· Analytic
Z85192 FC NASS Placements YoY Signal
NASS all-weight cattle placements year-over-year z-scored on 36 months as a Grade B+ directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.362
Low Placements moderate-negative firing
Signal state
Moderate NEG
phase -1, placements below 36-month baseline
Sample
Daily CME, 26-year span
NASS all-weight placements 36m z-score, 2000+
Daily IC
-0.176 (p < 1e-45)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 6,460
Non-overlap IC
-0.235 (p = 0.014)
Every-60d sample, n = 108, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.61%
Unconditional mean (live window)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed reports monthly placements of feeder cattle into feedlots across ALL weight classes combined. This signal reads the all-weight placement pace year-over-year, z-scored on a 36-month rolling window, as a feedlot-absorption flow signal for feeder cattle forward direction. The empirical mechanism: when all-weight placements run HIGH YoY, feedlots have already pulled feeder supply forward into pen capacity, reducing residual feeder demand over the next 60 days — bearish FC. When all-weight placements run LOW YoY, feedlots are quiet, feeder supply backs up in the system, and future feeder prices firm — bullish FC. The engine declares positive composite = bullish FC a-priori (heavy placements = strong FC demand), but empirical validation shows TRUTH-INVERSE direction. The memorable finding: Grade B+ directional with independent-sample confirmation. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.176 at p-value below 1e-45 across 6,460 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is minus 0.235 at p-value 0.014 across 108 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase -1 (Low Placements) delivers +3.11% fwd60d (+1.50 pp above baseline, hit 63%). Phase +1 (High Placements) delivers +0.27% (-1.34 pp below baseline, hit 50%). 2.84 pp directional spread. Current reading: Low Placements moderate-negative firing at composite minus 0.362, 127 trading days running. NASS all-weight placements are running below the 36-month baseline. Historical Phase -1 delivers plus 1.50 pp above baseline — moderate bullish-FC lean.
LIVE CHART
FC NASS Placements YoY Signal
Composite reads minus 0.362 as of October 30, 2026, in the Low Placements moderate-negative band. NASS all-weight placements are running below the 36-month baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
-0.362 / tanh
STATE
Low Placements
PHASE
-1
DAILY IC
-0.176 (p < 1e-45)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.014
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Low Placements moderate-negative firing at composite -0.362. Phase -1 (Low Placements) historically delivers +3.11 percent fwd60d / 63 percent hit / +1.50 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (High Placements) delivers +0.27 percent / 50 percent hit / -1.34 pp below baseline. Daily IC -0.176 at p-value below 1e-45. Independence test at p-value 0.014 across 108 non-overlapping samples.
THE PLACEMENT MECHANISM
All-weight NASS placements measure total feedlot absorption of feeders. High placements = feedlots full = less residual feeder demand = bearish FC next 60 days. Low placements = feedlots quiet = feeder supply backs up = bullish FC as supply firms. Truth-inverse to engine a-priori.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Low Placements band, moderate bullish lean. Complementary to the FC Light Placement Pace signal which reads under-700-lb weight class only.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at minus 0.362 in the Low Placements moderate-negative band. The blue signal line has moved below the minus 0.2 threshold as NASS all-weight placements have moved below the 36-month baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.362 State Low Placements moderate-negative firing.
- NASS all-weight placements below 36m baseline NASS Cattle on Feed all-weight placements year-over-year z-score is running below the 36-month rolling baseline. Feedlot absorption of feeders is soft.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC minus 0.176 at p-value below 1e-45. Independence test at p-value 0.014 across 108 non-overlapping samples. Grade B+ truth-inverse polarity.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PLACEMENT CALL
Composite minus 0.362, Low Placements moderate-negative. NASS all-weight placements are running below the 36-month baseline. Feedlot absorption of feeders is soft.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase -1 (Low Placements) historical fwd60d FC mean plus 3.11 percent (plus 1.50 pp vs baseline, hit 63 percent). Moderate bullish lean. Phase +1 (High Placements) is the bearish band at -1.34 pp below baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC minus 0.176 at p-value below 1e-45 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.014 across 108 non-overlapping samples. Grade B+ directional. Truth-inverse polarity — read empirical direction, not a-priori declaration.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 6,460 trading days with RUN-ENTRY sampling. Baseline FC fwd60d: plus 1.61 percent. Grade B+ directional with independent-sample confirmation (daily IC -0.176, non-overlap -0.235 p=0.014). Methodology note: the run-entry stats shown here are more attenuated than per-day stats. Per-day Phase -1 mean is +3.11% (+1.50pp bullish) and Phase +1 is +0.27% (-1.34pp bearish). Per-day IC is the authoritative directional-edge measure.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Placements | +1 | 25.1% (2334 d) | +1.29% | +0.08pp | Apr 2026, Feb 2026, Sep 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 42.4% (3947 d) | -0.01% | -1.22pp | Oct 2025, Jan 2025, Aug 2024 | |
| Low Placements TODAY | -1 | 32.5% (3020 d) | +1.31% | +0.10pp | May 2026, Mar 2026, Nov 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 26-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Placements | 10/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 2d | +3.76% |
| Low Placements | 11/01/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 41d | +5.39% |
| Normal | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.05% |
| Low Placements | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| High Placements | 03/03/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 21d | +0.68% |
| Low Placements | 04/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 105d | +9.62% |
| High Placements | 09/02/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 21d | +5.43% |
| Normal | 10/01/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 23d | +3.27% |
| Low Placements | 11/03/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 61d | +1.26% |
| High Placements | 02/02/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 19d | +2.33% |
| Low Placements | 03/02/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 22d | +9.34% |
| High Placements | 04/01/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 21d | +13.09% |
| Low Placements | 05/01/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 127d | +1.22% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS Cattle on Feed all-weight placements, computes year-over-year percent change, z-scores on 36-month rolling window, clips to [-3, +3], and bounds with tanh. Engine declares positive composite = bullish FC a-priori; empirical validation shows TRUTH-INVERSE polarity (positive = bearish FC fwd60d). State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.6 (extreme). Monthly NASS release cadence.
Why it matters
Why all-weight placements read total feedlot absorption
NASS Cattle on Feed placements by all weight classes combined measures total feedlot absorption of feeder cattle each month. Unlike the light-weight-only subset, the all-weight series captures the complete feedlot buying pattern across heifers, steers, and all weight ranges. The year-over-year z-score normalizes against the 36-month cycle position.
Why Grade B+ with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.176 at p-value below 1e-45 across 6,460 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.014 across 108 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. 2.84 pp directional spread between tails. Grade B+ directional confirmation.
How to use this signal today
In the current Low Placements moderate-negative band, moderate bullish FC lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Light Placement Pace signal (under-700-lb weight class only), the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. The all-weight and light-weight placement signals are COMPLEMENTARY — read both for complete placement-flow coverage.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 04:41 PM ET