· Analytic
Z3769 FC Light Placement Pace Signal
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed light-weight placements (under 700 lbs) monthly, z-scored on 5 years — Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.180
Normal, DORMANT read
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, placements near baseline
Sample
Daily CME, 36-year span
NASS COF light placements, 1990+
Daily IC
-0.219 (p < 1e-97)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 8,989
Non-overlap IC
-0.269 (p = 0.0009)
Every-60d sample, n = 150, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.20%
Unconditional mean
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed reports monthly placements of feeder cattle into feedlots by weight class. The lightest classes — under 600 pounds plus 600 to 699 pounds — represent young feeders entering feedlots. This signal reads the monthly light-weight placement pace as a flow measure of feedlot absorption of young cattle. The empirical mechanism: when light placements run HIGH (z-score above +0.3), feedlots have already pulled feeder supply forward into pen capacity, reducing residual feeder demand over the next 60 days — BEARISH FC. When light placements run LOW (z-score below -0.3), feedlots are quiet, feeder supply backs up in the system, and the next cycle of placements must come from a market where supply has firmed — BULLISH FC. The memorable finding: strongest-IC signal in the FC library after the US Herd Inventory anchor. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.219 at p-value below 1e-97 across 8,989 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is minus 0.269 at p-value 0.0009 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase -1 (Low Placements) delivers +4.01% fwd60d (+2.81 pp above baseline, hit 66%). Phase +1 (High Placements) delivers -1.09% (-2.30 pp below baseline, hit 46%). 6.31 pp directional spread — the widest in the FC library. Current reading: Normal at composite minus 0.181, 43 trading days running. Light placements are tracking the baseline. The signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase -1 (strongly bullish FC) or Phase +1 (strongly bearish FC) for an actionable high-conviction read.
LIVE CHART
FC Light Placement Pace Signal
Composite reads minus 0.181 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal band. NASS light-weight placements are tracking the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
-0.181 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
DAILY IC
-0.219 (p < 1e-97)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.0009
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal firing at composite -0.181. Phase -1 (Low Placements) historically delivers +4.01 percent fwd60d / 66 percent hit / +2.81 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (High Placements) delivers -1.09 percent / 46 percent hit / -2.30 pp below baseline. Daily IC -0.219 at p-value below 1e-97. Independence test at p-value 0.0009 across 150 non-overlapping samples.
THE PLACEMENT MECHANISM
Light placements measure feedlot absorption of young feeders. High placements = feedlots full = less residual feeder demand = bearish FC next 60 days. Low placements = feedlots quiet = feeder supply backs up = bullish FC as supply firms.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean when Phase +1 or Phase -1 fires. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, the LC-corn ratio signal, and the LC fundamental stack. In the current Normal band, direction is unclear.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at minus 0.181 in the Normal band. The blue signal line is near the neutral centerline as NASS light-weight placements track the 5-year baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.181 State Normal, placements tracking baseline.
- NASS light-weight placements near baseline Monthly NASS release shows feedlot absorption of young feeders tracking the rolling 5-year average. Neither tight nor heavy.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC minus 0.219 at p-value below 1e-97. Independence test at p-value 0.0009 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Strongest-IC signal in the FC library after the US Herd Inventory anchor.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PLACEMENT CALL
Composite -0.181, Normal firing. NASS light-weight placements are tracking the 5-year baseline. Signal is DORMANT.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase -1 (Low Placements) is the strongly-bullish band at +2.81 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (High Placements) is the strongly-bearish band at -2.30 pp below baseline. Current Normal reading is near-neutral.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC -0.219 at p-value below 1e-97 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.0009 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Engine polarity is truth-inverse to a-priori declaration — read empirical direction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.20 percent mean. Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation. Engine polarity truth-inverse.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Placements | +1 | 19.6% (1771 d) | -0.57% | -1.78pp | Oct 2025, Oct 2024, Sep 2023 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 45.8% (4145 d) | +0.09% | -1.11pp | Sep 2026, Dec 2025, Sep 2025 | |
| Low Placements | -1 | 34.6% (3133 d) | +1.01% | -0.20pp | Feb 2026, Feb 2025, Jun 2024 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Placements | 10/30/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 22d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 12/02/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 42d | -3.29% |
| Low Placements | 02/03/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 145d | -7.23% |
| Normal | 09/02/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 21d | +5.43% |
| High Placements | 10/01/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 42d | +3.27% |
| Normal | 12/01/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 42d | +0.84% |
| Low Placements | 02/02/2026 | 08/31/2026 | 146d | +2.33% |
| Normal | 09/01/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 43d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS Cattle on Feed weight-class placement data (series under 600 pounds plus 600 to 699 pounds), aggregates monthly totals, z-scores on a 5-year rolling window, and bounds with tanh. The engine declares positive composite = bullish FC a-priori; empirical validation shows TRUTH-INVERSE polarity (positive = bearish FC fwd60d). Read empirical direction. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly NASS release cadence.
Why it matters
Why light placements read feedlot demand for young feeders
Cattle on Feed placements by weight class is a monthly NASS release showing how many feeders feedlots pulled off pasture or from auction markets into pen capacity. The lightest classes (under 700 lbs combined) represent young cattle that will remain in the feedlot through most of the 150-200 day feeding cycle. The pace of light-weight placements is a direct flow measure of feedlot absorption. Fast pace empties the feeder-market inventory ahead; slow pace leaves inventory building up for the next placement cycle.
Why Grade A with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.219 at p-value below 1e-97 across 8,989 observations — the strongest IC in the FC library after the US Herd Inventory anchor. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.0009 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. 6.31 pp directional spread between tails — the widest in the FC library. Grade A directional confirmation.
How to use this signal today
In the current Normal band, the signal is DORMANT. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Term Structure Curve signal (market consensus), the LC-corn ratio signal (Grade A LC anchor), and the LC fundamental stack. Watch for transition to Phase -1 for a +2.81 pp bullish-FC lean or Phase +1 for a -2.30 pp bearish-FC lean.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 03:27 PM ET