GC · Metals / Positioning-Regime Event Detector
Z7080 – GC Gold Positioning Regimes Event Signal
Three defined positioning regimes in gold fire as discrete events roughly 2 to 3 times per year; firing days have historically been followed by above-baseline gold returns at the 60-day horizon.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.000
Decay since last firing; 1.0 is day of fire, 0 is 3-plus weeks later
Signal state
Normal
22 trading days in current state
Phase
NEUTRAL
Positive equals within decay window; zero equals between firings
Firings
97 total
36 years of positioning-regime firings, 2-3 per year
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
This is not a continuous direction signal. The signal identifies discrete moments when gold positioning enters one of three defined regime patterns. On a firing day the composite jumps to plus 1.0 and then decays exponentially with a time-constant of 5 to 7 days back toward zero. Between firings the composite sits at zero. Across 36 years the signal has fired 97 times, roughly 2 to 3 times per year on average, 4 to 5 per year in the recent window. The appropriate validation metric is event-day forward 60-day gold return, not daily correlation. Event-day fwd 60d gold has been plus 1.20 percent versus all-day baseline plus 0.74 percent, a 61 basis-point edge with percent-negative 41 percent versus baseline 49 percent. Recent firings include October 30 2025, March 24 2026, June 11 2026, August 11 2026, and September 24 2026. Today the composite reads +0.000, in Normal territory.
LIVE CHART
The 504-day z-score of a multi-input composite of US credit-quality indicators including BAA-AAA corporate spreads, 9016 trading days of history for GC.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite, bounded between 0 and 1. Each spike to 1.0 is a firing day; each downward curve after a spike is the exponential decay back to zero. The pale red band at the top marks the within-decay window where a firing is still carrying forward. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC against gold forward 60-day returns. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce. Watch for new spikes to plus 1.0 as the actionable signal events.
COMPOSITE
+0.804 / tanh
STATE
Extreme Pos
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+5.24% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,016 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND READING
Normal, 22 days running. Composite at +0.000 is in the range.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
The underlying input is at its current level relative to the 504-day baseline. The composite reflects this with the sign-convention stated in section 2.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
The signal's historical edge is concentrated at the tanh-saturation extremes (composite below minus 0.5 or above plus 0.5). The cross-sample Pearson IC of -0.0248 on SPY forward-sixty-day is a reference-asset read; the appropriate direct read is GC forward returns, which are not computed as a baseline in this page.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads +0.000, placing the dot inside the Normal band. The last firing-day was September 24, 2026; today the signal is decaying or between firings. Watch for new spikes to plus 1.0 as the actionable event; the daily decay-value does not carry new information between firings.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Three positioning-regime definitions I3 regime classifier applied to gold positioning data.
- Exponential decay 5-to-7-day time-constant decay from firing day back toward zero.
- Market phase direction Direction of the current state run from the engine Market_Phase_Int column.
THE REGIME MAP
The six regime states
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Within decay window | +1 | 9.5% (881 d) | +1.07% | +0.33pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Between firings TODAY | 0 | 90.5% (8376 d) | +0.71% | -0.03pp | Oct 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
8 state transitions from 01/02/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (99 total transitions since 11/30/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d GC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 03/03/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 105d | +0.68% |
| Defensive | 08/01/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 21d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 09/02/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 44d | +5.43% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Defensive LIVE | 01/02/2026 | current | 212d | -4.81% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day GC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal implements three curated positioning-regime definitions for gold. On a day when positioning enters one of the three defined regimes, the signal fires: the composite jumps to plus 1.0 and then decays exponentially with a 5-to-7-day time-constant back toward zero. Between firings the composite sits at zero. This is an event-sparse detector; the information is in the firing days, not the daily composite level.
Why it matters
Each firing day marks a specific positioning-regime transition. Across 97 firings the event-day forward 60-day gold return has been plus 1.20 percent versus baseline plus 0.74 percent. The regime definitions catch positioning extremes that historically precede constructive gold moves.
The daily composite is not a direction signal; between firings it sits at zero or near zero as decay runs. The actionable information is the firing events themselves. When composite spikes to 1.0 that is the moment to engage; subsequent decay days do not carry new information.
The signal has 97 firings across 9,275 trading days (roughly 1 percent of days). Standard daily IC is diluted to near-zero by the 99 percent zero-fill days. Event-day IC is the appropriate validation metric. Readers expecting a conventional IC reading will be confused.
GO DEEPER
What the Gold Credit-Quality Composite signal actually tells you (and when it does not)
The brief covers the three positioning-regime definitions, the exponential decay methodology, three signature firing clusters (early-sample firings, mid-sample firings, 2025-2026 recent firings), and four caveats on reading an event-sparse signal. Includes event-day forward return validation.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 10:44 PM ET