SOYBEAN OIL SPECIALIST · Oilseed / Global Supply
Z3234 – [BO] Brazil Soyoil Production YoY (Inverted)
Brazil is the world’s second-largest soybean oil producer; a shortfall tightens global soy-complex supply and firms CBOT BO.
At a glance
Current composite
+0.988
On the plus-or-minus one scale; sign-inverted Brazil soyoil production YoY z-score.
Signal state
Extreme POS
Current state across the Brazil Bumper / Normal / Shortfall regime.
Phase duration
84 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
36 years
Monthly USDA FAS PSD Brazil soyoil production.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Brazil is the second-largest soybean oil producer (after US) and a major exporter via Brazilian crush industry serving Chinese + European cooking-oil demand. This signal reads USDA FAS PSD Brazil soybean oil production YoY from `fundamentals_data.db`, 5-year z-scored, tanh-bounded. Native +1 polarity for BO: high Brazil soyoil YoY = ample BO supply = bearish BO. Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) S_s_sup_2 wraps with -1 polarity flip based on empirical IC , in Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite)’s cross-wired context, high Brazil soyoil production (loose BO supply via joint-production transmission to S) empirically mean-reverts bearish-S over 20d. 4 percent weight in Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite) (equal-weight 25-member composite). Current val +0.988 at NEAR MAX reflects 2025-26 Brazil crush surge amid record soybean production + expanded crush capacity. Contribution to Soybean S-SUP-2 Answer (25-member Q&A composite): -0.039 (tied biggest-magnitude bearish with BO Crude Biodiesel Parity Signal).
LIVE CHART
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the sign-inverted Brazil soyoil production YoY composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means Brazilian production contraction (bullish CBOT BO via supply tightening), negative means Brazilian bumper production (bearish). The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT Soybean Oil front-month in cents per pound. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and BO 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
+0.988 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+2.56
SAMPLE N
9,000+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite +0.988, state Extreme POS, 84 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE BRAZIL MECHANISM
Brazil has grown into the world’s second-largest soybean oil producer behind the US, with output concentrated in the Center-West (Mato Grosso) and South (Rio Grande do Sul, Parana). Brazilian soyoil production YoY captures the supply-side response to crush capacity, soybean harvest size, and Brazilian export destination demand.
HOW TO POSITION
Structural global-supply read; the empirical pattern is weakly directional in the regime table. Pair with the Indonesia Palm Oil Supply signal (substitute supply) and the Renewable Diesel Pull/Input signals (US biofuel-demand channel) for a comprehensive BO balance picture.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.988. Signal state is Extreme POS, 84 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.988 State Extreme POS, 84 trading days running in the current phase.
- USDA FAS PSD Brazil soybean oil production YoY Monthly estimates in million tonnes, rolling z-score, sign-inverted.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PRODUCTION CALL
Composite +0.988, state Extreme POS, 84 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Per-state forward returns show a weakly directional pattern in the regime table — Normal regime posts the best 60-day forward returns, Brazil Shortfall and Brazil Bumper tail regimes run near baseline. The signal is best used as structural context rather than a sharp directional trigger.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Monthly USDA FAS PSD release cadence; Brazilian estimates can revise materially mid-year as Conab (national supply agency) publishes updates. The composite captures aggregate Brazilian production; sub-region data (Mato Grosso vs Rio Grande do Sul) can show counter-direction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three Brazil soyoil production regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on CBOT Soybean Oil forward returns. Weakly directional pattern; Normal regime posts the best forward returns.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Shortfall TODAY | +1 | 42.4% (3835 d) | +1.21% | -0.17pp | Jul 2026, Mar 2023, Oct 2020 | |
| Normal | 0 | 9.7% (881 d) | +1.85% | +0.47pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, Jul 2024 | |
| Brazil Bumper | -1 | 47.9% (4330 d) | +1.44% | +0.05pp | Jun 2026, Jul 2024, Jul 2024 |
The historical pattern
The signal across three decades of Brazilian soybean oil production
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d Soybean Oil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 10/23/2024 | 04/21/2026 | 374d | +4.92% |
| Neutral | 04/22/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 35d | +4.34% |
| Positive | 06/11/2026 | 06/12/2026 | 2d | +3.82% |
| Neutral | 06/15/2026 | 06/15/2026 | 1d | +0.40% |
| Positive | 06/16/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 91d | +1.86% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day Soybean Oil is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Brazil is the world’s second-largest soybean oil producer after the US; year-over-year contractions in Brazilian soyoil production tighten global soy-complex supply and firm CBOT soybean oil. The composite reads USDA FAS PSD Brazil soybean oil production YoY, rolling z-scored, sign-inverted so Brazilian contraction maps to a positive composite (bullish BO), tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why Brazil soyoil production reads global BO balance
Brazil is the world’s second-largest soybean oil producer after the US, with output concentrated in Center-West and Southern Brazil. Brazilian soyoil moves to global markets through Santos, Paranagua, and Rio Grande ports, serving China (soybeans largely), the Middle East, and North Africa. A Brazilian production shortfall tightens global soy-complex supply; a bumper crop loosens it.
Why the sign-inversion
Raw Brazil production YoY is a supply measure — more production equals more global soy oil supply, which is BEARISH BO. The signal sign-inverts so SHRINKING PRODUCTION reads as a POSITIVE composite (bullish BO), consistent with the convention used across the production-side signals. The inversion makes the signal directly stackable in a composite view where positive equals bullish BO.
How to use this signal today
Structural global-supply read; the empirical pattern is weakly directional. Pair with the Indonesia Palm Oil Supply signal (BO substitute-supply read), the Renewable Diesel Economic Pull signal (biofuel-demand channel), and the BO-HO Heating Oil Energy-Basis signal (market-structure context) for a comprehensive BO balance picture.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 09:43 PM ET