· Analytic
Z6626 LC Cattle on Feed Placements YoY Signal
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total placements year-over-year with 5-year median-absolute-deviation z-score as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.885
Low Placements extreme-positive, 73d running
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, COF placements below 5y baseline
Sample
Daily CME, 26-year span
NASS COF placements 12m YoY, 2000+
Daily IC
+0.213 (p < 1e-56)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, n = 5,462
Non-overlap IC
+0.265 (p = 0.011)
Every-60d, n = 92, independently significant
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.33%
Unconditional mean (live window)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS publishes the Cattle on Feed report monthly, with total placements the single most-watched line by Live Cattle traders. Placements of feeder cattle into feedlots today become finished-cattle supply 150 to 200 days later. Heavy placements signal forward supply overhang; light placements signal forward supply tightening. The empirical mechanism is truth-inverse to the a-priori intuition: while heavy placements intuitively seem bullish (strong feedlot demand pulling feeders through the pipeline), empirically heavy placements PREDICT bearish Live Cattle fwd60d because the pipeline fills with cattle that will market at depressed prices 4 to 6 months later. The signal applies a sign-flip to encode this truth-inverse polarity. This signal reads NASS Cattle on Feed total placements, computes 12-month year-over-year percent change clipped to +/- 50 percent, applies a 5-year rolling median-absolute-deviation (MAD) z-score robust to the fat-tailed PEDv-era and COVID shock months, lags 20 calendar days for publication delay, and bounds with tanh after sign-flip. The memorable finding: Grade A directional. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is plus 0.213 at p-value below 1e-56 across 5,462 trading days. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.265 at p-value 0.011 across 92 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Low Placements) delivers +3.33 percent fwd60d (+2.00 pp above baseline, hit 71 percent). Phase -1 (Heavy Placements) delivers -1.26 percent (-2.59 pp below baseline, hit 48 percent). 4.59 pp directional spread. Current reading: Low Placements extreme-positive firing at composite plus 0.885, 73 trading days running. NASS COF placements have been running sustained below the 5-year baseline. Historical Phase +1 delivers +2.00 pp above baseline. Strong bullish-LC lean.
LIVE CHART
LC Cattle on Feed Placements YoY Signal
Composite reads plus 0.885 as of October 30, 2026, in the Low Placements extreme-positive band. NASS COF placements have been running sustained below the 5-year MAD baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$215-225 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.885 / tanh
STATE
Low Placements Ex
PHASE
+1
DAILY IC
+0.213 (p < 1e-56)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.011
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Low Placements extreme-positive at composite +0.885, 73 trading days running. Phase +1 (Low Placements) historically delivers +3.33 percent fwd60d / 71 percent hit / +2.00 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Heavy Placements) delivers -1.26 percent / 48 percent hit / -2.59 pp below baseline. Daily IC +0.213 at p-value below 1e-56. Independence test at p-value 0.011 across 92 non-overlapping samples.
THE COF PLACEMENT MECHANISM
NASS Cattle on Feed total placements = feeder cattle entering feedlots this month. 150-200 days later they become finished-cattle supply. Heavy placements YoY = overhang 4-6 months out = bearish LC. Light placements = pipeline thinning = bullish LC. Truth-inverse to a-priori intuition.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as high-conviction directional lean. Pair with the LC-Corn Ratio signal, the LC CFTC Positioning signal, the LC Cattle Inventory Semi-Annual signal, and the LC Beef Packer Margin signal. In the current Low Placements extreme band, strong bullish lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at plus 0.885 in the Low Placements extreme-positive band. The blue signal line has moved above the plus 0.5 extreme threshold as NASS COF placements have moved sustained below the 5-year MAD baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$215-225 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.885 State Low Placements extreme-positive firing, 73 days running.
- NASS COF placements below 5y baseline USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total placements 12-month YoY is in the lowest percentile of the 5-year MAD distribution. Feedlots cautious; pipeline thinning.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC plus 0.213 at p-value below 1e-56. Independence test at p-value 0.011 across 92 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PLACEMENT CALL
Composite +0.885, Low Placements extreme-positive. NASS COF placements have been running sustained below the 5-year MAD baseline. Pipeline thinning 4-6 months out.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 historical fwd60d LC mean plus 3.33 percent (plus 2.00 pp vs baseline, hit 71 percent). Strong bullish lean. Phase -1 (Heavy Placements) is the strongly-bearish band at minus 2.59 pp below baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC plus 0.213 at p-value below 1e-56 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.011 across 92 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Truth-inverse polarity — read empirical direction, not a-priori "heavy = bullish" intuition.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 5,462 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.33 percent mean. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation. Truth-inverse polarity.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Placements TODAY | +1 | 23.6% (2134 d) | +2.09% | +1.07pp | Jul 2026, May 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 54.1% (4892 d) | +1.91% | +0.88pp | Jun 2026, Jan 2026, Apr 2025 | |
| Heavy Placements | -1 | 22.4% (2023 d) | +0.70% | -0.32pp | Apr 2026, Feb 2026, Mar 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Placements | 10/30/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 16d | +3.76% |
| Low Placements | 11/21/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 21d | +1.06% |
| Normal | 12/23/2024 | 01/17/2025 | 18d | -3.47% |
| Heavy Placements | 01/21/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 22d | -12.83% |
| Low Placements | 02/21/2025 | 03/20/2025 | 20d | -0.85% |
| Heavy Placements | 03/21/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 20d | +5.95% |
| Normal | 04/21/2025 | 05/20/2025 | 22d | +22.22% |
| Low Placements | 05/21/2025 | 01/20/2026 | 167d | +10.37% |
| Normal | 01/21/2026 | 02/20/2026 | 22d | +3.61% |
| Heavy Placements | 02/23/2026 | 03/20/2026 | 20d | +7.52% |
| Low Placements | 03/23/2026 | 04/20/2026 | 20d | +13.06% |
| Heavy Placements | 04/21/2026 | 05/20/2026 | 22d | +5.57% |
| Low Placements | 05/21/2026 | 06/18/2026 | 20d | +3.33% |
| Normal | 06/22/2026 | 07/20/2026 | 20d | +1.30% |
| Low Placements | 07/21/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 73d | +2.85% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total placements monthly release, computes 12-month YoY percent change clipped to [-0.5, +0.5], applies 5-year (60-month) rolling MAD z-score clipped to [-3, +3], shifts 20 calendar days forward for publication lag, sign-flips to encode truth-inverse polarity (heavy placements = bearish LC), and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly NASS release cadence.
Why it matters
Why COF placements are the single most-watched LC indicator
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed is published around the 20th of each month covering the prior month. The report carries three key lines: on-feed inventory (snapshot), placements (feeders entering feedlots), and marketings (cattle sold out). Placements is the forward-supply indicator because feedlot cattle require 150-200 days to reach finish weight. Heavy placements this month become finished-cattle supply 4-6 months later — bearish LC. Light placements signal pipeline thinning — bullish LC.
Why Grade A with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is plus 0.213 at p-value below 1e-56 across 5,462 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.011 across 92 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. The 5-year MAD z-score is robust to the fat-tailed PEDv-era (2014) and COVID (2020) shock months that break standard z-score transforms.
How to use this signal today
In the current Low Placements extreme-positive band, strong bullish LC lean. Pair with the LC-Corn Ratio signal (feedlot producer margin, Grade A), the LC CFTC Positioning signal (positioning extremes), the LC Cattle Inventory Semi-Annual signal (structural herd), and the LC Beef Packer Margin signal. When Low Placements aligns with tight structural supply, bullish-LC conviction is very high.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 07:56 PM ET