SOYBEAN SPECIALIST · Oilseed / Supply Balance
Z4400 – [S] US Soybean Ending Stocks YoY
Tight US soybean ending stocks have historically preceded bullish soy forward returns; the signal is a confirmation lens on the WASDE calendar, not a position-entry trigger.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current composite
+0.325
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale; in the stocks-contraction band.
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Post-September Grain Stocks report reveals vintage prior-year carryout.
Signal state
Moderate POS
Current state across the three-state Contraction / Normal / Surplus regime machine.
Phase duration
615 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JANUARY 2027 WASDE (FIRST FULL 2026/27 US BALANCE)
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US soybean ending stocks are the single most-watched line on the USDA WASDE balance sheet, the carry-over tonnage into the next marketing year that every ags fund, every Chicago prop desk, and every Midwest co-op basis trader reads within minutes of each monthly release. When ending stocks contract year-over-year, the US supply pool is tightening and historical soybean forward returns run above baseline.
This signal reads the USDA FAS PSD US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year percent change, z-scored on a 504-day (two-year) rolling baseline, tanh-bounded, and sign-flipped (inverted) so that stocks contraction produces a positive composite. The thirty-six-year empirical pattern is clean monotonic: non-overlap IC plus 0.204 at p=0.014 is the strongest soybean specialist signal in the Market Lab estate.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of USDA PSD US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year z-score against CBOT soybean forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year z-score on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale, positive means stocks contracting (bullish soy), negative means stocks accumulating (bearish soy). The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT soybean front-month in cents per bushel. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and soybean 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.3 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.6 extreme thresholds. Green band fills mark stocks-contraction extremes; red band fills mark stocks-surplus extremes.
COMPOSITE
+0.325 / tanh
STATE
Stocks contraction
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+2.64% (edge +1.22pp)
SAMPLE N
9,046 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite plus 0.33 (Moderate POS, 615 sessions running since November 6, 2024). One of the longest sustained stocks-contraction regimes in the modern sample. Current state has delivered plus 2.64 percent soy fwd 60-day on average versus the baseline, a plus 1.22pp edge.
THE WASDE MECHANISM
US soybean ending stocks are the primary line on the WASDE balance sheet that moves soybean prices. When stocks contract year-over-year, the US balance has less cushion against a crop shortfall or demand surge, and forward returns historically firm. The signal is a lens on the WASDE calendar, pre-report positioning, post-report fade-or-follow, not an entry trigger.
HOW TO POSITION
Non-overlap IC plus 0.204 at n=143 at p-value 0.014, the strongest soybean specialist signal in the estate. Daily IC plus 0.016 is noise. State edges are clean monotonic (-1.80pp / +0.37pp / +1.22pp) and the mechanism is grounded in the balance-sheet-identity economics of US carryover stocks.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting in the Moderate POS band just above plus 0.3, well below the plus 0.6 Extreme marker. The current run of 615 sessions is one of the longest sustained contraction regimes in the modern sample. The bronze soybean line in the middle panel traces a sideways-to-lower pattern near 1200 cents through most of 2025-2026, consistent with the "already in the price" reading of a persistent-but-not-escalating stocks regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.325 US soybean ending stocks year-over-year z-score, inverted. In the Moderate POS (contraction) band on the plus-or-minus one tanh scale.
- Raw rolling z-score +0.34 Two-year (504-day) trailing baseline on the US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year change, stocks modestly below the trailing two-year norm.
- Phase run 615 sessions Current Moderate POS regime entered November 6, 2024. One of the longest sustained stocks-contraction regimes in the thirty-six-year sample.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE US SOY STOCKS Z IS TELLING YOU
The composite has been sitting in the Moderate POS band since November 6, 2024 and is now reading +0.325. The raw z is +0.34, modestly above the two-year baseline for US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year change. The phase has been running 615 sessions, one of the longest sustained stocks-contraction regimes in the sample. Yet CBOT soybeans trades near 1214 cents, close to where it entered the state.
WHY THE PHASE PERSISTS WITHOUT A MOVE
A fund PM’s reading of this configuration, the signal is confirming a regime that was already in the price by the time the YoY z-score flipped POS. The alpha is not in the state label; the alpha is in the composite movement versus consensus expectation. A flat composite at +0.325 with a long persistent regime reads as "already in the price" and the forward edge compresses. The regime would re-energize if the composite RISES through the extreme-POS band (plus 0.6+) on a surprise WASDE tightening.
WHAT TO CROSS-REFERENCE
The signal is a confirmation lens; it needs a disconfirming or continuation catalyst to express a trade. Watch the January and February WASDE releases for whether the composite extends higher (surprise continuation, highest-EV long setup) or flips back toward state zero (consensus reset, fade the crowded long). Pair with the Argentine stocks-to-use sibling for Southern-Hemisphere supply cross-check, and with the CFTC managed-money net length positioning to see how much of the regime is already in the fast-money book.
THE REGIME MAP
The three US soybean ending-stocks YoY regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the US soy ending-stocks YoY z-score composite (CBOT soybean benchmark, 1990-11-29 through present). CBOT soybean forward 60-day baseline is plus 1.42 percent across 9,046 live-signal days. Clean monotonic three-regime edge with non-overlap IC plus 0.204 at p=0.014, the strongest Phase 0 signature among the soybean specialist signals in the estate.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocks surplus (bearish soy) | -1 | 36.3% (3258 d) | -0.39% | -1.80pp | Apr 2022, Dec 2013, Sep 2003 | |
| Normal YoY | 0 | 14.5% (1304 d) | +1.79% | +0.37pp | 2024, 2015, 2001 | |
| Stocks contraction (bullish) TODAY | +1 | 49.2% (4421 d) | +2.64% | +1.22pp | Nov 2024, Jan 2019, Jun 2011 |
The historical pattern across 36 years of US soybean ending-stocks YoY
The signal across 36 years of US soybean ending-stocks year-over-year history
What this measures
US soybean carry-over tightness drives the next marketing year’s supply flexibility; when stocks contract year-over-year the US balance sheet loses its cushion against a production shortfall or export surge, and soybean prices historically firm. The USDA FAS PSD US soybean ending-stocks series is z-scored on a two-year rolling baseline, tanh-bounded, and sign-flipped so that a contraction reads as positive composite (bullish). Plus-or-minus 0.3 state-machine threshold.
Why it matters
Why US soy ending stocks read soy forward returns
US soybean ending stocks are the direct balance-sheet measure of supply tightness for the single largest soybean producer (approximately 33 percent of global production and 40 percent of global exports in a typical marketing year). The WASDE monthly projection of US ending stocks is the single most-watched line in agricultural fundamentals, every fund manages soy risk against it. The 36-year empirical pattern shows stocks-contraction regimes delivering plus 2.64 percent soy forward 60-day (vs plus 1.42 percent baseline, edge plus 1.22pp) and stocks-surplus regimes delivering minus 0.39 percent (edge minus 1.80pp). The directional spread is 3.02 percentage points, monotone across the three regimes.
Why this is a confirmation signal, not a discovery signal
US soybean ending stocks are monthly WASDE output that the entire ags fund universe watches. By the time the two-year YoY z-score flips to Extreme POS, three previous WASDE prints have already moved futures, plus the Acreage report and the quarterly Grain Stocks report. The signal confirms a regime the curve has been digesting rather than discovering new information. A fund PM’s framing is that the alpha lives in the composite movement versus consensus expectation, not in the state label. A rising composite on a surprise WASDE tightening extends the move; a flat composite in a well-advertised regime is wallpaper. The 2006-2008 case is leading-indicator alpha; the 2011-2013 case is confirming alpha behind the daily weather signals; the 2019-2021 case sits in between.
How to use this signal today
The composite +0.325 reading is in the Moderate POS band and the phase has been running 615 sessions, one of the longest sustained stocks-contraction regimes in the sample. The state-conditional expected forward sixty-day return is plus 2.64 percent, but the composite is sitting close to the plus 0.3 state boundary rather than deep in the Extreme POS territory, which a fund PM reads as a "soft long" regime, fragile to a WASDE revision. The highest-EV setup from here is either a surprise continuation print (composite rises toward plus 0.6 on a tighter WASDE revision) that extends the regime, or a disconfirming print that flips the composite back toward zero and triggers a fade of a crowded long. Pair with the Argentine corn stocks-to-use signal for Southern-Hemisphere cross-check and watch the January-February 2027 WASDE catalyst window.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The 14-minute research brief walks the full thirty-six-year signature with expert commentary from Dana Whitfield, a discretionary-macro ag fund PM who sizes positions against the WASDE calendar quarterly: why the signal is a confirmation lens rather than an entry trigger, the WASDE-flip fragility of a two-year z-score window, when the signal leads (demand and acreage regimes) versus when it lags (weather-driven regimes), three case studies (2006-08 biofuel acreage shift, 2019-21 China buying as the cleanest alpha example, 2022-24 post-China-shock rebuild as the bearish-side counterpoint), and six blind spots including point-in-time data integrity, CFTC positioning cross-reference, South American swing variable, crush-versus-export mix, and Bonferroni multiple-testing correction.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 12:37 AM ET