KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Global Growth
Z100219 – [KC] BDI Global Growth Z-Score Signal
Baltic Dry Index year-over-year captures global dry-bulk shipping demand and transmits the global-growth cycle to Arabica forward 60-day returns via the commodity-complex demand channel.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.036
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Baltic Exchange daily BDI release drives signal refresh.
Signal state
On Trend
16 days in Neutral phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
Baltic Exchange daily release
Sample
36-year window
Daily cadence; 1990 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The Baltic Dry Index tracks shipping rates for dry-bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains, soybeans) across major global trade routes. BDI rises when global industrial activity and commodity trade accelerate and falls when activity slows. It is widely used as a real-time proxy for global growth because shipping rates respond to demand before manufacturing surveys or GDP data confirm the cycle. Arabica is sensitive to the global-growth cycle via the commodity-complex demand channel. Daily Spearman IC against Arabica forward 60-day returns is plus 0.084 at p-value 1.4e-15 across 8,947 observations, strongly significant on the 36-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings deliver plus 0.49 pp above baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver minus 1.32 pp. 1.81 pp directional spread.
LIVE CHART
KC BDI Global Growth Z-Score Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is the Baltic Dry Index year-over- year percent change z-scored on a rolling 5-year window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means BDI running above the 5-year z-score mean (above-trend global growth); negative composite means below mean (below-trend growth). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
+0.036 / tanh
STATE
On Trend
PHASE
+0.15
PHASE +1 EDGE
+0.49 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-1.32 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
On Trend firing at composite +0.036, 16 trading days running in Neutral phase. Phase +1 (Global Growth Strong) delivers plus 2.81 percent fwd60d / plus 0.49 pp above plus 2.32 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Global Growth Weak) delivers plus 1.00 percent / minus 1.32 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.4e-15 strongly significant.
THE GLOBAL-GROWTH MECHANISM
The Baltic Dry Index tracks shipping rates for dry-bulk commodities across major global trade routes. BDI rises with global industrial activity and commodity trade and falls as activity slows. Arabica is sensitive via the commodity-complex demand channel; above-trend global activity supports coffee consumption and speculator flow.
HOW TO POSITION
Macro global-growth overlay for Arabica. Global Growth Strong firings flag bullish regimes where commodity-complex demand supports Arabica over 60-day horizons. Global Growth Weak firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with inflation regime, financial conditions, and Arabica supply signals.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.036 in the On Trend band. Baltic Dry Index year-over-year is running near the 5-year z-score mean through late 2026 consistent with neutral global-growth regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.036 State On Trend, 16 days running in Neutral phase.
- BDI year-over-year near 5-year mean Raw z-score +0.15; Baltic Dry Index year-over-year has run near the 5-year rolling mean through late 2026 consistent with neutral global-growth regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap not independent Daily Spearman IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.4e-15 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.099 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant on 150 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE GROWTH CALL
Composite +0.036, On Trend. Baltic Dry Index year-over-year is running near the 5-year z-score mean through late 2026 consistent with neutral global-growth regime. Signal firing in On Trend bucket for 16 days; signal is between directional regimes.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.084 at p-value 1.4e-15 strongly significant on 36-year sample. Phase +1 delivers plus 0.49 pp above baseline; Phase -1 delivers minus 1.32 pp. 1.81 pp directional spread between extremes with non-monotone Phase 0 bucket (plus 2.48 pp edge).
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.099 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant on 150 samples. Phase 0 (On Trend) sample share is 16 percent with plus 2.48 pp edge; the middle bucket outperforms both extremes making this a non-monotone pattern. BDI captures global dry-bulk shipping specifically, not full commodity-complex demand.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,947 post-warmup trading days (1990 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d mean plus 2.32 percent. Phase +1 (Global Growth Strong) delivers +0.49 pp edge; Phase -1 (Global Growth Weak) delivers -1.32 pp. 1.81 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.084 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Growth Strong | +1 | 38.8% (3467 d) | +2.81% | +0.49pp | 2021-22, 2010-11, 2003-04 | |
| On Trend TODAY | 0 | 16.3% (1456 d) | +4.79% | +2.48pp | 2026 (current) | |
| Global Growth Weak | -1 | 45.0% (4024 d) | +1.00% | -1.32pp | 2015-16, 2008-09, 2001-02 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
25 state transitions from 11/05/2024 to 11/04/2026. Full history (218 total transitions since 12/03/1990) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 11/05/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 13d | +3.65% |
| Defensive | 11/22/2024 | 06/11/2025 | 137d | +0.74% |
| Neutral | 06/12/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 5d | +7.42% |
| Defensive | 06/20/2025 | 07/15/2025 | 17d | +11.06% |
| Neutral | 07/16/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 54d | +7.52% |
| Defensive | 10/01/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 8d | +3.27% |
| Neutral | 10/13/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 13d | +3.99% |
| Expansion | 10/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 2d | +2.29% |
| Neutral | 11/03/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 1d | +1.26% |
| Expansion | 11/04/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 6d | +2.99% |
| Neutral | 11/12/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 8d | +1.28% |
| Expansion | 11/24/2025 | 03/10/2026 | 72d | +2.04% |
| Neutral | 03/11/2026 | 03/12/2026 | 2d | +9.05% |
| Expansion | 03/13/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 1d | +11.29% |
| Neutral | 03/16/2026 | 04/08/2026 | 17d | +8.43% |
| Expansion | 04/09/2026 | 06/15/2026 | 47d | +9.97% |
| Neutral | 06/16/2026 | 06/22/2026 | 4d | +1.86% |
| Expansion | 06/23/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 18d | +3.96% |
| Neutral | 07/20/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 11d | +4.84% |
| Expansion | 08/04/2026 | 08/11/2026 | 6d | +0.13% |
| Neutral | 08/12/2026 | 08/20/2026 | 7d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 08/21/2026 | 09/28/2026 | 26d | ongoing |
| Neutral | 09/29/2026 | 10/01/2026 | 3d | ongoing |
| Expansion | 10/02/2026 | 10/13/2026 | 8d | ongoing |
| Neutral LIVE | 10/14/2026 | current | 16d | ongoing |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day KC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Z-score of Baltic Dry Index year-over-year percent change on a rolling 5-year window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals BDI above the 5-year z-score mean (above-trend global growth); negative composite equals below mean. Target ICE US Coffee C first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why the Baltic Dry Index matters for Arabica
The Baltic Dry Index tracks shipping rates for dry-bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains, soybeans) across major global trade routes. BDI is widely used as a real-time proxy for global growth because shipping rates respond to demand before manufacturing surveys or GDP data confirm the cycle. Arabica is sensitive to this macro backdrop via the commodity-complex demand channel; above-trend global activity supports coffee consumption, speculator flow, and overall commodity-rotation inflows.
How to use this signal today
Macro global-growth overlay for Arabica positioning. Global Growth Strong firings flag bullish regimes where commodity-complex demand supports Arabica over 60-day horizons; Global Growth Weak firings flag bearish regimes. Pair with inflation regime overlays, financial conditions, and fundamental Arabica supply signals for stacked macro-plus-fundamental conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (150 independent 60-day samples) plus 0.099 at p-value 0.23 not independently significant. Phase 0 (On Trend) sample share is 16 percent with plus 2.48 pp edge; the middle bucket outperforms both extremes making this a non-monotone pattern. BDI captures global dry-bulk shipping specifically, not full commodity-complex demand; Arabica is a soft not a dry-bulk and transmission runs through macro channels rather than direct Arabica shipping.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 03:30 AM ET