GC · Metals / Cross-Mechanism Voting Composite
Z11185 – GC Gold Conviction Composite
Constituent gold signals vote bull or bear each day; the net-score composite captures cross-mechanism conviction and delivers a plus-2 to minus-1 percentage-point state-conditional edge on forward 60-day gold returns.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
-0.298
Cross-mechanism voting net score, bull minus bear, tanh-bounded
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal state
Mild Bear Conviction
4 trading days in current state
Phase
STRESS
Positive equals bull conviction; negative equals bear conviction
Sample
36 years
Daily voting composite since November 1990
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Individual gold signals can disagree. A credit-stress signal may read bullish while a positioning signal reads bearish; a central-bank buying signal may fire alongside a real-rate signal that fires the opposite direction. This conviction composite aggregates the votes from a basket of constituent signals and computes a daily net score (percent bullish minus percent bearish). The net score maps to a five-state conviction model from strong bull through contested to strong bear. On April 13 2022 the composite reached a Strong Bear reading minus 0.96 as constituent signals aligned bearish into Fed tightening; gold fell 10.2 percent over the next 60 trading days. On December 13 2023 the composite reached Mild Bull plus 0.88 as rate-cut expectations built; gold rallied 6.0 percent. Today the composite reads -0.298, in Mild Bear Conviction territory.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of cross-mechanism gold-framework agreement, plotted alongside COMEX gold.
The dark line in the top panel is the composite, bounded between minus one and plus one. The pale red band at the top marks bull-conviction regime where constituent signals net bullish. The pale green band at the bottom marks bear conviction. The bronze line in the middle panel is the trailing 252-day rolling Spearman IC. The lower panel is COMEX GC continuous back-adjusted price on the right axis in dollars per ounce.
COMPOSITE
-0.153 / tanh
STATE
Contested
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+3.02% (baseline +2.32%)
SAMPLE N
9,015 days
TODAY'S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Mild Bear Conviction
STATE AND PERCENTILE
Mild Bear Conviction, 4 trading days running since . The composite at -0.298 is at the percentile of thirty-six years of history.
WHAT THE VOTING FRAMEWORKS ARE DOING
of the thirteen voting frameworks the composite reads each day, the net bullish-minus-bearish breakdown drives the reading. A reading above plus 0.60 means essentially every framework agrees bullish; a reading below minus 0.60 means essentially every framework agrees bearish. Today's reading at -0.298 tells you the voting stack is .
POSTURE FOR THE WEEKS AHEAD
historical pattern is directionally monotone across the five phases with a plus 2.08 pp spread between strong-bull and strong-bear. The signal is strategic, not tactical. Peak information coefficient at sixty days (plus 0.160, highly significant).
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
Today the composite reads -0.298, placing the dot inside the Mild Bear Conviction band. The composite updates daily from constituent signal votes; watch for sustained moves through the plus or minus 15 threshold as regime-transition markers.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Constituent signal votes Daily bull or bear vote from each signal in the basket.
- Net score (bull minus bear) Percentage bullish minus percentage bearish; the atomic conviction measure.
- Market phase direction Direction of the current state run from the engine Market_Phase_Int column.
THE REGIME MAP
The five regime phases, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the five phases computed from 9,015 trading days (1990-11-30 through 2026-10-23) with COMEX gold forward-sixty-day returns conditional on each phase. Baseline COMEX gold forward-sixty-day return (unconditional): plus 0.79 percent across 8,955 observable windows. The directional spread between strong-bull and strong-bear phases is plus 2.08 percentage points. The pattern is monotone across the five phases.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull conviction | +1 | 40.0% (3606 d) | +1.34% | +0.55pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Contested | 0 | 24.6% (2223 d) | +1.34% | +0.55pp | Oct 2026, Oct 2026, Oct 2026 | |
| Bear conviction TODAY | -1 | 35.4% (3194 d) | -0.22% | -1.00pp | Oct 2026, Jul 2026, Jun 2026 |
The historical pattern
Why it matters
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d COMEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/23/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 6d | +4.92% |
| Contested | 10/31/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 1d | +6.40% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 11/01/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 7d | +5.39% |
| Contested | 11/12/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 7d | +1.41% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 11/21/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 8d | +1.06% |
| Contested | 12/04/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 2d | -4.05% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 12/06/2024 | 12/11/2024 | 4d | -5.25% |
| Contested | 12/12/2024 | 12/26/2024 | 10d | -8.76% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 12/27/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 3d | -4.69% |
| Contested | 01/02/2025 | 01/02/2025 | 1d | -4.05% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/03/2025 | 01/10/2025 | 6d | -4.63% |
| Contested | 01/13/2025 | 01/15/2025 | 3d | -5.64% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/16/2025 | 01/17/2025 | 2d | -8.88% |
| Contested | 01/21/2025 | 01/23/2025 | 3d | -12.83% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 01/24/2025 | 01/27/2025 | 2d | -13.28% |
| Contested | 01/28/2025 | 02/14/2025 | 14d | -9.57% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 02/18/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 1d | -3.91% |
| Contested | 02/19/2025 | 02/19/2025 | 1d | -3.67% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 02/20/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 1d | -2.65% |
| Contested | 02/21/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 6d | -0.85% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/03/2025 | 03/03/2025 | 1d | +0.68% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/04/2025 | 03/06/2025 | 3d | +2.29% |
| Contested | 03/07/2025 | 03/07/2025 | 1d | +3.50% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/10/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 5d | +6.31% |
| Contested | 03/17/2025 | 03/17/2025 | 1d | +6.03% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/18/2025 | 03/18/2025 | 1d | +7.62% |
| Contested | 03/19/2025 | 03/19/2025 | 1d | +5.27% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/20/2025 | 03/24/2025 | 3d | +6.58% |
| Contested | 03/25/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 1d | +3.27% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 03/26/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 4d | +5.55% |
| Contested | 04/01/2025 | 04/02/2025 | 2d | +9.62% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 04/03/2025 | 04/03/2025 | 1d | +15.08% |
| Contested | 04/04/2025 | 04/07/2025 | 2d | +22.79% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 04/08/2025 | 04/08/2025 | 1d | +25.02% |
| Contested | 04/09/2025 | 04/15/2025 | 5d | +13.07% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 04/16/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 1d | +18.35% |
| Contested | 04/17/2025 | 04/17/2025 | 1d | +18.58% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 04/21/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 2d | +22.22% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 04/23/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 1d | +17.43% |
| Contested | 04/24/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 16d | +15.03% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 05/16/2025 | 05/16/2025 | 1d | +8.53% |
| Contested | 05/19/2025 | 06/24/2025 | 25d | +8.42% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 06/25/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 5d | +9.32% |
| Contested | 07/02/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 16d | +6.67% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 07/25/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 4d | +5.37% |
| Contested | 07/31/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 1d | +7.15% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 08/01/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 7d | +10.22% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 08/12/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 7d | +5.43% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 08/21/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 14d | +5.72% |
| Contested | 09/11/2025 | 09/16/2025 | 4d | +4.28% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 09/17/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 10d | +4.55% |
| Contested | 10/01/2025 | 10/01/2025 | 1d | +3.27% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/02/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 5d | +2.78% |
| Contested | 10/09/2025 | 10/13/2025 | 3d | +3.08% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/14/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 13d | +4.81% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 10/31/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 1d | +1.76% |
| Contested | 11/03/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 1d | +1.26% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 11/04/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 1d | +2.99% |
| Contested | 11/05/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 2d | +1.76% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 11/07/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 2d | +0.99% |
| Contested | 11/11/2025 | 11/12/2025 | 2d | +1.60% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 11/13/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 1d | +2.96% |
| Contested | 11/14/2025 | 11/18/2025 | 3d | +1.39% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 11/19/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 1d | +3.57% |
| Contested | 11/20/2025 | 12/01/2025 | 7d | +4.90% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 12/02/2025 | 12/10/2025 | 7d | +0.71% |
| Contested | 12/11/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 1d | -1.86% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 12/12/2025 | 12/26/2025 | 10d | -2.30% |
| Contested | 12/29/2025 | 01/02/2026 | 4d | -6.22% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/05/2026 | 01/07/2026 | 3d | -4.72% |
| Contested | 01/08/2026 | 01/08/2026 | 1d | -4.39% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/09/2026 | 01/09/2026 | 1d | -2.60% |
| Contested | 01/12/2026 | 01/16/2026 | 5d | -2.19% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/20/2026 | 01/22/2026 | 3d | +3.55% |
| Contested | 01/23/2026 | 01/27/2026 | 3d | +2.15% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 01/28/2026 | 01/28/2026 | 1d | +2.66% |
| Contested | 01/29/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 2d | +3.04% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 02/02/2026 | 02/05/2026 | 4d | +2.33% |
| Contested | 02/06/2026 | 02/09/2026 | 2d | +4.80% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 02/10/2026 | 02/10/2026 | 1d | +5.70% |
| Contested | 02/11/2026 | 02/19/2026 | 6d | +6.60% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 02/20/2026 | 02/20/2026 | 1d | +7.14% |
| Contested | 02/23/2026 | 02/24/2026 | 2d | +7.52% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 02/25/2026 | 02/27/2026 | 3d | +7.15% |
| Contested | 03/02/2026 | 03/02/2026 | 1d | +9.34% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 03/03/2026 | 03/04/2026 | 2d | +10.92% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 03/05/2026 | 03/17/2026 | 9d | +11.34% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 03/18/2026 | 03/18/2026 | 1d | +12.14% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 03/19/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 1d | +14.40% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 03/20/2026 | 03/31/2026 | 8d | +15.69% |
| Contested | 04/01/2026 | 04/01/2026 | 1d | +13.09% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 04/02/2026 | 04/02/2026 | 1d | +13.87% |
| Contested | 04/06/2026 | 04/06/2026 | 1d | +13.18% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 04/07/2026 | 04/07/2026 | 1d | +12.98% |
| Contested | 04/08/2026 | 04/09/2026 | 2d | +11.13% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 04/10/2026 | 04/14/2026 | 3d | +9.70% |
| Contested | 04/15/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 13d | +7.03% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 05/04/2026 | 05/12/2026 | 7d | +3.30% |
| Contested | 05/13/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 1d | +4.14% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 05/14/2026 | 05/20/2026 | 5d | +2.99% |
| Contested | 05/21/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 2d | +3.33% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 05/26/2026 | 06/10/2026 | 12d | +1.60% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 06/11/2026 | 06/11/2026 | 1d | +3.82% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 06/12/2026 | 06/22/2026 | 6d | +2.78% |
| Contested | 06/23/2026 | 06/23/2026 | 1d | +3.96% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 06/24/2026 | 06/30/2026 | 5d | +3.88% |
| Contested | 07/01/2026 | 07/01/2026 | 1d | +3.43% |
| Strong Bear Conviction | 07/02/2026 | 07/02/2026 | 1d | +2.80% |
| Contested | 07/06/2026 | 07/14/2026 | 7d | +1.72% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 07/15/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 3d | +2.53% |
| Contested | 07/20/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 4d | +4.84% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 07/24/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 1d | +3.73% |
| Contested | 07/27/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 2d | +4.05% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 07/29/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 2d | +4.73% |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 07/31/2026 | 08/25/2026 | 18d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 08/26/2026 | 08/27/2026 | 2d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 08/28/2026 | 09/02/2026 | 4d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 09/03/2026 | 09/08/2026 | 3d | |
| Contested | 09/09/2026 | 09/11/2026 | 3d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 09/14/2026 | 09/14/2026 | 1d | |
| Contested | 09/15/2026 | 09/17/2026 | 3d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 09/18/2026 | 09/22/2026 | 3d | |
| Contested | 09/23/2026 | 09/30/2026 | 6d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/01/2026 | 10/06/2026 | 4d | |
| Contested | 10/07/2026 | 10/07/2026 | 1d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/08/2026 | 10/08/2026 | 1d | |
| Contested | 10/09/2026 | 10/09/2026 | 1d | |
| Strong Bull Conviction | 10/12/2026 | 10/12/2026 | 1d | |
| Contested | 10/13/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 9d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day COMEX is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Cross-mechanism voting across constituent gold signals. Each day the engine aggregates bull and bear votes from a basket of gold signals and computes a net score (percentage bullish minus percentage bearish). The net score maps to a five-state conviction model: strong bull (>= 40), mild bull (>= 15), contested (abs < 15), mild bear (<= -15), strong bear (<= -40). Signal fires when conviction is non-contested.
Why it matters
When constituent gold signals align bull or bear, the cross-mechanism agreement is stronger than any single signal. Strong-bull and strong-bear readings have historically carried larger forward-return edges than individual constituent signals.
Use the conviction composite as a filter: engage constituent-signal readings when the conviction composite agrees, stand aside when the composite is contested. The contested state has historically carried the weakest forward-return edge.
The 2000-09 case demonstrates that even cross-mechanism agreement can be overridden by dominant macro drivers. The signal is a conviction filter, not a certainty certificate.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 05, 2026 11:02 PM ET