NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Price Technicals
Z85523 – [NG] 20-Day Momentum Z
Recent price carries in nat gas because storage-flow traders and physical commercials react to 20-day moves. The composite z-scores the 20-day log-return.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.740
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Moderate NEG
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
12 sessions
Current Moderate NEG run.
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Recent price carries in nat gas. A 20-day uptrend tends to extend. A 20-day downtrend tends to persist. This happens because storage-flow traders adjust injection-withdrawal cycles to recent price, and physical commercials pull inventory forward on uptrends and drain it on downtrends.
State-conditional edges are monotonic. Uptrend (state plus one) covers 37.0 percent of the sample and delivers a plus 0.57pp forward 60-day edge above the baseline. Downtrend (state minus one) covers 35.1 percent and delivers a minus 0.67pp edge. Historical fires include 2022-03 Ukraine spike (62 sessions, nat gas plus 38 percent), 2022-12 winter-storage-drain crash (46 sessions, nat gas minus 36 percent), 2008-07 GFC collapse (83 sessions, nat gas minus 23 percent).
LIVE CHART
Thirty-five years of 20-day natural gas momentum against NG forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the 20-day nat gas momentum composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means recent momentum up. Negative means recent momentum down. The bronze line in the middle panel is NYMEX natural gas (ratio-adjusted). Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 state thresholds.
COMPOSITE
-0.740 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
edge -0.67pp
SAMPLE N
8,935 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.740 (Moderate NEG, 12 sessions). Nat gas 20-day log-return is roughly one standard deviation below its 252-day rolling average. State Downtrend delivers minus 0.67pp forward 60-day edge.
THE MOMENTUM-CARRIES MECHANIC
Nat gas momentum works through storage-flow and physical-commercial behavior. Uptrends trigger injection deferrals and inventory pulls. Downtrends trigger storage drains and commercial exit. The 35-year monotonic edge pattern confirms it.
HOW TO POSITION
The signal is a state-conditional backdrop. Read alongside the the US 10-year TIPS yield real-rate overlay and other NG signals for a multi-channel NG view.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.740, firmly in the Moderate NEG band. The bronze nat gas line in the middle panel is trading near 2.90 (ratio-adjusted level).
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.740 Tanh-bounded 252-day z-score of the 20-day log-return of NYMEX nat gas ratio-adjusted continuous. In the Moderate NEG band.
- Raw rolling z-score -0.66 Nat gas 20-day log-return sits roughly one standard deviation below its 252-day rolling average.
- Phase run 12 sessions Current Moderate NEG regime.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE MOMENTUM READ IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.740 sits in the Moderate NEG band, 12 sessions into the current regime. The raw z is -0.66, meaning nat gas 20-day log-return is roughly one standard deviation below its 252-day rolling average. Translation. Recent price action is firmly bearish.
THE NG SIGNAL STACK
This signal is the price-technical leg of the NG signal family. The the US 10-year TIPS yield real-rate overlay reads macro cost. The power-plant thermal composite reads physical demand via satellite. Together they cover macro, technical, and physical-demand channels.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above plus 0.2 (Uptrend). That requires the 20-day log-return to turn positive. Second, the composite drifts back toward Normal.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the 20-day nat gas momentum composite (NYMEX natural gas benchmark, 1991 through present). CLEAN MONOTONIC three-regime edge.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtrend (momentum carries down) TODAY | -1 | 35.1% (3139 d) | -1.73% | -0.67pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| Neutral | 0 | 27.8% (2486 d) | -0.98% | +0.08pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Uptrend (momentum carries up) | +1 | 37.0% (3310 d) | -0.49% | +0.57pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 |
The historical pattern of nat gas 20-day momentum across trending regimes
The signal across 35 years of nat gas price momentum
What this measures
Storage-flow traders and physical commercials in natural gas react to recent price action. A 20-day uptrend triggers injection deferrals and inventory pulls that extend the move. A 20-day downtrend triggers storage drain and commercial exit that compound the decline. The 20-day log-return z-score captures this trend persistence.
Why it matters
Why 20-day momentum predicts forward returns in nat gas
Nat gas momentum works through storage-flow and physical-commercial behavior. When nat gas runs up for 20 days, three forces push the same way. Storage-flow traders defer injections. Physical commercials pull inventory forward. Speculators chase the entry. When nat gas runs down for 20 days, the mirror happens. The 35-year monotonic edge confirms the mechanic.
Why this is the price-technical complement to the real-rate overlay
The NG signal family reads multiple structurally-independent channels. The the US 10-year TIPS yield real-rate overlay reads macro cost of inventory carry. This signal reads recent price itself. The first is an external driver. The second is what the market has already done.
How to use this signal today
The composite -0.740 reading is in the Moderate NEG band and the phase has been running 12 sessions. The state-conditional forward sixty-day edge is minus 0.67pp below the baseline. Watch for the next 20-day log-return crossover.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 04:11 PM ET