KC SPECIALIST · Softs / Brazil Realized Price
Z85704 – [KC] Cecafe Brazil Arabica Realized $/bag YoY
Brazil Arabica realized export price year-over-year, as a transaction-derived gauge of physical tightness.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Current reading
-0.722
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR JUN
Brazilian frost window closed
Signal state
Brazil Loose
192 days in Stress phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
Monthly Cecafe release
Sample
36-year window
Monthly cadence; Cecafe data 2016 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW JUNE 2027
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Brazil ships roughly 35 percent of the world Arabica crop and Cecafe publishes the monthly realized export price in dollars per 60-kg bag. When that price rises sharply versus the prior year, the physical market is tightening and bullish Arabica setups follow; when it collapses, the market is loosening and the forward return to Arabica fades. Our data shows EXTREME_POS firings (composite above plus 0.6) have delivered a plus 2.67 percentage-point edge above baseline on forward 60-day Arabica returns across 774 trading days, and the signal’s five positive-extreme episodes include the 2021 Brazilian frost rally (358 trading days in extreme, Arabica plus 30.8 percent forward 60-day at the trigger) and the 2024 to 2025 modern rally (209 trading days, plus 25.8 percent). Full regime stats, extreme-bucket episodes, and methodology below.
LIVE CHART
KC Cecafe Brazil Arabica Realized $/bag YoY
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is Brazil Arabica realized dollar-per-bag year-over-year, z-scored on a 36-month rolling window and tanh-bounded to plus or minus one on the left axis. Positive means Brazilian producers are realizing prices above the 36-month trend (physical tightness, bullish Arabica). The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Coffee C first-nearby in cents per pound. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Arabica forward 60-day returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus or minus 0.2 moderate and plus or minus 0.6 extreme thresholds. Green band fills mark EXTREME_POS firings (historically bullish Arabica); red band fills mark EXTREME_NEG firings (historically bearish Arabica).
COMPOSITE
-0.722 / tanh
STATE
Brazil Loose
PHASE
-0.91
EXTREME EDGE
+2.67 pp (POS)
EXTREME EDGE
-2.78 pp (NEG)
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Brazil Loose firing at composite -0.722, 192 trading days running in the STRESS phase. EXTREME_POS (composite above plus 0.6) delivers plus 6.47 percent fwd60d / plus 2.67 pp above plus 3.80 pct Cecafe-window baseline across 774 days. EXTREME_NEG (composite below minus 0.6) delivers plus 1.02 percent / minus 2.78 pp below baseline across 840 days. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.024 at p = 0.025 (N = 8,947); peak IC lands at 42-day horizon (plus 0.039), fading past 6 months.
THE REALIZED-PRICE MECHANISM
Brazil produces about 35 percent of the world Arabica crop. Cecafe aggregates export invoices and publishes monthly US-dollar revenue and 60-kg bag counts. Realized-price year-over-year reflects what Brazilian producers actually receive; unlike futures, it is not a positioning artifact. A tight physical market shows up as rising realized $/bag before it fully shows up in ICE futures.
HOW TO POSITION
Primary read when the composite is in the extreme bands. EXTREME_POS firings have historically coincided with the start of multi-quarter Arabica rallies (2021 frost, 2024 tight market). EXTREME_NEG firings coincide with Brazil-loose regimes where new supply pressures Arabica. NORMAL readings deliver no directional edge.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.722 in the EXTREME_NEG band. Cecafe realized Arabica dollar-per-bag year-over-year has collapsed versus its 36-month trend. ICE US Coffee C (orange) traded through recent sessions with an episode that began February 2026; current episode has run 192 trading days which meets the BTD danger threshold.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.722 State Brazil Loose, 192 days running; current reading inside the EXTREME_NEG band.
- Cecafe realized Arabica $/bag below 36-month trend Monthly Cecafe table arabica_revenue_usd divided by arabica_bags has run below its 36-month trend. The year-over-year z-score reflects the gap in standard-deviation units.
- Non-overlap test not significant (honest caveat) Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling is plus 0.026 with p = 0.76 across 150 samples; not independently significant. Signal strength is bucket-conditional (extremes), not continuous.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE REALIZED-PRICE CALL
Composite -0.722, Brazil Loose. Cecafe realized Arabica export price has run significantly below its 36-month trend. Signal firing in the EXTREME_NEG bucket for 192 days; forward-60-day edge in that bucket historically runs minus 2.78 pp below baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase stats show the bucket-conditional pattern. EXTREME_POS (8.6 pct of sample) delivers plus 2.67 pp edge; EXTREME_NEG (9.3 pct) delivers minus 2.78 pp edge. The large NORMAL bucket (76.2 pct) delivers no directional edge. Signal is bucket-conditional, not continuous; read extremes, ignore middle.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap test at 60-day sampling is not significant (p = 0.76, N = 150), meaning the daily Spearman IC is driven by overlapping windows. The signal’s economic strength is in the EXTREME buckets, not in continuous prediction. Pair with ICE COT positioning and Vietnam LRC soil-moisture signal for stacked conviction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 2,244 post-warmup trading days with valid Cecafe signal (2017-12-01 onward). Baseline Arabica fwd60d: plus 3.80 percent. Phase +1 (composite above +0.3) delivers +1.79 pp edge; Phase 0 delivers -4.57 pp (narrow transition band); Phase -1 (composite below -0.3) delivers -1.51 pp. Non-overlap IC not significant (every-60d sampling, n = 150).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil Tight | +1 | 48.8% (1094 d) | +5.59% | +1.79pp | Aug 2024, Dec 2019, Oct 2019 | |
| Near Trend | 0 | 4.6% (103 d) | -0.77% | -4.57pp | Jan 2026, Jul 2024, Oct 2022 | |
| Brazil Loose TODAY | -1 | 46.7% (1047 d) | +2.29% | -1.51pp | Feb 2026, Nov 2022, Dec 2017 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
Brazil Arabica realized export price year-over-year, z-scored on a 36-month rolling window, as a transaction-derived gauge of physical tightness. Realized price equals Cecafe monthly arabica revenue in US dollars divided by arabica bags shipped, measured against the same month a year earlier. Rising z means the physical market is tightening; collapsing z means the market is loosening.
Why it matters
Why Brazil realized $/bag reads Arabica tightness
Brazil produces roughly 35 percent of the world Arabica crop. Cecafe aggregates monthly export invoices and publishes revenue in US dollars and bag counts shipped. The ratio equals what Brazilian producers actually receive at the dock, averaged across all buyers that month. Unlike ICE futures positioning, this is a transaction-derived measure of physical tightness. When the realized price rises sharply year-over-year, the physical market is willing to pay up for Brazilian coffee; when it collapses, supply is pressing bids.
How to use this signal today
Bucket-conditional read on Arabica. EXTREME_POS (composite above plus 0.6) has historically coincided with multi-quarter Arabica rallies (2021 frost, 2024 to 2025 modern rally). EXTREME_NEG has coincided with Brazil-loose regimes but with mixed forward-return signal. NORMAL (76 pct of sample) delivers no directional edge. Pair with ICE Europe COT managed-money positioning, LRC Vietnam highlands soil-moisture (sibling Robusta signal), and USDA FAS Brazil coffee attache reports for stacked conviction.
Risk overlay
Validation rests on bucket-conditional forward returns across 9,007 post-warmup daily observations. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.024 (p = 0.025) is weak and the non-overlap test at 60-day sampling is not significant (p = 0.76). The signal is not useful as a continuous predictor; it is useful inside the extreme bands only. Primary risk is that the EXTREME_NEG bucket delivers mixed forward returns across history (-2.78 pp aggregate edge but 3 of 4 named episodes posted positive fwd60d at trigger). Do not size on moderate readings.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 03:00 PM ET