NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Weather Demand
Z102059 – [NG] US48 HDD Anomaly 52w Z
The HDD anomaly reads whether heating-degree-days are running ahead of or behind climatology. Cold anomaly means heating demand running above normal. Weather data begins 2022.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.932
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Moderate NEG
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
5 sessions
Fresh regime read on November 2, 2026.
As of Nov 06, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US heating-degree-days drive winter nat gas consumption. The anomaly (actual weekly HDD minus climatology-normal HDD) isolates the weather deviation from the seasonal pattern that is already priced. Positive anomaly means colder than normal, which drives above-trend heating demand and bullish gas. Negative anomaly means warmer than normal, which drives below-trend heating and bearish gas.
The sample is 90 percent NEUTRAL by design. The signal fires state Moderate POS or Moderate NEG only on weeks where the HDD anomaly moves outside its 52-week rolling band. Historical fires include the June 2022 pre-Freeport heat wave (24 sessions, nat gas plus 18.1 percent) and the August 2022 Europe-LNG-boom warm anomaly (30 sessions, nat gas minus 23.8 percent). Underlying weather-data history only extends to 2022-01, so the full state-conditional sample is thin.
LIVE CHART
Weekly US48 heating-degree-day anomaly against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the HDD anomaly composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means cold anomaly (bullish gas). Negative means warm anomaly (bearish gas). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX nat gas.
COMPOSITE
-0.932 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
edge -3.36pp
SAMPLE N
9,134 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.932 (Moderate NEG, 5 session). The sample is 90 percent NEUTRAL by design because the signal only fires on real HDD anomaly outside the 52-week rolling band.
THE HDD-ANOMALY MECHANIC
US winter nat gas consumption tracks heating-degree-days directly. The anomaly captures the weather deviation beyond the seasonal curve that is already priced. Colder than normal means heating demand ahead of expectations means bullish gas pull on storage.
HOW TO POSITION
Weather data history only extends to 2022. State-conditional sample is thin. Read alongside the ERCOT regional demand read, US power-burn composite, and other NG signals. Monitor the Thursday CPC release for HDD weekly updates during October-April heating season.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.932, inside the Moderate NEG band. The bronze NG line is trading at 2.86.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.932 Tanh-bounded 52-week z-score of HDD actual minus normal. In the Moderate NEG band.
- Raw rolling z-score -1.59 HDD anomaly sits roughly a quarter standard deviation above its 52-week trailing average.
- Phase run 5 session Fresh Moderate NEG entry on November 2, 2026.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE HDD ANOMALY IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.932 sits in the Moderate NEG band. Raw z is -1.59, meaning the HDD anomaly is roughly a quarter standard deviation above its 52-week rolling average. Translation. Last week ran a touch cold against seasonal norm.
THE NG DEMAND STACK
This signal is the WEATHER leg of the NG demand stack. The US power-burn composite reads physical gas-fired generation demand. The ERCOT demand composite reads Texas regional consumption YoY. Together they capture residential heating, industrial burn, and regional load.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above plus 0.5 (Extreme POS). That requires a Polar-Vortex-grade cold anomaly in the Northeast or Midwest. Second, the composite drops below minus 0.5 (Extreme NEG). Mild winter.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the HDD anomaly composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1990 through present, 9,134 live-signal days). NG forward 60-day baseline is minus 1.06 percent. The signal is 90 percent NEUTRAL by design; only weeks with real anomaly beyond the 52-week band generate state readings.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warm anomaly (bearish gas heating demand) TODAY | -1 | 40.6% (487 d) | -4.42% | -1.22pp | Nov 2026, Oct 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Normal (anomaly within seasonal band) | 0 | 23.9% (286 d) | -3.16% | +0.05pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Cold anomaly (bullish gas heating demand) | +1 | 35.5% (426 d) | -1.97% | +1.24pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern of US HDD anomaly events
The signal across US winter heating-demand anomaly history
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
62 state transitions from 11/18/2024 to 11/05/2026. Full history (150 total transitions since 06/18/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/18/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 9d | +3.66% |
| Expansion | 12/02/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10d | -1.57% |
| Neutral | 12/16/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 5d | -7.25% |
| Defensive | 12/23/2024 | 01/10/2025 | 13d | -5.16% |
| Expansion | 01/13/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 14d | -5.64% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/14/2025 | 10d | -7.23% |
| Expansion | 02/18/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 9d | -3.91% |
| Defensive | 03/03/2025 | 03/07/2025 | 5d | +0.68% |
| Neutral | 03/10/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 5d | +6.31% |
| Defensive | 03/17/2025 | 03/21/2025 | 5d | +6.03% |
| Neutral | 03/24/2025 | 03/28/2025 | 5d | +4.07% |
| Defensive | 03/31/2025 | 04/07/2025 | 6d | +9.38% |
| Neutral | 04/08/2025 | 04/11/2025 | 4d | +25.02% |
| Expansion | 04/14/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 4d | +15.67% |
| Neutral | 04/21/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 5d | +22.22% |
| Defensive | 04/28/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 5d | +15.17% |
| Neutral | 05/05/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 5d | +12.17% |
| Expansion | 05/12/2025 | 05/16/2025 | 5d | +8.45% |
| Defensive | 05/19/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 5d | +8.42% |
| Expansion | 05/27/2025 | 06/13/2025 | 14d | +7.51% |
| Neutral | 06/16/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 18d | +9.11% |
| Defensive | 07/14/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 2d | +7.09% |
| Neutral | 07/16/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 3d | +7.52% |
| Expansion | 07/21/2025 | 08/15/2025 | 20d | +5.32% |
| Defensive | 08/18/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10d | +6.17% |
| Expansion | 09/02/2025 | 09/19/2025 | 14d | +5.43% |
| Defensive | 09/22/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 25d | +1.80% |
| Expansion | 10/27/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10d | +0.58% |
| Defensive | 11/10/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 5d | +1.35% |
| Expansion | 11/17/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 5d | +2.42% |
| Defensive | 11/24/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 4d | +2.04% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/01/2025 | 1d | +0.84% |
| Defensive | 12/02/2025 | 12/05/2025 | 4d | +0.71% |
| Expansion | 12/08/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 10d | -1.65% |
| Neutral | 12/22/2025 | 12/26/2025 | 4d | -5.29% |
| Defensive | 12/29/2025 | 01/02/2026 | 4d | -6.22% |
| Neutral | 01/05/2026 | 01/09/2026 | 5d | -4.72% |
| Defensive | 01/12/2026 | 01/23/2026 | 9d | -2.19% |
| Expansion | 01/26/2026 | 02/13/2026 | 15d | +2.67% |
| Neutral | 02/17/2026 | 02/20/2026 | 4d | +8.71% |
| Defensive | 02/23/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 5d | +7.52% |
| Neutral | 03/02/2026 | 03/06/2026 | 5d | +9.34% |
| Defensive | 03/09/2026 | 03/20/2026 | 10d | +11.20% |
| Neutral | 03/23/2026 | 03/27/2026 | 5d | +13.06% |
| Defensive | 03/30/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 3d | +16.19% |
| Neutral | 04/02/2026 | 04/02/2026 | 1d | +13.87% |
| Defensive | 04/06/2026 | 04/10/2026 | 5d | +13.18% |
| Expansion | 04/13/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 5d | +9.56% |
| Defensive | 04/20/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 5d | +5.93% |
| Expansion | 04/27/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 20d | +3.22% |
| Neutral | 05/26/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 14d | +1.60% |
| Defensive | 06/15/2026 | 06/18/2026 | 4d | +0.40% |
| Neutral | 06/22/2026 | 06/24/2026 | 3d | +1.30% |
| Expansion | 06/25/2026 | 07/21/2026 | 18d | +5.34% |
| Neutral | 07/22/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 3d | +3.26% |
| Expansion | 07/27/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 5d | +4.05% |
| Neutral | 08/03/2026 | 08/14/2026 | 10d | +1.58% |
| Defensive | 08/17/2026 | 09/25/2026 | 29d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 09/28/2026 | 10/02/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Defensive | 10/05/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 15d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 10/26/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 5d | ongoing |
| Defensive LIVE | 11/02/2026 | current | 4d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
US winter nat gas consumption tracks heating-degree-days directly. Climatology-normal HDD is already priced through the seasonal curve. What moves gas is the ANOMALY against normal. The signal reads NOAA CPC weekly US48 HDD (actual minus normal), runs a 52-week rolling z-score, and tanh-bounds it. Positive composite means colder than normal (bullish gas). Negative composite means warmer than normal (bearish gas).
Why it matters
Why HDD anomaly predicts nat gas forward returns
US residential and commercial heating is the single biggest winter nat gas demand driver. 50 percent of US homes heat with gas. Climatology-normal HDD is priced through the seasonal curve. What moves gas is the ANOMALY against normal.
Why the WEATHER-ONLY-DATA-STARTS-2022 caveat matters
The underlying NOAA CPC weekly release only begins 2022-01. Mapped onto the 1990-forward NG benchmark this creates a thin signal: only 910 state-firing days across the full 9,134 benchmark sample. For a US48 aggregate signal this is workable. For higher-conviction use, pair with the ERCOT demand YoY composite and the US power-burn composite.
How to use this signal today
The composite -0.932 reading is mildly positive but inside the Normal band. US HDD is running a touch cold against seasonal norm but not at anomaly-firing extremity.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 07, 2026 10:26 PM ET