· Analytic
Z1430 FC Cattle Crush Margin Signal
Cattle crush margin (CCM = 12.5 LC – 7.5 FC – 50 Corn) z-scored on 2 years as a Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.913
Profitable CCM extreme-positive firing
Signal state
Extreme Profitable CCM
phase +1, feedlot margins deeply profitable
Sample
Daily CME-CBOT, 36-year span
Board-crush CCM z-score, 1990+
Daily IC
-0.196 (p < 1e-77)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 8,984
Non-overlap IC
-0.259 (p = 0.001)
Every-60d sample, n = 150, independently significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.21%
Unconditional mean
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The board-crush formula for cattle sits at the heart of feedlot producer economics. CCM equals 12.5 times the Live Cattle price minus 7.5 times the Feeder Cattle price minus 50 times the Corn price. The coefficients reflect the standard conversion ratios: one 1,250-pound finished steer sold out, one 750-pound feeder bought in, and 50 bushels of corn fed through. The margin tells you whether feedlots are making money or losing it on the current combination of input and output prices. The empirical mechanism: when CCM runs HIGH (profitable feedlots), feedlots have already pulled feeder supply forward into pen capacity, reducing residual feeder demand over the next 60 days — bearish FC. When CCM runs LOW (loss-making feedlots), feedlots pull back from feeder buying, tightening forward feeder supply — bullish FC. The engine declares positive composite = bullish FC a-priori, but empirical validation shows TRUTH-INVERSE direction. The memorable finding: Grade A directional signal with independent-sample confirmation. Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.196 at p-value below 1e-77 across 8,984 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is minus 0.259 at p-value 0.001 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase -1 (Loss CCM) delivers +3.53% fwd60d (+2.33 pp above baseline, hit 67%). Phase +1 (Profitable CCM) delivers +0.32% (-0.89 pp below baseline, hit 51%). 3.22 pp directional spread. Current reading: Extreme Profitable CCM at composite plus 0.913, 16 trading days running. Feedlot margins are deeply profitable. Historical Phase +1 delivers minus 0.89 pp below baseline. Modest bearish-FC lean.
LIVE CHART
FC Cattle Crush Margin Signal
Composite reads plus 0.913 as of October 30, 2026, in the Profitable CCM extreme-positive band. Feedlot board-crush margins are deeply profitable. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.913 / tanh
STATE
Profitable CCM Ex
PHASE
+1
DAILY IC
-0.196 (p < 1e-77)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.001
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Profitable Ccm
STATE AND HISTORY
Profitable CCM extreme-positive firing at composite +0.913. Phase -1 (Loss CCM) historically delivers +3.53 percent fwd60d / 67 percent hit / +2.33 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (Profitable CCM) delivers +0.32 percent / 51 percent hit / -0.89 pp below baseline. Daily IC -0.196 at p-value below 1e-77. Independence test at p-value 0.001 across 150 non-overlapping samples.
THE CRUSH-MARGIN MECHANISM
CCM = 12.5 LC – 7.5 FC – 50 Corn. High CCM = profitable feedlots = feedlots have pulled feeder supply forward = less residual feeder demand = bearish FC. Low CCM = loss-making feedlots = feedlots pull back from feeder buying = tight forward feeder supply = bullish FC. Truth-inverse to engine a-priori declaration.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC Term Structure Curve signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Profitable CCM extreme band, modest bearish lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at plus 0.913 in the Profitable CCM extreme-positive band. The blue signal line has moved to the upper bound as board-crush margins have reached deeply profitable levels. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.913 State Profitable CCM extreme-positive firing.
- Board-crush CCM deeply profitable Feedlot board-crush margin is in the highest percentile of the 2-year distribution. Feedlots have incentive to pull feeder supply forward aggressively.
- Non-overlap IC confirms directional edge Daily IC minus 0.196 at p-value below 1e-77. Independence test at p-value 0.001 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional confirmation.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CRUSH-MARGIN CALL
Composite plus 0.913, Profitable CCM extreme-positive. Feedlot board-crush margins are deeply profitable — the highest profitability percentile in the 2-year window.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Profitable CCM) historical fwd60d FC mean plus 0.32 percent (minus 0.89 pp vs baseline, hit 51 percent). Modest bearish lean. Phase -1 (Loss CCM) is the strongly-bullish band at +2.33 pp above baseline.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC minus 0.196 at p-value below 1e-77 strongly significant. Independence test at p-value 0.001 across 150 non-overlapping samples. Grade A directional. Engine polarity is truth-inverse — read empirical direction, not a-priori economic declaration.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,984 trading days using RUN-ENTRY sampling (one observation per state run). Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.21 percent mean. Grade A directional with independent-sample confirmation (daily IC -0.196, non-overlap -0.259 p=0.001). IMPORTANT: run-entry sampling shown here produces OPPOSITE sign from per-day sampling. See the methodology section for the per-day vs run-entry divergence explanation. The per-day IC is the authoritative directional-edge measure.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitable CCM TODAY | +1 | 65.2% (5896 d) | +1.96% | +0.76pp | Oct 2026, May 2026, May 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 7.8% (701 d) | +0.96% | -0.24pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Loss CCM | -1 | 27.1% (2447 d) | -0.46% | -1.66pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2023 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profitable CCM | 10/30/2024 | 01/28/2025 | 61d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 01/29/2025 | 01/29/2025 | 1d | -8.50% |
| Profitable CCM | 01/30/2025 | 02/05/2025 | 5d | -8.96% |
| Normal | 02/06/2025 | 02/06/2025 | 1d | -7.06% |
| Profitable CCM | 02/07/2025 | 02/12/2025 | 4d | -6.99% |
| Normal | 02/13/2025 | 02/21/2025 | 6d | -4.39% |
| Profitable CCM | 02/24/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 264d | -0.73% |
| Normal | 03/13/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 1d | +11.29% |
| Profitable CCM | 03/16/2026 | 03/17/2026 | 2d | +8.43% |
| Normal | 03/18/2026 | 03/20/2026 | 3d | +12.14% |
| Profitable CCM | 03/23/2026 | 03/23/2026 | 1d | +13.06% |
| Normal | 03/24/2026 | 03/26/2026 | 3d | +14.32% |
| Profitable CCM | 03/27/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 21d | +15.64% |
| Normal | 04/28/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 6d | +3.83% |
| Profitable CCM | 05/06/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 2d | +3.25% |
| Normal | 05/08/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 4d | +4.36% |
| Profitable CCM | 05/14/2026 | 05/15/2026 | 2d | +2.99% |
| Normal | 05/18/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 2d | +5.31% |
| Profitable CCM | 05/20/2026 | 08/14/2026 | 60d | +4.24% |
| Normal | 08/17/2026 | 08/20/2026 | 4d | |
| Loss CCM | 08/21/2026 | 09/29/2026 | 27d | |
| Normal | 09/30/2026 | 10/05/2026 | 4d | |
| Loss CCM | 10/06/2026 | 10/06/2026 | 1d | |
| Normal | 10/07/2026 | 10/08/2026 | 2d | |
| Profitable CCM | 10/09/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 16d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls CME Live Cattle, CME Feeder Cattle, and CBOT Corn back-adjusted continuous closes, computes the board-crush margin CCM = 12.5 LC – 7.5 FC – 50 Corn, z-scores on a 504-day (2-year) rolling window, and bounds with tanh. Engine declares positive composite = bullish FC a-priori; empirical validation shows TRUTH-INVERSE polarity (positive = bearish FC fwd60d). State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily release.
Why it matters
Why the board-crush margin reads feedlot pull-forward
CCM equals 12.5 times LC minus 7.5 times FC minus 50 times Corn, representing the margin on one 1,250-pound finished steer sold out, one 750-pound feeder bought in, and 50 bushels of corn fed through. When CCM is high, feedlots are making money and have incentive to pull feeder supply forward aggressively. When CCM is low or negative, feedlots lose money on new placements and pull back. The empirical direction is truth-inverse: pulling forward depletes short-term feeder demand (bearish FC); pulling back firms short-term feeder supply (bullish FC).
Why Grade A with independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is minus 0.196 at p-value below 1e-77 across 8,984 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.001 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. 3.22 pp directional spread between tails. Grade A directional confirmation.
How to use this signal today
In the current Profitable CCM extreme-positive band, modest bearish FC lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal (strongest-IC structural anchor), the FC Light Placement Pace signal (feedlot absorption flow), the FC Term Structure Curve signal (market consensus), and the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot producer margin — Grade A LC anchor). The CCM signal is COMPLEMENTARY to the light-placement-pace signal: CCM reads the margin INCENTIVE, light placements read the ACTION.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 03:54 PM ET