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Z102373 FC LC Ratio Lag60d Signal

Log LC/FC ratio z-scored on 252 days then lagged 60 days — Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.

At a glance

As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.

OBJECTIVE

The log LC/FC ratio z-scored on 252 days captures the relative pricing between finished and feeder cattle. This signal takes that z-score and lags it 60 trading days — the composite today reads where the ratio was approximately three months ago. The mechanism: the relative-pricing information embedded in LC/FC takes time to flow through the feedlot pipeline back to feeder cattle. High LC/FC 60 days ago (deferred finished-cattle firmness) predicts bullish FC today as feedlot demand pulls feeder prices forward. The memorable finding: strongest IC in this signal cohort after the US Herd Inventory anchor. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.214 at p-value less than 1e-94 across 9,173 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.231 at p-value 0.004 across 153 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. The engine runs a 5-state regime map at thresholds plus or minus 0.3 and plus or minus 0.7. Phase +1 (FC Bull Lag High) delivers +3.40% fwd60d (+2.17 pp above baseline, hit 66%). Phase +2 (Strong FC Bull) delivers +2.96%. Phase -1 (FC Bear Lag Low) delivers -1.30% (-2.52 pp below baseline, hit 43%). Phase -2 (Strong FC Bear) delivers -0.47%. 5.92 pp spread between tails. Current reading: Neutral at composite minus 0.124, 9 trading days running. The lagged LC/FC ratio is near zero. The signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1 for an actionable high-conviction read.

LIVE CHART

THE TAKEAWAY

THE REGIME MAP

Computed from 9,173 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.22 percent mean. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation. Methodology note: engine emits 5 phases at thresholds plus or minus 0.3 and plus or minus 0.7; the live regime table collapses these into 3 rows (Phase +2 folded into FC Bull Lag High; Phase -2 folded into FC Bear Lag Low) for reader simplicity.

The historical pattern

THE TRACK RECORD

Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.

The signal pulls CME Live Cattle and CME Feeder Cattle back-adjusted continuous closes, computes log(LC/FC), z-scores on a 252-day rolling window, bounds with tanh, and LAGS the result 60 trading days. The engine uses a 5-state regime map at thresholds plus or minus 0.3 and plus or minus 0.7. Daily release.

Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.

Last refreshed Nov 1, 2026 06:39 PM ET