· Analytic
Z6637 FC US Herd Inventory Signal
USDA NASS semiannual total cattle and calves inventory, z-scored on two years — the strongest-IC structural signal on CME Feeder Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.097
Normal regime, dormant
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, total inventory tracking baseline
Sample
Semiannual USDA NASS, 36-year span
US total cattle+calves YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.297 (p < 1e-182)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d; non-overlap test p<0.001 also sig
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.20%
Unconditional mean
Large Herd fwd60d
+4.12% mean
+2.92 pp above baseline, 69% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS publishes the Cattle Inventory report twice per year — January 31 and July 24 — covering the total US cattle and calves count across every category (beef cows, dairy cows, bulls, heifers, steers, calves). This TOTAL herd count is distinct from the breeding-herd subset (beef cows only) that drives the LC cycle — the TOTAL captures the full pipeline including young cattle that will become feeders over the next 12 to 18 months. This signal is the strongest-IC signal in the entire FC fundamental stack. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.297 at p-value < 1e-182 across 9,049 trading days -- the highest IC I have found across the LC/FC library. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value < 0.001 across 150 independent samples -- INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Large Herd Regime) delivers +4.12% fwd60d (+2.92 pp edge above the +1.20% baseline, hit 69%). Phase -1 (Small Herd Regime) delivers -1.69% fwd60d (-2.89 pp edge, hit 40%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers -0.07%. 5.8+ pp directional spread. This signal reads NASS semiannual total cattle inventory YoY, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Semiannual USDA release. Large Herd Regime (positive composite) means US total cattle+calves is running materially above year-ago. Feeder supply is ample as the pipeline fills with young cattle. Historically BULLISH FC forward -- the large-herd regime coincides with cycle expansion phases where cash cattle firm and feeder demand ramps. Small Herd Regime (negative composite) means total inventory is below year-ago. Historically BEARISH FC forward -- the small-herd regime coincides with contraction phases where feeder scarcity does NOT translate to firm cash because broader demand destruction dominates. Current reading: Normal regime at composite +0.097 -- total inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline. Signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase +1 (Large Herd, strongly bullish) or Phase -1 (Small Herd, strongly bearish) for an actionable high-conviction read. Read on for the historical anchors and how to pair with the FC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
FC US Herd Inventory Signal
Composite reads +0.097 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal regime band. NASS semiannual total cattle and calves inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.097 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
-0.07% (baseline +1.20%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal regime, 30 days running. Phase +1 (Large Herd) delivers mean fwd60d FC +4.12%, hit 69%, +2.92 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Small Herd) delivers -1.69% / 40% hit / -2.89 pp. 5.8 pp directional spread.
THE STRUCTURAL MECHANISM
Large US total cattle inventory = full supply pipeline + cycle expansion phase = bullish FC forward. Small inventory = contraction phase coinciding with demand destruction = bearish FC. Normal equilibrium is dormant.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with FC term structure, LC/FC ratio, LC-corn ratio, and the LC fundamental stack. US total herd is the longest-lead FC structural supply anchor; use for cycle-phase direction.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.097 in the Normal regime band. The blue signal line is near zero as NASS semiannual total inventory tracks the 2-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.097 State Normal, dormant.
- NASS total inventory at baseline Semiannual total cattle+calves is running near the 2-year baseline — no material structural signal.
- State-conditional edge: -1.27 pp mean Normal regime historical fwd60d FC mean -0.07%, baseline +1.20%, hit 49%. Signal is dormant until transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE INVENTORY CALL
Composite +0.097, Normal regime. NASS semiannual total cattle+calves inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline closely. No material structural signal.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Normal regime historically delivers mean fwd60d FC -0.07% (-1.27 pp vs baseline, hit 49%). The signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase +1 (strongly bullish) or Phase -1 (strongly bearish).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.297 is the STRONGEST in the FC/LC library. Non-overlap independence test p<0.001 ALSO significant. Grade A structural anchor. Semiannual cadence slows transitions.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.20 percent mean. STRONGEST-IC signal in the FC/LC library with 5.8+ pp directional spread.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Herd Regime | +1 | 38.8% (3512 d) | +0.92% | -0.28pp | Feb 2026, Jan 2024, Jan 2023 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 38.9% (3516 d) | +0.83% | -0.37pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2025, Jul 2023 | |
| Small Herd Regime | -1 | 22.3% (2021 d) | -0.70% | -1.91pp | Aug 2022, Aug 2021, Jul 2020 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS semiannual Cattle Inventory report, US TOTAL ALL CATTLE AND CALVES series. Computes year-over-year percent change, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Semiannual USDA release (January 31 and July 24).
Why it matters
Why total herd inventory reads the FC cycle
USDA NASS publishes semiannual Cattle Inventory covering the full US cattle and calves count across every category. The TOTAL herd (not just the beef cow breeding subset) captures the full pipeline including young cattle that will become feeders over the next 12-18 months. Large total inventory = cycle expansion phase with ample pipeline supply and firm cash. Small total inventory = contraction phase with scarcity-DOESNT-TRANSLATE-TO-FIRMNESS because broader demand destruction dominates.
Why Grade A — strongest IC in the library
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is +0.297 at p-value < 1e-182 across 9,049 observations -- the STRONGEST I have found across the LC/FC library. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test independence test at p-value < 0.001 across 150 independent samples -- INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Large Herd) delivers +2.92 pp above baseline at 69% hit rate; Phase -1 (Small Herd) delivers -2.89 pp below baseline at 40% hit rate. 5.8 pp directional spread.
How to use this signal today
Pair with FC term structure, LC/FC ratio, LC-corn ratio (feedlot-margin), and the LC fundamental stack. US total herd is the longest-lead FC structural supply anchor — use for cycle-phase direction. When the signal is in Normal regime (currently), direction is unclear; watch for transition.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 03:01 PM ET