SOYBEAN OIL SPECIALIST · Oilseed / Biofuel Demand
Z2960 – [BO] Renewable Diesel Economic Pull
When renewable diesel economic-pull on soybean oil is strong, forward BO returns have delivered reliable above-baseline edge via the biofuel-mandate demand channel.
At a glance
Current composite
+0.234
On the plus-or-minus one scale; RD economic-pull composite.
Signal state
Moderate POS
Current state across the RD Pull Weak / Steady / Strong regime.
Phase duration
1 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
36 years
Daily RD economic-pull composite, 1990 onward.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US renewable diesel economics depend on multiple interacting factors: soybean oil feedstock cost, alternative-fuel pricing (heating oil / ULSD), the D4/D5 RINs market, the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, and state-level low-carbon fuel standards (California LCFS, Oregon CFP, Washington CFS). The signal reads a composite capturing the combined ECONOMIC-PULL on soybean oil feedstock demand.
This forward-looking signal is distinct from the Renewable Diesel Input companion signal (which reads realized EIA monthly feedstock usage). When the pull composite is strong, realized BO demand firms with a 3-to-6 month lag. The regime table below shows the per-state historical soybean oil forward-return edge; the RD Pull Strong state has been the above-baseline-returns regime across the live window.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of soybean oil renewable diesel economic-pull dynamics.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the US renewable diesel economic-pull composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means strong RD pull on soybean oil feedstock, negative means weak pull. The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT Soybean Oil front-month in cents per pound. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and BO 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
+0.234 / tanh
STATE
Moderate POS
PHASE
+0.33
SAMPLE N
9,000+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Pos
STATE AND PERCENTILE
Composite +0.234, state Moderate POS, 1 trading days running in the current phase.
WHY THE SIGNAL IS HERE
US renewable diesel economics are strong on the combined support of Section 45Z CFPC (effective 2025), California LCFS credits (approximately 60-80 USD/ton), and D4 RINs (approximately 2 USD/gal). The composite reads strong pull on BO feedstock demand.
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
RD Pull Strong is empirically the above-baseline state in BO forward returns. Pair with the Renewable Diesel Input signal (realized EIA feedstock usage) and the WTI vs Biodiesel Parity signal (crude-level context) to form the biodiesel-economics triplet.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.234. Signal state is Moderate POS, 1 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.234 State Moderate POS, 1 trading days running in the current phase.
- RD economic-pull composite Daily ratio of RD production margin to BO feedstock cost, 36-year expanding-window z-score, tanh-bounded.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT RD ECONOMIC PULL IS TELLING YOU
Composite +0.234, state Moderate POS, 1 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE FORWARD-LOOKING DEMAND MECHANISM
RD economic-pull is a forward-looking indicator that captures the economic attractiveness of adding renewable diesel capacity and running existing facilities at high utilization. Strong pull drives capacity expansion decisions, utilization rates, and feedstock contracting. Realized demand responds with 3-6 month lag (reflected in BO Renewable Diesel Input realized feedstock usage data).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
US renewable diesel policy is subject to political and regulatory changes. The 45Z CFPC has specific sunset provisions (currently through 2027). State LCFS policies can shift (CARB rulemaking, Oregon CFP program expansions). D4 RINs prices are volatile. The signal reads current pricing/policy conditions but future policy changes could rapidly shift the pull dynamics.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on CBOT Soybean Oil forward returns. Cleanly monotone structure consistent with the RD-demand-pull thesis.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RD Pull Strong TODAY | +1 | 41.0% (3709 d) | +3.60% | +2.06pp | Nov 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| RD Pull Steady | 0 | 20.2% (1827 d) | +0.58% | -0.96pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Sep 2026 | |
| RD Pull Weak | -1 | 38.8% (3510 d) | -0.10% | -1.65pp | Nov 2025, Nov 2025, Aug 2024 |
The historical pattern
The signal across three decades of US renewable diesel economic pull
THE TRACK RECORD
The last fourteen state transitions
14 transitions from 10/16/2025 to 10/23/2026. Full history 383 transitions.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d Soybean Oil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd Pull Strong | 10/23/2024 | 06/03/2025 | 153d | +4.92% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 06/04/2025 | 06/05/2025 | 2d | +8.24% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 06/06/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 1d | +7.26% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 06/09/2025 | 06/09/2025 | 1d | +8.24% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 06/10/2025 | 07/03/2025 | 17d | +7.32% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 07/07/2025 | 07/10/2025 | 4d | +7.33% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 07/11/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 1d | +7.70% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 07/14/2025 | 07/14/2025 | 1d | +7.09% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 07/15/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 13d | +8.19% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 08/01/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 1d | +10.22% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 08/04/2025 | 10/01/2025 | 42d | +8.85% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 10/02/2025 | 10/14/2025 | 9d | +2.78% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 10/15/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 1d | +4.51% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 10/16/2025 | 10/16/2025 | 1d | +5.01% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 10/17/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 1d | +3.91% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 10/20/2025 | 10/20/2025 | 1d | +3.12% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 10/21/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 1d | +3.03% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 10/22/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 8d | +1.46% |
| Rd Pull Weak | 11/03/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10d | +1.26% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 11/17/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 2d | +2.42% |
| Rd Pull Weak | 11/19/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 2d | +3.57% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 11/21/2025 | 12/02/2025 | 7d | +4.61% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 12/03/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 8d | -0.52% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 12/15/2025 | 12/17/2025 | 3d | -2.71% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 12/18/2025 | 01/08/2026 | 14d | -2.22% |
| Rd Pull Steady | 01/09/2026 | 02/03/2026 | 17d | -2.60% |
| Rd Pull Strong | 02/04/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 182d | +5.02% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day Soybean Oil is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
US renewable diesel economic pull on soybean oil feedstock combines RD production margin (BO vs HO and diesel fuel prices), RINs market (D4/D5), Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, and state LCFS credit prices. The composite reads this stack as the ratio of RD production margin to BO feedstock cost, 36-year expanding-window z-score, tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
RD ECONOMIC PULL IS FORWARD-LOOKING
This signal differs from BO Renewable Diesel Input (which reads realized EIA monthly feedstock usage data with 1-2 month lag). This signal reads the FORWARD-LOOKING economic pull on BO feedstock demand via current pricing and policy conditions. Strong pull precedes realized demand by 3-6 months. Readers can use this signal as a leading indicator for BO Renewable Diesel Input.
RD PULL STRONG IS THE STATISTICALLY-STRONGEST STATE
Across 36 years, RD Pull Strong state has delivered soybean oil forward returns with a meaningful positive edge above the live-window baseline; see the regime table below for the current per-state statistics. The directional signature holds across multiple distinct RD policy regimes (pre-RFS2, BTC era, 45Z era).
CONTRARIAN POLARITY IN BO Extremes Contrarian
The signal has polarity sign minus one in the BO Extremes Contrarian playbook. When RD Pull Strong fires (which is individually bullish for soybean oil), it contributes negatively to the Extremes Contrarian composite because that playbook is CONTRARIAN on soybean oil forward returns. The two-step polarity flip translates the individually-bullish RD Pull Strong pattern into a composite contribution consistent with the contrarian verdict ladder.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 09:14 PM ET