· Analytic
Z2885 Corn Price Breakeven Tiers
A discrete tier mapping of CBOT corn front-month price to acreage-decision breakeven levels. Below $3.17/bushel = acreage will contract next season (bullish forward). Above $8/bushel = acreage will expand (bearish forward via mean-reversion). A rule-based mean-reversion signal.
Current reading
+0.300
Moderate Pos
DAILY · SIGNAL
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
Current tier
0.0000
Discrete tier mapping; corn front-month between $4.60 and $6.00/bushel
Signal state
Moderate POS
81 consecutive days in episode
All-time percentile
21.8th
Lower-quintile of 36 years
EXTREME_NEG corn fwd 60d
-12.70%
34 days (0.4%), HAC t -5.96 sig at 1% , small-N extreme-mean-reversion
NORMAL corn fwd 60d
+0.21%
869 days (9.7%), HAC t +0.13
Current contribution to ML Auto Corn Composite V9
+0.000
3.0 percent weight × +1 polarity × 0 value
OBJECTIVE
Corn acreage decisions are made by US farmers in January-March for the following marketing year. The decision is driven by the AT-DECISION-TIME price of corn relative to competing crops (soybeans, wheat) and relative to breakeven costs (seed, fertilizer, land rent, machinery). When corn prices fall below approximately $3.17/bushel for sustained periods, acreage contracts next year as farmers switch to competing crops; when prices rise above approximately $6-$8/bushel, acreage expands aggressively. This signal maps the current CBOT front-month corn price (in cents/bushel) to a discrete tier: plus 1.0 if price below $3.17, plus 0.6 if below $4.20, plus 0.3 if below $4.60, zero between $4.60 and $6.00, minus 0.3 if above $6.00, minus 0.6 if above $8.00. The tier mapping is DISCRETE (step function, not smooth z-score) and NOT scaled by time-varying volatility , the price thresholds reflect the stable breakeven economics of US corn production. The empirical pattern across 36 years is one of CLEAN MEAN-REVERSION from the EXTREME_NEG tier (corn above $8). EXTREME_NEG state (val below minus 0.5, which corresponds to corn front-month above $8/bushel) delivers mean corn fwd 60d of minus 12.70 percent (HAC Newey-West t minus 5.96, significant at the 1 percent level, 34 state-days , a small-N but highly significant extreme-mean-reversion signature). The signal is approximately bimodal in its sample distribution: 71.4 percent of history has been in EXTREME_POS territory (corn below $3.17 for sustained windows , the pre-ethanol-mandate 1990s-2005 era primarily) and only 0.4 percent in EXTREME_NEG (corn above $8 , concentrated in 2012 drought peak + 2022 Russia-Ukraine peak). The signal reads 0.0000 as of October 23 2026, in NORMAL tier for 81 consecutive trading days at the 21.8 percentile , corn front-month is between $4.60 and $6.00/bushel, in the modal acreage-neutral band. The signal contributes 3.0 percent weight to ML Auto Corn Composite V9 ML Auto Corn Composite with polarity sign plus one; current contribution zero (tier is at the zero band).
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of CBOT corn front-month discrete price tier mapping.
COMPOSITE
0.0 / 100
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+2.50% (baseline +2.31%)
SAMPLE N
9,039 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND PERCENTILE
NORMAL tier at the 21.8 percentile. Corn in the acreage-neutral band.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
2026 corn front-month trading in a mid-$4 to low-$5 range, below the acreage-expansion signal threshold at $6 but above the acreage-contraction threshold at $3.17.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
A move below $4.60 would flip into MODERATE_POS (+0.3 tier). A move below $4.20 would flip into stronger MODERATE_POS (+0.6 tier). A move above $6.00 would flip into MODERATE_NEG (-0.3 tier).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.30 in the Within Breakeven Tiers band (approaching the Below-Breakeven threshold at +0.5). CBOT front-month corn trades at $4.48/bu, between the $3.17 contraction trigger and the $8 expansion trigger. The signal reads muted middle-band territory with mild lean toward the contraction setup.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.30 State Within Breakeven Tiers, approaching the Below-Breakeven threshold. CBOT corn in the middle of the breakeven ladder.
- CBOT corn front-month tier mapping Discrete tier mapping: Below $3.17/bu (contraction trigger) to Above $8/bu (expansion trigger). Rule-based mean-reversion construction.
- IC vs CBOT corn fwd 60d: Spearman +0.068, p=8.8e-11 (N=8,984) Significantly positive IC: below-breakeven readings predict positive corn fwd 60d via acreage-contraction response; above-breakeven predicts negative via acreage-expansion mean-reversion.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE ACREAGE-DECISION MECHANISM
US farmers make corn-versus-competing-crop acreage decisions in January-March based on expected relative returns. The breakeven threshold moves with input costs (seed, fertilizer, land rent), but has been approximately stable at $3.00-$3.50/bushel for standard corn-belt economics over the past two decades. Below $3.17, farmers systematically contract corn acreage next year, which TIGHTENS supply and PUSHES prices higher , the classic mean-reversion. Above $6-$8, farmers expand acreage, which LOOSENS supply and PRESSURES prices lower.
THE EXTREME_NEG MEAN-REVERSION SIGNATURE
Across 36 years of history, EXTREME_NEG state (corn above $8/bushel) occurred in only 34 state-days total (approximately 0.4 percent of sample). But the mean fwd 60d from that state is minus 12.70 percent (HAC t minus 5.96 sig at 1 percent) , one of the sharpest mean-reversion signatures in the ML Auto Corn Composite V9 input stack. The two historical EXTREME_NEG firings: 2012 drought peak (brief above-$8 window in late July 2012) and 2022 Russia-Ukraine peak (above $8 in March 2022). Both resolved into substantial corn mean-reversion over the subsequent 60 trading days.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
The signal is a RULE-BASED tier mapping, NOT a z-score. The price thresholds are FIXED at $3.17, $4.20, $4.60, $6.00, $8.00 and do not adjust for inflation or input-cost changes. Over 36 years, farming input costs have risen approximately 2-3x, which means the breakeven economics have shifted even if the dollar price thresholds have not. The sample distribution is heavily skewed to the EXTREME_POS tier (71.4 percent of sample has corn below $3.17 , this is historically accurate for the pre-ethanol-mandate 1990s-2005 era which had far lower nominal prices, but the signal’s categorization doesn’t adjust for the regime shift post-2007 when ethanol-mandate buildout structurally lifted US corn prices).
THE REGIME MAP
The three corn breakeven-tier regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the discrete tier mapping of CBOT corn front-month price to acreage-decision breakeven levels. Below approximately $3.17/bushel = acreage will contract next season (bullish forward via supply tightening); above approximately $8/bushel = acreage will expand (bearish forward via mean-reversion). CBOT corn benchmark.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above Breakeven (Expansion) | – | 0.0% (0 d) | n/a | n/a | none | |
| Within Breakeven Tiers TODAY | 0 | 28.8% (2603 d) | -1.08% | -1.37pp | Jul 2026, Jun 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Below Breakeven (Contraction) | + | 0.0% (0 d) | n/a | n/a | none |
The historical pattern
Methodology
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Neg | 10/23/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 1d | +4.92% |
| Normal | 10/24/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 1d | +5.27% |
| Extreme Neg | 10/25/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 8d | +5.00% |
| Normal | 11/06/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 6d | +2.23% |
| Extreme Neg | 11/14/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 1d | +2.76% |
| Normal | 11/15/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 8d | +4.09% |
| Extreme Neg | 11/27/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 1d | -2.30% |
| Normal | 11/29/2024 | 06/20/2025 | 139d | -1.39% |
| Extreme Neg | 06/23/2025 | 06/27/2025 | 5d | +9.84% |
| Normal | 06/30/2025 | 07/03/2025 | 4d | +7.35% |
| Extreme Neg | 07/07/2025 | 09/11/2025 | 48d | +7.33% |
| Normal | 09/12/2025 | 09/29/2025 | 12d | +3.99% |
| Extreme Neg | 09/30/2025 | 10/01/2025 | 2d | +3.63% |
| Normal | 10/02/2025 | 10/02/2025 | 1d | +2.78% |
| Extreme Neg | 10/03/2025 | 10/03/2025 | 1d | +2.66% |
| Normal | 10/06/2025 | 10/06/2025 | 1d | +1.54% |
| Extreme Neg | 10/07/2025 | 10/07/2025 | 1d | +2.10% |
| Normal | 10/08/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 1d | +2.17% |
| Extreme Neg | 10/09/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 5d | +3.08% |
| Normal | 10/16/2025 | 10/20/2025 | 3d | +5.01% |
| Extreme Neg | 10/21/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 1d | +3.03% |
| Normal | 10/22/2025 | 01/12/2026 | 56d | +1.46% |
| Extreme Neg | 01/13/2026 | 01/13/2026 | 1d | -2.06% |
| Normal | 01/14/2026 | 06/04/2026 | 98d | -0.62% |
| Extreme Neg | 06/05/2026 | 06/16/2026 | 8d | +3.29% |
| Normal | 06/17/2026 | 06/17/2026 | 1d | +2.69% |
| Extreme Neg | 06/18/2026 | 06/30/2026 | 8d | +1.43% |
| Normal | 07/01/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 81d | +3.43% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The engine loads CBOT front-month corn from CSI continuous file (prices in cents/bushel). Applies discrete tier mapping: tier=+1.0 if price<317, +0.6 if <420, +0.3 if <460, 0.0 if 460-600, -0.3 if 600-800, -0.6 if >800. No z-scoring or tanh; the tier IS the signal value. Five-state machine on the final tier value.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The full research brief adds methodology detail on the breakeven-tier construction, how the $3.17 contraction trigger and $8 expansion trigger were calibrated to USDA ARMS cost-of-production surveys, and why rule-based mean-reversion signals work on multi-year farmer-decision timescales. Includes historical case studies anchored to actual acreage-response cycles, the three-regime state-conditional table, and the methodology for pairing with Ending Stocks, US vs Global, Dec-Nearby Carry, and the Corn Cycle DNA playbook.
Taxonomy, polarity, state labels
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 02, 2026 01:37 PM ET