· Analytic
Z102407 FC Northern SNOTEL SWE Signal
Montana plus Wyoming plus Idaho SNOTEL snow-water equivalent z-scored on 5 years and inverted — Grade A directional water-supply signal with the strongest IC in the FC library tied to US Herd Inventory.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.563
Wet Mountain moderate-negative firing
Signal state
FC Bear Late Placement
phase -1, MT/WY/ID SWE above 5y baseline
Sample
Daily CME, 36-year span
Northern-tier SNOTEL SWE, 1990+
Daily IC
+0.297 (p < 1e-182)
Non-overlap IC
+0.298 (p = 0.0001)
Every-60d sample, n = 150, strongly significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.20%
Unconditional mean
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The USDA NRCS SNOTEL network tracks snow-water equivalent (SWE) at hundreds of mountain-west stations. The April 1 SWE reading predicts summer water and forage availability across Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho BLM grazing allotments — the northern-tier stocker-and-cow-calf country. High SWE forecasts a wet summer with good forage, which DELAYS feeder placement as ranchers hold cattle on pasture longer. Low SWE forecasts dry conditions and early placement into feedlots. The mechanism (truth-tested): SNOTEL SWE above normal indicates good summer water supply, which delays Mountain-West feeder placement into feedlots. This flows forward as thinner feeder supply over the next 60 days. SNOTEL SWE below normal indicates dry conditions, triggering early feeder placement and heavier forward feeder supply. The engine INVERTS the raw z-score so that positive composite = low SWE (dry mountain, early placement, bullish-FC); negative composite = high SWE (wet mountain, delayed placement, bearish-FC through late-summer supply flood). The memorable finding: strongest IC in the FC library tied to the US Herd Inventory anchor. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.297 at p-value below 1e-182 across 8,989 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.298 at p-value 0.0001 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase -2 (High SWE Ex) delivers +6.82% fwd60d in sample (+5.61 pp above baseline, hit 79%) when it fires — but counter-intuitively this is historically the deepest cell. Phase +1 (Low SWE) delivers +3.14% (+1.94 pp above baseline, hit 65%). Phase -1 (High SWE) delivers -1.00% (-2.21 pp below baseline, hit 45%). Current reading: FC Bear Late Placement moderate-negative firing at composite minus 0.563, 83 trading days running. Northern SNOTEL SWE is running above the 5-year baseline. Historical Phase -1 delivers minus 2.21 pp below baseline — moderate bearish-FC lean.
LIVE CHART
FC Northern SNOTEL SWE Signal
Composite reads minus 0.563 as of October 30, 2026, in the Wet Mountain moderate-negative band. Northern-tier SNOTEL SWE is running above the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
-0.563 / tanh
STATE
Wet Mountain
PHASE
-1
DAILY IC
+0.297 (p < 1e-182)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.0001
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
FC Bear Late Placement
STATE AND HISTORY
Wet Mountain moderate-negative firing at composite minus 0.563. Phase +1 (Dry Mountain) historically delivers +3.14 percent fwd60d / 65 percent hit / +1.94 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Wet Mountain) delivers -1.00 percent / 45 percent hit / -2.21 pp below baseline. Daily IC +0.297 at p-value below 1e-182. Independence test at p-value 0.0001 across 150 non-overlapping samples.
THE MOUNTAIN-WATER MECHANISM
SNOTEL SWE above 5-year baseline indicates wet mountain summer and good forage. Ranchers delay feeder placement into feedlots to graze cattle longer. Delayed placement thins forward feeder supply briefly before flooding late-summer market with heavier feeders — empirically bearish FC fwd60d. Low SWE = dry = early placement = bullish FC fwd60d.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Wet Mountain Phase -1 band, moderate bearish lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at minus 0.563 in the Wet Mountain moderate-negative band. The blue signal line has moved below the minus 0.5 extreme threshold as northern-tier SNOTEL SWE has moved above the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.563 State Wet Mountain moderate-negative firing.
- MT/WY/ID SNOTEL SWE above 5y baseline Mean 60-day SWE across northern-tier SNOTEL stations is above the 5-year rolling baseline. Good summer water supply expected — delayed Mountain-West placement.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC plus 0.297 at p-value below 1e-182. Independence test at p-value 0.0001 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Strongest IC in FC library tied to US Herd Inventory.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SNOTEL CALL
Composite minus 0.563, Wet Mountain moderate-negative. Northern-tier SNOTEL SWE is running above the 5-year baseline. Good summer water and forage expected — delayed Mountain-West placement.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase -1 (Wet Mountain) historical fwd60d FC mean minus 1.00 percent (minus 2.21 pp vs baseline, hit 45 percent). Moderate bearish lean. Phase +1 (Dry Mountain) is the strongly-bullish band at +1.94 pp above baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC plus 0.297 at p-value below 1e-182 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.0001 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Strongest IC in FC library tied to US Herd Inventory anchor.
THE REGIME MAP
The three active states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.20 percent mean. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation. Engine runs 5-state map at thresholds plus or minus 0.3 and plus or minus 0.7; the live regime table collapses to 3 rows (Dry Mountain combines Phase +1 and +2; Wet Mountain combines Phase -1 and -2).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Mountain | +1 | 35.0% (3165 d) | +2.01% | +0.81pp | Feb 2026, Feb 2025, Mar 2024 | |
| Normal | 0 | 21.7% (1964 d) | +0.37% | -0.83pp | Jun 2026, Dec 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Wet Mountain TODAY | -1 | 43.3% (3920 d) | -0.06% | -1.27pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2025, Jul 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wet Mountain | 10/30/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 43d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 01/02/2025 | 02/19/2025 | 33d | -4.05% |
| Dry Mountain | 02/20/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 31d | -2.65% |
| Dry Mountain Ex | 04/04/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 39d | +22.79% |
| Dry Mountain | 06/02/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 14d | +9.10% |
| Normal | 06/23/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 14d | +9.84% |
| Wet Mountain | 07/14/2025 | 12/22/2025 | 114d | +7.09% |
| Normal | 12/23/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 26d | -4.74% |
| Dry Mountain | 02/02/2026 | 04/10/2026 | 48d | +2.33% |
| Dry Mountain Ex | 04/13/2026 | 05/15/2026 | 25d | +9.56% |
| Dry Mountain | 05/18/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 19d | +5.31% |
| Normal | 06/15/2026 | 07/06/2026 | 14d | +0.40% |
| Wet Mountain | 07/07/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 83d | +2.00% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls daily SNOTEL snow-water equivalent (SWE, wteq_in) readings from Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho stations. Computes mean 60-day SWE across the northern belt, z-scores on 5-year rolling window, bounds with tanh, and INVERTS the sign. The 5-state engine uses thresholds plus or minus 0.3 and plus or minus 0.7. Positive composite = dry mountain = early placement = bullish FC. Negative composite = wet mountain = delayed placement = bearish FC. Daily release.
Why it matters
Why SNOTEL SWE predicts Mountain-West placement timing
The USDA NRCS SNOTEL network measures daily snow-water equivalent at hundreds of mountain-west stations. April 1 SWE is the industry benchmark for summer water and forage prediction. High SWE means good summer forage — ranchers hold cattle on pasture longer and DELAY feedlot placement. Low SWE means dry summer and poor forage — ranchers push cattle to feedlots EARLY. The timing shift flows forward through the feeder cattle market over 60 to 90 days.
Why Grade A tied to strongest IC in FC library
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.297 at p-value below 1e-182 across 8,989 observations — strongest IC in FC library tied to US Herd Inventory anchor (plus 0.297 for both). Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.0001 across 150 independent samples — STRONGLY SIGNIFICANT. The directional ordering holds across per-day and run-entry sampling.
How to use this signal today
In the current Wet Mountain moderate-negative band, moderate bearish FC lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Light Placement Pace signal (Grade A placement flow), the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. When SNOTEL and herd inventory align on direction, conviction is high.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 04:37 PM ET