WHEAT SPECIALIST · Grain / Crop Condition
Z4291 – [KW] NASS Winter Wheat Good/Excellent Rating (Inverted)
Falling Good/Excellent crop ratings flag winter-wheat crop stress and tighten the HRW balance; KC wheat tracks the US winter crop directly.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR APR
Current reading
+0.038
On the plus-or-minus one scale; sign-inverted NASS G/E rating z-score.
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR APR
Dormant Aug-Mar
Signal state
Normal
Current state across the Strong Crop / Normal / Crop Stress regime.
Phase duration
72 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
25 years
Weekly NASS Crop Progress Good/Excellent rating, 2000 onward.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW APRIL 2027 GROWING SEASON
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
USDA NASS publishes weekly crop condition ratings during the US winter wheat growing season, classifying each state’s crop into five buckets — Very Poor, Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent — based on field observer reports. The combined Good-plus-Excellent percentage is the standard measure of overall crop health; a falling G/E rating flags physiological stress from drought, heat, disease, or winterkill.
This signal reads the NASS G/E rating for US winter wheat, computes a rolling z-score, and sign-INVERTS so a FALLING G/E reading maps to a POSITIVE composite (bullish KC HRW wheat on supply tightening). The historical per-regime pattern is modestly directional — Crop Stress firings precede forward returns above baseline, Strong Crop runs below. Weekly release cadence during the Apr-Oct active window.
LIVE CHART
Twenty-five years of the sign-inverted NASS winter wheat Good/Excellent condition rating against KC HRW wheat forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the sign-inverted NASS Good/Excellent condition composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means falling crop ratings (bullish wheat on supply tightening), negative means strong crop (bearish). The bronze line in the middle panel is the KC HRW wheat front-month in cents per bushel. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and wheat 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
+0.038 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
+0.04
SAMPLE N
6,600+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite +0.038, state Normal, 72 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE CROP CONDITION MECHANISM
USDA NASS field observers rate every reporting state’s winter wheat crop each week during the growing season, assigning five buckets from Very Poor to Excellent. The combined G/E percentage is a direct physiological read on crop health — not a weather or satellite inference. Falling G/E flags crop stress in-progress, which the market prices as supply tightening.
HOW TO POSITION
Direct crop-health read that complements the USDM drought (upstream driver) and NASS Harvest Pace (downstream outcome) signals in the US HRW crop-cycle stack. When Crop Stress fires alongside HRW Drought Firing and slow Harvest Pace, the bullish HRW wheat thesis has its strongest confluence.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.038. Signal state is Normal, 72 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.038 State Normal, 72 trading days running in the current phase.
- NASS Winter Wheat Good/Excellent rating (sign-inverted) Weekly USDA NASS Crop Progress G/E percentage for US winter wheat, state-weighted, rolling z-score, sign-inverted.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CROP CONDITION CALL
Composite +0.038, state Normal, 72 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Per-state forward returns show a directional pattern in the regime table consistent with the sign-inversion thesis — Crop Stress firings precede forward returns above baseline, Strong Crop runs below. Edge concentrates in the April-August active window.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
NASS G/E ratings publish weekly only during the growing season; off-season composite is forward-filled from last publication, so winter composite values reflect late-season rather than current conditions. Observer-rating methodology means sub-state readings can vary from aggregate direction.
THE REGIME MAP
The three NASS condition regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on KC HRW Wheat forward returns. Edge concentrates in the Apr-Aug active window.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crop Stress | +1 | 7.5% (496 d) | -0.26% | +0.06pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 77.1% (5107 d) | -0.13% | +0.19pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2025, Jun 2025 | |
| Strong Crop | -1 | 15.4% (1019 d) | -1.31% | -0.98pp | Apr 2026, Apr 2025, Nov 2024 |
The historical pattern
The signal across twenty-five years of NASS condition cycles
What this measures
Falling USDA NASS Good/Excellent crop condition ratings flag winter-wheat crop stress from drought, heat, disease, or winterkill, which tightens the KC HRW balance. The composite reads the weekly NASS G/E rating for US winter wheat, rolling z-scored, sign-inverted so a falling G/E maps to a positive composite (bullish), tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why NASS G/E rating reads HRW wheat supply
USDA NASS Crop Progress is the authoritative weekly US crop condition report, published every Monday during the growing season. State-level field observers rate crop condition in five buckets from Very Poor to Excellent. The combined Good-plus-Excellent percentage is the single most-tracked US crop-health metric, and a falling G/E reading transmits directly to final-yield expectations and futures pricing.
Why the sign-inversion
Raw NASS G/E rating is a crop-health measure — higher G/E equals stronger crop, which is BEARISH wheat. The signal sign-inverts so FALLING G/E reads as a POSITIVE composite (bullish wheat), consistent with the convention used across the stress-firing signals (USDM Drought, Novorossiysk Cargo Pace, Russia Production YoY). The inversion makes the signal directly stackable where positive equals bullish wheat.
How to use this signal today
Direct crop-health read that pairs with the USDM Drought composite (upstream weather driver) and the NASS Winter Wheat Harvest Pace signal (downstream outcome). When Crop Stress fires alongside HRW Drought Firing, the physiological-confirmation cross-check is in place; when Harvest Pace also runs slow, the final-yield reduction has been confirmed by late-season field data.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 08:38 PM ET