CT SPECIALIST · Softs / Groundwater Supply
Z32311 – [CT] GRACE India Gujarat Aquifer Signal
NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage over India Gujarat captures groundwater stress on the irrigation-dependent cotton belt and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the yield-shock channel.
At a glance
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Current reading
-0.197
SEASONAL STATE
POST-SEASON SIGNATURE
Post-season composite ffills through harvest and winter; next active cycle starts with…
Signal state
On Trend
24 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
NASA GRACE monthly release
Sample
24-year window
Monthly cadence; 2002 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUN-OCT INDIA KHARIF COTTON SEASON
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Gujarat is the second-largest Indian cotton-producing state after Maharashtra Vidarbha and relies more heavily on tubewell-pumped groundwater irrigation than the rain-fed Vidarbha region. NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage is the cleanest observational read on sub-surface water stress over the Gujarat aquifer; GRACE downturns precede yield compression as pumping cost rises and marginal farmers reduce acreage. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is minus 0.065 at p-value 3.6e-7 across 6,089 observations, statistically significant on the 24-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings deliver minus 0.74 pp below baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver plus 2.07 pp above baseline. 2.81 pp directional spread with non-monotone Phase 0.
LIVE CHART
CT GRACE India Gujarat Aquifer Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Gujarat cotton belt z-scored on a rolling window and tanh- bounded. Positive composite means TWS is high (above-trend moisture, bearish CT via supply support); negative composite means TWS low (aquifer stress, bullish CT via yield shock). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.197 / tanh
STATE
On Trend
PHASE
-0.22
PHASE +1 EDGE
-0.74 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+2.07 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
On Trend firing at composite -0.197, 24 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers plus 0.92 percent fwd60d / minus 0.74 pp below plus 1.66 percent baseline. Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers plus 3.73 percent / plus 2.07 pp above baseline. Daily Spearman IC minus 0.065 at p-value 3.6e-7 statistically significant.
THE AQUIFER-SUPPLY MECHANISM
Gujarat is the second-largest Indian cotton region after Vidarbha and relies more heavily on tubewell-pumped groundwater irrigation. NASA GRACE measures terrestrial water storage via gravity. TWS downturns raise pumping cost and compress marginal acreage yields; the transmission to Cotton futures runs at 60-day horizons.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional groundwater overlay for Cotton via the India Gujarat supply channel. TWS Low firings flag bullish supply-shock setups with Cotton strength following at 60-day horizon via Indian yield compression. TWS High firings flag bearish regimes where aquifer support stabilizes production. Pair with Vidarbha GRACE, US Cotton Belt DSCI, Xinjiang precip, and CFTC positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.197 in the On Trend band. NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage over India Gujarat is running near the rolling z-score mean through 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.197 State On Trend, 24 days running in Neutral phase.
- GRACE India Gujarat TWS near rolling mean Raw z-score -0.22; NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Gujarat cotton belt has run near the rolling mean through 2026.
- Daily IC significant on long sample, non-overlap not independent Daily Spearman IC minus 0.065 at p-value 3.6e-7 statistically significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC minus 0.108 at p-value 0.28 not independently significant on 102 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE AQUIFER CALL
Composite -0.197, On Trend. NASA GRACE terrestrial water storage over India Gujarat cotton belt is running near the rolling z-score mean through 2026 (transitioning from Phase 0). Signal firing in Neutral bucket for 24 days; neither extreme directional edge applies at the moment.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC minus 0.065 at p-value 3.6e-7 statistically significant on 24-year sample. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers minus 0.74 pp below baseline; Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers plus 2.07 pp. 2.81 pp directional spread between the extremes with non-monotone Phase 0 (minus 3.32 pp).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling minus 0.108 at p-value 0.28 not independently significant on 102 samples. Phase 0 edge minus 3.32 pp is the strongest in absolute terms but 18 percent sample share; middle bucket is non-monotone relative to extremes. Polarity is contrarian relative to the stated engine convention.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,089 post-warmup trading days (2002 onward). Baseline Cotton fwd60d mean plus 1.66 percent. Phase +1 (TWS High) delivers -0.74 pp edge; Phase -1 (TWS Low) delivers +2.07 pp. 2.81 pp directional spread with daily IC minus 0.065 statistically significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWS High | +1 | 38.7% (2359 d) | +0.92% | -0.74pp | 2019-20, 2010-11, 2005 | |
| On Trend TODAY | 0 | 18.2% (1109 d) | -1.66% | -3.32pp | 2026 (current) | |
| TWS Low (Aquifer Stress) | -1 | 43.0% (2621 d) | +3.73% | +2.07pp | 2022-23, 2015-16, 2008-09 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 24-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage anomaly over the India Gujarat cotton belt on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals high TWS (above-trend moisture, bearish CT via supply support); negative composite equals low TWS (aquifer stress, bullish CT via yield shock). Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why GRACE India Gujarat matters
Gujarat is the second-largest Indian cotton region after Vidarbha and relies more heavily on tubewell-pumped groundwater irrigation than the rain-fed Vidarbha belt. NASA GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage is the cleanest observational read on sub-surface water stress over the Gujarat aquifer; GRACE downturns raise pumping cost and compress marginal acreage yields. The transmission to Cotton futures runs at 60-day horizons via Indian supply conditions.
How to use this signal today
Directional groundwater overlay for Cotton via the India Gujarat supply channel. TWS Low firings flag bullish supply-shock setups where Indian yield compression supports Cotton over 60- day horizons; TWS High firings flag bearish regimes where aquifer support stabilizes production. Pair with Vidarbha GRACE for dual-India coverage, US Cotton Belt DSCI, Xinjiang CHIRPS, and CFTC positioning for stacked global-supply conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC statistically significant on 24-year sample but non-overlap test minus 0.108 at p- value 0.28 not independently significant on 102 samples. Phase 0 (On Trend) sample share is 18 percent with edge minus 3.32 pp (strongest in absolute terms); the middle bucket is non-monotone relative to extremes. Polarity is contrarian relative to the stated engine convention.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 07:30 AM ET