LRC SPECIALIST · Softs / Demand Flows
Z6532 – [LRC] US Imports Vietnam YoY Demand-Pull Signal
US monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam year-over-year as a demand-pull lens on Robusta forward 60-day returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.854
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
US Census FT900 monthly release drives signal updates with approximately 45-day lag.
Signal state
VN Imports Collapse
90 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
Monthly Census FT900 release
Sample
14-year window
Monthly cadence; 2012 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
The United States imports the bulk of its Robusta from Vietnam under HS 090111. Empirically when US monthly imports of Vietnamese green coffee surge year-over-year, Robusta forward 60-day returns run above trend; when imports collapse, returns run below trend. The signal reads US Census HS 090111 monthly imports from Vietnam, computes year-over-year percent change, z-scores, and tanh-bounds. Daily Spearman IC against LRC forward 60-day returns is plus 0.113 at p-value 4.9e-12 across 3,691 observations, strongly significant. Phase plus 1 firings (VN Imports Surge) deliver plus 1.05 pp above plus 1.73 percent baseline. Phase minus 1 firings (VN Imports Collapse) deliver minus 0.45 pp below baseline. The economic read is demand-pull. US roasters pull Vietnamese stock into rising-price regimes and the imports reading precedes further Robusta strength; the signal is a demand-flow leading indicator for LRC.
LIVE CHART
LRC US Imports Vietnam YoY Demand-Pull Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is US Census HS 090111 monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam year-over-year percent change z-scored tanh-bounded. Positive composite means Vietnamese imports surging YoY with US roaster demand-pull on Robusta active. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE Europe Robusta Coffee first-nearby back-adjusted. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Robusta forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
-0.854 / tanh
STATE
VN Imports Collapse
PHASE
-1.27
PHASE +1 EDGE
+1.05 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
-0.45 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
VN Imports Collapse firing at composite -0.854, 90 trading days running in STRESS phase. Phase +1 (VN Imports Surge) delivers plus 2.77 percent fwd60d / plus 1.05 pp above plus 1.73 percent baseline. Phase -1 (VN Imports Collapse) delivers plus 1.28 percent / minus 0.45 pp below baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.113 at p-value 4.9e-12 strongly significant.
THE DEMAND-PULL MECHANISM
The US imports the bulk of its Robusta from Vietnam under HS 090111. US roasters time their Vietnam pulls to lift into rising-price regimes; empirically VN imports YoY leads Robusta forward 60-day returns. When imports surge, Robusta strength follows; when imports collapse, Robusta weakness follows.
HOW TO POSITION
Demand-flow lens for LRC. VN Imports Surge firings flag demand-pull regimes with Robusta strength following. VN Imports Collapse firings flag demand-softening regimes with Robusta weakness following. Pair with Vietnam soil moisture (supply), CFTC ICE Europe positioning, and global stocks.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.854 in the VN Imports Collapse band. US monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam have run significantly below prior year through 2026 and Robusta forward 60-day returns historically run below baseline in this regime.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.854 State VN Imports Collapse, 90 days running in STRESS phase.
- US-Vietnam green coffee imports collapsing YoY US Census FT900 monthly HS 090111 imports from Vietnam have fallen materially vs prior year through 2026; raw z deep in Phase -1 territory.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap honest caveat Daily Spearman IC plus 0.113 at p-value 4.9e-12 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.075 at p-value 0.56 sign-consistent but not independently significant on 62 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE DEMAND CALL
Composite -0.854, VN Imports Collapse. US monthly green coffee imports from Vietnam have run significantly below prior year through 2026. Signal firing in VN Imports Collapse bucket for 90 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase -1 historically runs minus 0.45 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.113 at p-value 4.9e-12 strongly significant. Phase +1 (VN Imports Surge) delivers plus 1.05 pp above baseline; Phase -1 (VN Imports Collapse) delivers minus 0.45 pp. 1.49 pp directional spread on a 14-year sample with monthly update cadence.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.075 at p-value 0.56 not independently significant on 62 samples. The signal is a short-sample demand-flow proxy with 45-day FT900 publication lag. Pair with supply and positioning signals for stacked conviction rather than standalone trigger.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 3,691 post-warmup trading days (2012 onward). Baseline Robusta fwd60d mean plus 1.73 percent median minus 0.64 percent. Phase +1 (VN Imports Surge) delivers +1.05 pp edge; Phase -1 (VN Imports Collapse) delivers -0.45 pp. 1.49 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.113 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VN Imports Surge | +1 | 29.6% (1092 d) | +2.77% | +1.05pp | 2021, 2016, 2014 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 25.1% (926 d) | +1.30% | -0.43pp | various | |
| VN Imports Collapse TODAY | -1 | 45.3% (1673 d) | +1.28% | -0.45pp | 2026 (current), 2019, 2015 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 14-year sample
What this measures
Year-over-year percent change in US Census HS 090111 monthly import value from Vietnam, z-scored on a rolling window, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals VN imports surging (US roaster demand-pull on Robusta); negative composite equals VN imports collapsing (US roaster demand softening). Target ICE Europe Robusta Coffee first-nearby continuous close.
Why it matters
Why US-Vietnam imports lead Robusta
The US imports the bulk of its Robusta from Vietnam under HS 090111. US roasters time their Vietnam pulls to coincide with or lead rising-price regimes; empirically VN imports YoY leads Robusta forward 60-day returns with daily Spearman IC plus 0.113 at p-value 4.9e-12. The economic read is demand-pull. When US roasters are actively building Vietnam stock, that demand pressure precedes further Robusta strength; when they pull back, Robusta weakness follows.
How to use this signal today
Demand-flow lens for LRC. VN Imports Surge firings flag demand-pull regimes with Robusta strength following; VN Imports Collapse firings flag demand-softening regimes with Robusta weakness following. Pair with the Vietnam Highlands soil moisture stress signal (direct Robusta supply), ICE Europe COT Robusta managed-money positioning, and global Robusta stocks for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test (62 independent 60-day samples) plus 0.075 at p-value 0.56 not independently significant. 1.49 pp directional spread on a 14-year sample with monthly update cadence and 45-day FT900 publication lag. Signal is a short-sample demand-flow proxy, not a standalone trigger; pair with supply and positioning signals.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 09:30 PM ET