· Analytic
LH Retail Pork Consumer Absorption
Monthly US retail pork price change, year-over-year, inverted and tanh-bounded, read against CME Lean Hogs forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.924
extreme-neg band
Signal state
Moderate NEG
phase -1
36-year sample
8,986 observable fwd60d days
1990-11-29 to Oct 30, 2026
Historical IC
-0.0667
Spearman vs LH fwd60d, p = 2.5e-10
Baseline LH fwd60d
+0.262%
Unconditional mean
extreme-pos fwd60d
+1.68%
+1.42 pp above baseline, bimodal pair
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
A pound of boneless pork chops at the grocery store runs about $4. 50 today, up roughly 12 percent from where it was two years ago. That retail price, released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a demand-absorption readout: when the shopper is willing to pay up, the wholesale pork complex gets the push-through signal; when they are not, the complex has to grind. This signal takes retail pork year-over-year, flips the sign, and bounds it to plus or minus one so that elevated retail prices print negative on the chart. In February 2019, after the PEDv-era herd collapse worked through the system, the signal sat in its extreme-positive band and lean hog futures rallied 52 percent over the next sixty days. In July 2016, the signal pushed to extreme-negative on cost-push inflation and lean hog futures fell 37 percent over the next sixty days. The memorable twist: moderate-elevated retail pork, not screaming high and not weak, is historically the worst setup for lean hogs ; the middle band delivers minus 0.6 percent against a plus 1.6 percent baseline, while both extremes outperform. Read on for the five-case history, the state the signal reads right now, and why the extremes beat the middle.
LIVE CHART
LH Retail Pork Consumer Absorption
Composite reads -0.92 as of October 30, 2026, in the moderate-negative band, 106 trading days running since June 1, 2026. Elevated retail pork year-over-year through 2026 has pushed the composite into persistent moderate-negative territory. The historical state-conditional edge for this band is plus 0.80 points above the plus 1.59 percent baseline, a modestly constructive backdrop.
COMPOSITE
-0.924 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+2.20% (baseline +1.59%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Moderate-negative firing, 106 trading days running. State-conditional fwd60d LH mean is +2.39%, +0.80 pp above the +1.59% baseline.
WHY BIMODAL
Both extremes outperform; moderate-positive paradoxically underperforms by -2.21 pp. Producer response to extreme signals drives the pattern.
HOW TO POSITION
Modestly constructive band on history. Pair with Hogs and Pigs quarterly placements and slaughter cadence for the full LH read.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.924 in the moderate-negative band, 106 trading days running since June 1, 2026. The blue signal line has pressed persistently into moderate-negative territory through H2 2026 while CME lean hogs (orange) have traded range-bound in the $56-$62 zone. The engine’s state-conditional edge for moderate-negative is +0.80 points above the +1.59% baseline, modestly constructive on history. The rolling IC pane shows the 252-day Spearman has drifted negative recently, consistent with the signal’s long-term IC sign.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.924 State Moderate NEG; 106 trading days running in current firing since June 1, 2026.
- Raw z-score -1.61 365-day percent change of US BLS retail pork-chop price, z-scored on a 5-year window with 252-day minimum, sign-flipped at the engine so that elevated retail pork prints negative, tanh-bounded.
- State-conditional edge: +0.80 pp Moderate-negative historical fwd60d LH mean +2.39%, baseline +1.59% (edge +0.80 pp). Modest Spearman IC -0.067 at h=60d. Bimodal pattern ; both extremes outperform, middle moderate-positive band underperforms by -2.21 pp.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CONSUMER-DEMAND CALL.
Composite -0.924, extreme-neg band. Retail pork YoY has been elevated through 2026 relative to the trailing norm.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT.
extreme-neg historically delivers mean fwd 60-day LH +0.83 percent, +0.57 pp above the +0.26 percent baseline. Twenty-seven percent of the sample sat in this band. Modestly constructive band in the bimodal pattern.
THE HONEST CAVEAT.
Modest IC, bimodal pattern, lagged relationship. Pair with Hogs and Pigs quarterly placements, slaughter cadence, and belly inventory for the full LH read.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LH fwd60d. Baseline LH fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.59 percent mean, plus 0.26 percent median, 10.9 percent standard deviation, 49.5 percent negative.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak Consumer Pork | +1 | 37.2% (3369 d) | -3.87% | -5.47pp | Oct 2025, Apr 2020, Dec 2018 | |
| Normal | 0 | 20.0% (1810 d) | -0.87% | -2.47pp | May 2026, Aug 2025, Apr 2025 | |
| Firm Consumer Pork TODAY | -1 | 42.8% (3870 d) | +3.05% | +1.46pp | Jun 2026, Nov 2025, May 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 10/30/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 43d | +3.76% |
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.05% |
| Negative | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 21d | +0.68% |
| Negative | 04/01/2025 | 04/21/2025 | 14d | +9.62% |
| Neutral | 04/22/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 7d | +19.03% |
| Negative | 05/01/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 63d | +13.75% |
| Neutral | 08/01/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 42d | +10.22% |
| Positive | 10/01/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 23d | +3.27% |
| Negative | 11/03/2025 | 04/30/2026 | 123d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 05/01/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 20d | +1.22% |
| Negative | 06/01/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 107d | +0.99% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LH is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly retail pork prices under its Average Price Data program. The signal takes the pork-chop series, computes a year-over-year percent change, z-scores it on a five-year rolling window, applies a sign flip so that elevated retail pork prints negative, and bounds the output with tanh to plus or minus one. The result is a composite that reads consumer demand absorption against the trailing norm and maps to a five-state regime machine with thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.6 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why retail pork year-over-year reads consumer demand absorption
Retail pork prices are set at the grocery store by what the consumer will pay. Wholesale pork prices are set at the packer by what the retailer will pay. When retail pork is firm year-over-year, the retailer has successfully pushed through the wholesale cost, which means the wholesale push-through signal is working. When retail is weak, the retailer is eating the margin and the next round of push-through is harder. The signal reads this absorption layer as a six-to-eight-week leading indicator for the wholesale pork complex and, through it, for lean hog futures.
Why the empirical pattern is bimodal, not linear
The historical state-conditional pattern shows BOTH extremes delivering above-baseline fwd60d (weak-consumer-pork +0.65 points, firm-consumer-pork +0.61 points) while the middle moderate-positive band paradoxically underperforms by 2.21 points. The mechanism: at extreme readings, producers respond ; a weak-consumer-pork reading indicates demand rebuild is coming (hog placements slow, future supply tightens), and a firm-consumer-pork reading precedes a demand reset (retail resistance triggers producer-side correction). The moderate-positive band is where the market is pricing push-through without the producer-side signal kicking in ; forward returns disappoint.
How to use this signal today
Treat as a demand-absorption lens, not a sizing input on its own. The current moderate-negative firing is modestly constructive on history (+0.80 pp above baseline), but the Spearman IC is only minus 0.067, so the state-conditional edge is noisier than the Lean Hog composite’s strongest signals (commercial positioning, term structure). Pair with the Hogs and Pigs quarterly placements report, weekly federally-inspected slaughter cadence, and belly cold-storage data for the full LH read.
GO DEEPER
Want the full depth?
The research brief walks through 36 years of US BLS retail pork year-over-year vs CME Lean Hogs forward returns, documents the bimodal state-conditional pattern (both extremes outperform, moderate-positive is the paradoxical weak band), and sets out the producer-response mechanism that drives the bimodality.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 10:35 AM ET