· Analytic
Z1426 FC TX Panhandle Polar Vortex Event Signal
Texas Panhandle plus Oklahoma plus Kansas calf-source belt polar-vortex event detector — Grade A directional signal with the second-strongest IC in the FC library on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.000
Normal, DORMANT (no event firing)
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, 188 days since last event
Sample
Daily CME, 17-year span
Panhandle-OK-KS TMIN event detector, 2010+
Daily IC
+0.303 (p < 1e-88)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 4,172 — 2nd strongest in FC library
Non-overlap IC
+0.367 (p = 0.002)
Every-60d sample, n = 70, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+2.09%
Unconditional mean (live window)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas form the largest calf-source belt in the United States. This event detector fires when mean minimum temperature drops below 10 degrees Fahrenheit across this belt — a signature of polar vortex intrusions. Cold events cause calf death-loss and winter wheat pasture kill, which tightens forward feeder supply over the subsequent 60 to 90 days. The mechanism: when a polar vortex drops TMIN below 10 F in the calf-source belt, cow-calf operators lose newborn calves to cold exposure and winter wheat pasture carrying capacity is damaged. The feeder supply tightens through the pipeline over 60-90 days as the lost calves fail to reach feedlot placement age. Historical event firings are bullish-FC. The memorable finding: Grade A directional with the second-strongest IC in the FC library (after US Herd Inventory). Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.303 at p-value below 1e-88 across 4,172 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.367 at p-value 0.002 across 70 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (polar vortex event firing) delivers +3.81 percent fwd60d (+1.73 pp above baseline, hit 69 percent). The signal is highly event-driven — 97.7 percent of the sample is Phase 0 (no event). When Phase +1 fires, the forward return is strongly bullish-FC. Current reading: Normal at composite 0.000, 188 trading days since the last event firing. The signal is DORMANT. Watch for TMIN drops below 10 F across the Panhandle-OK-KS belt as a trigger.
LIVE CHART
FC TX Panhandle Polar Vortex Event Signal
Composite reads 0.000 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal band. No polar vortex event firing. Last event firing was 188 trading days ago. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
DAILY IC
+0.303 (p < 1e-88)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.002
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal firing at composite 0.000, 188 days since last event. Phase +1 (polar vortex event) historically delivers +3.81 percent fwd60d / 69 percent hit / +1.73 pp above baseline. Daily IC +0.303 at p-value below 1e-88. Independence test at p-value 0.002 across 70 non-overlapping samples. Highly event-driven — 97 percent of sample is Phase 0 Normal.
THE POLAR VORTEX MECHANISM
TMIN below 10 F in the TX Panhandle plus OK plus KS calf-source belt causes calf death-loss and winter wheat pasture kill. Feeder supply tightens through the pipeline over 60-90 days as lost calves fail to reach feedlot placement age.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as high-conviction tactical read when Phase +1 fires. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current dormant Normal band, no directional lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at 0.000 in the Normal band. The blue signal line is at the neutral centerline as no polar vortex event is firing in the TX Panhandle-OK-KS calf-source belt. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite 0.000 State Normal, no event firing.
- TMIN above 10 F threshold across belt Mean TMIN across TX Panhandle plus OK plus KS calf-source belt stations is above the 10 degree Fahrenheit event-trigger threshold. 188 trading days since last event firing.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC plus 0.303 at p-value below 1e-88. Independence test at p-value 0.002 across 70 non-overlapping samples. Second-strongest IC in the FC library after US Herd Inventory anchor.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE POLAR VORTEX CALL
Composite 0.000, Normal. No polar vortex event firing. The last event firing was 188 trading days ago. Signal is DORMANT — waiting for next cold-event trigger.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (polar vortex event) historical fwd60d FC mean plus 3.81 percent (plus 1.73 pp above baseline, hit 69 percent). Strong bullish lean when firing. The signal fires only 2.3 percent of trading days.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC plus 0.303 at p-value below 1e-88 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.002 across 70 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Second-strongest IC in the FC library after the US Herd Inventory anchor.
THE REGIME MAP
The two active states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 4,172 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 2.09 percent mean. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation. Event-driven — 2 states active (Phase +1 and Phase 0). Warm Event (Phase -1) is inactive — the engine does not emit a bearish lean.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polar Vortex Event | +1 | 2.3% (96 d) | +3.81% | +3.5 | +1.73 pp | 2026-02, 2025-01, 2024-01 |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 97.7% (4076 d) | +2.05% | -0.3 | -0.04 pp | Dominant regime (current, 188d) |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 17-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/30/2024 | 01/03/2025 | 45d | +3.76% |
| Polar Vortex Event | 01/06/2025 | 01/06/2025 | 1d | -9.85% |
| Normal | 01/07/2025 | 01/17/2025 | 9d | -14.16% |
| Polar Vortex Event | 01/21/2025 | 01/29/2025 | 7d | -12.83% |
| Normal | 01/30/2025 | 02/12/2025 | 10d | -8.96% |
| Polar Vortex Event | 02/13/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 11d | -4.39% |
| Normal | 03/03/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 226d | +0.68% |
| Polar Vortex Event | 01/26/2026 | 02/02/2026 | 6d | +2.67% |
| Normal | 02/03/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 188d | +4.22% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls daily TMIN temperature data for Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas weather stations in the calf-source belt. Computes mean TMIN across the belt. Fires an event when mean TMIN drops below 10 degrees Fahrenheit. Event intensity is tanh-scaled and decays linearly over 10 trading days. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily release cadence.
Why it matters
Why the TX-OK-KS belt is the calf-source anchor
The Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas together produce the largest share of US feeder cattle supply. Cow-calf operations in this belt generate newborn calves in winter months that will become feeder-cattle market inventory 6 to 12 months later. Cold events during the calving season cause calf death-loss. Cold events during the winter wheat growing season cause pasture carrying capacity damage. Both effects tighten forward feeder supply.
Why Grade A with second-strongest IC in FC library
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.303 at p-value below 1e-88 across 4,172 observations — the second-strongest IC in the FC library after the US Herd Inventory anchor. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.002 across 70 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. The event-driven signal fires on 2.3 percent of days; when it fires, the directional edge is strongly bullish-FC.
How to use this signal today
In the current Normal (dormant) band, no directional lean. Watch for TMIN drops below 10 F across the Panhandle-OK-KS belt as a trigger. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. When a polar vortex event fires AND structural supply is tight, direction is high-conviction bullish-FC.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 04:31 PM ET