· Analytic
Z4727 LC Heavy-Class Placements Signal
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed heavy-class (>900 lbs) placements year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years — the Grade B+ near-term supply signal on CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.985
High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG firing
Signal state
Extreme NEG
phase -1, heavy placements above 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly USDA NASS, 36-year span
Cattle on Feed >900 lbs placements YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.132 (p < 1e-36)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, strongly significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
Low Heavy fwd60d
+2.27% mean
+1.25 pp above baseline, 65% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed reports break placements into weight classes. Heavy-class placements (over 900 pounds) enter the finishing pipeline closer to slaughter weight — they finish in 3 to 4 months versus 5 to 6 months for lighter placements. Reading heavy-class placements year-over-year gives a near-term supply signal at a shorter lead than general placements. This signal reads NASS Cattle on Feed heavy-class placements YoY, SIGN-FLIPS so low heavy placements read positive composite (tight near-term supply = bullish-LC), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release. Low Heavy Placements (positive composite) means fewer heavy cattle are entering feedlots than year-ago. In 3-4 months, near-term slaughter supply will be tighter. Historically BULLISH LC forward. High Heavy Placements (negative composite) means more heavy cattle are entering feedlots. In 3-4 months, slaughter supply will be plentiful. Historically BEARISH LC forward. The memorable finding: Grade B+ directional signal. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.132 at p-value < 1e-36 across 9,049 observations -- strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.22 across 150 independent samples -- not significant. Phase +1 (Low Heavy) delivers +2.27% fwd60d (+1.25 pp edge, hit 65%). Phase -1 (High Heavy) delivers +0.03% fwd60d (-0.99 pp edge, hit 51%). Phase 0 delivers +0.79%. 2.2+ pp directional spread. Current reading: High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG firing at composite -0.985. Heavy-class placements are running well above year-ago -- near-term supply pipeline loaded. Historical Phase -1 delivers below baseline. Read on for the current reading, the 2016 and 2008 anchors, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Heavy-Class Placements Signal
Composite reads -0.985 as of October 30, 2026, deeply in the High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG band. NASS COF heavy-class placements are well above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
-0.985 / tanh
STATE
High Heavy Placements
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+0.03% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG firing, 45 days running. Phase -1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.03%, hit 51%, -0.99 pp below baseline. Phase +1 (Low Heavy) delivers +2.27% / 65% hit / +1.25 pp above baseline.
THE NEAR-TERM SUPPLY MECHANISM
Heavy-class placements (>900 lbs) enter feedlots near finish weight = finish in 3-4 months. High heavy placements = plentiful 3-4 month supply = bearish-LC. Low heavy placements = tight near-term supply = bullish-LC.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, placements YoY (all-weight, 4-6mo lead), marketings signal (finishing-end flow), cattle inventory. Heavy-class is the near-term (3-4mo) supply slot distinct from all-weight placements.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.985 deeply in the High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG band. The blue signal line is saturated below -0.9 as NASS COF heavy-class placements run well above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.985 State High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG firing, 45 days running.
- NASS COF heavy-class placements elevated Monthly heavy-class (>900 lbs) placements are running well above the 2-year baseline as the industry loads the near-term pipeline.
- State-conditional edge: -0.99 pp mean High Heavy Placements historical fwd60d LC mean +0.03%, baseline +1.02%, hit 51%. Current firing deeply in EXTREME NEG sub-band — meaningful near-term headwind.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE HEAVY-CLASS CALL
Composite -0.985, High Heavy Placements EXTREME NEG firing. NASS COF heavy-class placements are running well above the 2-year baseline — near-term supply pipeline loaded.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
High Heavy Placements historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.03% (-0.99 pp vs baseline, hit 51%). Current firing is deeply in EXTREME NEG sub-band — meaningful headwind read.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.132 strongly significant. Non-overlap independence test at p=0.22 not significant. Grade B+ directional. Monthly cadence slows signal updates. Readings can be revised in subsequent monthly reports.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Grade B+ directional near-term supply signal.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Heavy Placements | +1 | 28.4% (2569 d) | +1.82% | +0.80pp | May 2026, Mar 2026, Aug 2025 | |
| Normal | 0 | 47.4% (4286 d) | +1.39% | +0.37pp | Dec 2025, Jul 2025, Apr 2025 | |
| High Heavy Placements TODAY | -1 | 24.2% (2194 d) | +1.72% | +0.70pp | Oct 2026, Apr 2026, Jan 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS Cattle on Feed heavy-class (>900 lbs) placements series, computes year-over-year percent change, sign-flips so low heavy placements reads positive, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release.
Why it matters
Why heavy-class placements reads near-term supply
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed reports break placements into weight classes: lightweights (<700 lbs), middleweights (700-900 lbs), and heavy class (>900 lbs). Heavy-class placements enter feedlots near finish weight — they require only 3-4 months to reach slaughter weight versus 5-6 months for lighter placements. Reading heavy-class year-over-year gives a near-term supply signal at a shorter lead than general all-weight placements.
Why Grade B+ with strong daily IC
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.132 at p-value < 1e-36 across 9,049 observations -- strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.22 -- not significant. Phase +1 (Low Heavy) delivers +1.25 pp above baseline, Phase -1 (High Heavy) delivers -0.99 pp below baseline. Clean 2.2 pp directional spread. Grade B+ near-term supply signal.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread, all-weight placements YoY signal (4-6 month supply lead), marketings signal (finishing-end flow), cattle inventory (structural supply). Heavy-class is the near-term (3-4 month) supply slot — a shorter lead than the all-weight placements signal.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 12:47 PM ET