WHEAT SPECIALIST · Grain / Supply Balance
Z4406 – [W] US Wheat Ending Stocks YoY (Inverted)
Shrinking US wheat ending stocks force buyers to compete for scarce physical inventory; expanding stocks let supply outrun demand and soften futures.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current reading
+0.958
On the plus-or-minus one scale; sign-inverted US wheat ending stocks YoY.
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Signal live year-round on monthly PSD cadence.
Signal state
Extreme POS
Current state across the Tight Stocks / Normal / Loose Stocks regime.
Phase duration
301 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
36 years
Monthly USDA FAS PSD US wheat ending stocks, 1990 onward.
As of Nov 03, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
US wheat ending stocks are the cleanest fundamental read on domestic supply-demand balance. When ending stocks contract year-over-year, buyers compete for scarce physical inventory and futures firm. When they expand, supply outruns demand, inventories build, and futures soften.
This signal reads the USDA FAS PSD aggregate US wheat ending stocks, computes the 12-month YoY percent change, 2-year z-scores, and sign-inverts so tightening reads POSITIVE (bullish). The historical directional spread is cleanly monotone — tight-stocks regime delivers forward returns above baseline; loose-stocks regime delivers well below. Monthly release cadence with roughly a 10-day publication lag.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-six years of the sign-inverted US wheat ending-stocks YoY composite against CBOT SRW wheat forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the sign-inverted US wheat ending-stocks YoY composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means tightening stocks (bullish), negative means loosening stocks (bearish). The bronze line in the middle panel is the CBOT SRW wheat front-month in cents per bushel. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and wheat 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
+0.958 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+1.92
SAMPLE N
9,000+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite +0.958, state Extreme POS, 301 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE BALANCE MECHANISM
When US wheat ending stocks contract year-over-year, domestic balance tightens — supply runs short of demand, buyers compete for scarce physical inventory, and futures firm. When they expand, supply outruns demand, inventories build, and futures soften. The signal sign-inverts raw YoY so tight reads positive (bullish).
HOW TO POSITION
Primary domestic supply-balance read. Pair with the Russia Wheat Production YoY, Novorossiysk Cargo Pace, and Ukraine GPR signals for a full world-wheat supply picture. When the US tight-stocks regime aligns with Black Sea supply stress, the bullish wheat thesis has its strongest confluence.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.958. Signal state is Extreme POS, 301 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.958 State Extreme POS, 301 trading days running in the current phase.
- USDA FAS PSD US wheat ending stocks YoY Monthly estimate in million bushels, 2-year rolling z-score, sign-inverted.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE STOCKS CALL
Composite +0.958, state Extreme POS, 301 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Per-state forward returns show a cleanly monotone pattern in the regime table — Tight Stocks is the bullish extreme, Loose Stocks is the bearish extreme, Normal sits near baseline. One of the widest directional spreads in the wheat library.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Monthly release cadence means slow signal updates with roughly a 10-day publication lag; a mid-month PSD can move the composite abruptly. Use as a fundamental overlay, not a day-trade.
THE REGIME MAP
The three US wheat stocks regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on CBOT SRW Wheat forward returns. Monotone directional structure consistent with the sign-inversion thesis.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight Stocks TODAY | +1 | 51.2% (4632 d) | +0.62% | +1.23pp | Aug 2025, Nov 2016, Feb 2010 | |
| Normal | 0 | 12.5% (1132 d) | -0.53% | +0.08pp | Apr 2025, Jun 2022, Aug 2016 | |
| Loose Stocks | -1 | 36.3% (3282 d) | -2.34% | -1.74pp | Aug 2022, Oct 2013, Oct 2007 |
The historical pattern
The signal across thirty-six years of US wheat stocks
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d Wheat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 10/23/2024 | 04/11/2025 | 118d | +4.92% |
| Neutral | 04/14/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 90d | +15.67% |
| Positive | 08/22/2025 | 10/23/2026 | 295d | +3.16% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day Wheat is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Shrinking US wheat ending stocks force buyers to compete for scarce physical inventory and lift futures; expanding stocks let supply outrun demand and soften futures. The composite reads USDA FAS PSD monthly US wheat ending stocks, computes the 12-month YoY percent change, 2-year z-scores, sign-inverts so tight reads positive, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why US ending stocks read domestic wheat balance
USDA FAS publishes the Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) tables monthly as the cleanest aggregated reading of US wheat supply and demand. Ending stocks equal beginning stocks plus production plus imports minus total use minus exports. When ending stocks contract year-over-year, domestic balance tightens; when they expand, balance loosens. The YoY trend captures the pace of balance change, which is what forward prices actually track.
Why the sign-inversion
Raw ending-stocks YoY is a volume measure — more stocks equals more supply, which is BEARISH wheat. The signal sign-inverts so SHRINKING STOCKS reads as a POSITIVE composite (bullish wheat), consistent with the convention used across the Black Sea supply triad (Russia Production YoY, Novorossiysk Cargo Pace). The inversion makes the signal directly stackable in a composite view where "positive = bullish wheat."
How to use this signal today
Primary domestic supply-balance read. Pair with the Russia Wheat Production YoY (alternative supply), Novorossiysk Cargo Pace (realized Black Sea export flow), and Ukraine GPR (risk-perception overlay). When US tight-stocks firing aligns with Black Sea supply stress, the bullish wheat thesis has its strongest confluence; when US loose-stocks firing aligns with a Russia bumper harvest, the bearish thesis is strongest.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 04:27 PM ET