NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Regional Demand
Z102179 – [NG] ERCOT Demand YoY Z
Texas runs more than 40 percent gas in its generation mix. ERCOT load growth reads directly into US gas demand. The signal tracks YoY ERCOT demand against a 52-week rolling norm.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.462
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
NG Bear Ercot Down
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
7 sessions
Current Moderate NEG run.
As of Nov 02, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
ERCOT is the Texas electric grid operator, covering roughly 90 percent of Texas electric consumption. Texas is the largest US state by power generation, and gas is more than 40 percent of its generation mix. ERCOT load growth transmits directly to Henry Hub nat gas demand.
The polarity is CLEAN MONOTONIC. State plus one (ERCOT demand YoY running hot) delivers plus 2.46 percent forward 60-day, a plus 3.53 percentage point edge above the minus 1.06 percent baseline. State minus one (ERCOT demand YoY running cold) delivers minus 2.90 percent fwd 60-day, a minus 1.84pp edge below the baseline. The state-conditional edge is 5.37pp across the full 35-year sample.
LIVE CHART
ERCOT demand YoY against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the ERCOT demand YoY composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means Texas electric demand running hot (bullish gas). Negative means Texas demand running cold (bearish gas). The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX natural gas.
COMPOSITE
-0.462 / tanh
STATE
NG Bear Ercot Down
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
-2.90% (edge -1.84pp)
SAMPLE N
8,926 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NG Bear Ercot Down
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.462 (NG Bear Ercot Down, 7 sessions). ERCOT demand YoY is running a half-standard-deviation below 52-week norm. State Moderate NEG has historically delivered minus 2.90 percent forward 60-day, a minus 1.84pp edge below baseline.
THE REGIONAL-DEMAND MECHANIC
Texas is the largest US generation market and gas is 40 percent of its generation mix. ERCOT load growth transmits directly to Henry Hub nat gas demand. The polarity is CLEAN MONOTONIC with a 5.37pp state-conditional edge.
HOW TO POSITION
Read alongside the US HDD anomaly weather-demand read and the US power-burn composite for a multi-channel demand view. ERCOT weekly settlement data refreshes each Tuesday.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.462, firmly in the NG Bear Ercot Down band. The bronze NG line is trading near 2.86.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.462 Tanh-bounded 52-week z-score of ERCOT Texas electric load YoY. In the NG Bear Ercot Down band.
- Raw rolling z-score -0.31 ERCOT demand YoY sits about a half-standard-deviation below its 52-week trailing average.
- Phase run 7 sessions Current Moderate NEG regime, early in the run.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE ERCOT SIGNAL IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.462 sits in the NG Bear Ercot Down band, 7 sessions into the current regime. Raw z is -0.31, meaning ERCOT demand YoY is running about a half-standard-deviation below the 52-week rolling average. The state-conditional forward sixty-day edge is minus 1.84pp below baseline.
THE NG DEMAND STACK
This signal is the REGIONAL-DEMAND leg of the NG demand stack. The HDD anomaly reads residential heating. The US power-burn composite reads national power-sector demand. This signal reads TEXAS, the single largest US gas-demand region.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above plus 0.5 (Extreme POS). That requires ERCOT load growth YoY to accelerate. Second, the composite drops below minus 0.5 (Extreme NEG).
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the ERCOT demand YoY composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1991 through present, 8,926 live-signal days). CLEAN MONOTONIC three-regime edge with 5.37pp top-to-bottom spread.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERCOT cold (bearish gas demand) TODAY | -1 | 4.4% (395 d) | -2.90% | -1.84pp | Oct 2026, May 2026, Feb 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 86.8% (7752 d) | -1.02% | +0.04pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| ERCOT hot (bullish gas demand) | +1 | 6.7% (597 d) | +1.55% | +2.61pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Mar 2026 |
The historical pattern of ERCOT regional demand regimes
The signal across ERCOT regional demand history
What this measures
Texas runs more than 40 percent gas in its generation mix, and ERCOT covers 90 percent of Texas electric consumption. ERCOT load growth YoY is one of the few regional gas-demand reads available on a weekly cadence. The signal reads ERCOT load YoY against its 52-week rolling norm and tanh-bounds the z-score.
Why it matters
Why ERCOT demand YoY predicts nat gas forward returns
Texas is the largest US state by power generation. Gas is 40 percent of the Texas generation mix. ERCOT covers 90 percent of Texas electric load. When ERCOT demand YoY runs hot, Texas gas-fired generation burn rises, and the Henry Hub pull is directly measurable. The polarity is clean monotonic with a 5.37pp top-to-bottom edge.
Why this is the regional-demand complement to HDD and power-burn
The NG demand stack reads three structurally-distinct channels. HDD anomaly reads residential heating (winter-weighted). US power-burn reads national power-sector demand (cooling-weighted). This signal reads TEXAS SPECIFICALLY, where the gas-share-of-generation is highest in the US.
How to use this signal today
The composite -0.462 reading is in the NG Bear Ercot Down band and the phase has been running 7 sessions. The state-conditional forward sixty-day edge is minus 1.84pp below baseline.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 09:19 PM ET