1.21% | -0.00pp | Aug 2025, Feb 2025, Dec 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
8 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (99 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 105d | +0.68% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 21d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 44d | +5.43% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Defensive LIVE | 01/02/2026 | current | 212d | -4.81% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Central-bank gold-buying breadth captures how broadly the official sector is accumulating gold. The engine combines three sub-inputs across monthly WGC country-level data: net-buyer count, top-5 buyer Herfindahl concentration index (lower is broader), and emerging-market CB year-on-year z-score. The composite is z-scored and tanh-bounded. Elevated breadth means many central banks buying and broad distribution of activity across reporters.
Why it matters
Narrow CB buying by a single reserve-manager (even a large one) reflects idiosyncratic decision-making. Broad buying across many central banks reflects shared thesis ; reserve diversification, de-dollarization, or inflation-hedge consensus. Broad regimes are structurally more durable.
Phase +1 broad-buying has delivered 36 basis-point edge versus baseline. Pair with CB purchase-magnitude signals (the Gold WGC Central-Bank Purchases signal, the WGC CB Cross-Country Z signal) for a complete CB-activity view.
WGC monthly data carries 4-to-6-week lag. China PBOC off-ledger activity is not captured. The breadth signal can miss unreported accumulation.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 12:33 AM ET