· Analytic
Z4726 LC Marketings Signal
USDA NASS cattle marketings year-over-year inverted and z-scored on two years — the Grade A pipeline-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.782
Slow Marketings EXTREME POS firing
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, marketings pace below 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly USDA NASS, 36-year span
Cattle marketings YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
-0.112 (p < 1e-26)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d; non-overlap p=0.002 also significant
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
Fast Marketings fwd60d
+2.56% mean
+1.54 pp above baseline, 67% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS tracks monthly cattle MARKETINGS — the count of cattle leaving feedlots for slaughter in the prior month. Marketings capture the finishing-end flow of the cattle supply pipeline. Placements measure cattle entering feedlots; marketings measure cattle leaving. The marketings YoY change tells you how fast the pipeline is clearing relative to a year ago. This signal reads NASS marketings YoY, SIGN-FLIPS so slow marketings read positive composite (engine thesis: slow marketings = supply tightening), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release. But here is the memorable finding: the empirical pattern INVERTS the engine thesis. Slow Marketings (positive composite) historically delivers BEARISH LC forward — pipeline backup signals demand softening ahead of supply resolution. Fast Marketings (negative composite) historically delivers BULLISH LC forward — active pipeline flow coincides with firm demand pull. The engine convention and empirical reality disagree; the empirical dominates. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is minus 0.112 at p-value less than 1e-26 across 9,049 trading days. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is minus 0.249 at p-value 0.002 across 150 independent samples — INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Slow Marketings) delivers +0.19% fwd60d (-0.83 pp edge below baseline, hit 53%). Phase -1 (Fast Marketings) delivers +2.56% fwd60d (+1.54 pp edge above baseline, hit 67%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers +0.69%. 2.4+ pp directional spread. Grade A pipeline-flow signal. Current reading: Slow Marketings EXTREME POS firing at composite +0.782. Pipeline flow is below the 2-year baseline — empirically bearish forward LC. Read on for the anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Marketings Signal
Composite reads +0.782 as of October 30, 2026, in the Slow Marketings EXTREME POS band. Monthly cattle marketings are below the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.782 / tanh
STATE
Slow Marketings
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+0.19% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Slow Marketings EXTREME POS firing, 50 days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.19%, hit 53%, -0.83 pp below baseline. Phase -1 (Fast Marketings) delivers +2.56% / 67% hit / +1.54 pp above baseline.
THE PIPELINE-FLOW MECHANISM
Slow marketings = pipeline backup = demand softening pressure forward = bearish LC. Fast marketings = active pipeline flow + firm demand pull = bullish LC. Marketings measures cattle LEAVING feedlots (distinct from placements which measure cattle ENTERING).
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, placements signal, slaughter YoY, cattle inventory. Marketings captures the finishing-end pipeline flow — the complement to the placement-end flow.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.782 in the Slow Marketings EXTREME POS band. The blue signal line has moved above the +0.5 extreme threshold as NASS monthly marketings pace stays below the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.782 State Slow Marketings EXTREME POS firing, 50 days running.
- NASS marketings pace below baseline Monthly cattle marketings are running below the 2-year baseline — pipeline backup forming at the finishing end.
- State-conditional edge: -0.83 pp mean Slow Marketings historical fwd60d LC mean +0.19%, baseline +1.02%, hit 53%. Current firing in EXTREME POS sub-band — modest headwind read.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE MARKETINGS CALL
Composite +0.782, Slow Marketings EXTREME POS firing. NASS monthly cattle marketings are running below the 2-year baseline — pipeline backup forming.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Slow Marketings historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +0.19% (-0.83 pp vs baseline, hit 53%). Current firing is in EXTREME POS sub-band — modest headwind read.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC -0.112 and non-overlap -0.249 at p=0.002 both significant — Grade A. But empirical polarity INVERTS the engine composite_direction thesis; the empirical dominates. Monthly cadence.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Grade A directional signal with empirical pattern inverting engine thesis.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow Marketings TODAY | +1 | 30.3% (2741 d) | +0.88% | -0.14pp | Sep 2026, Jul 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 44.0% (3986 d) | +1.35% | +0.32pp | Aug 2026, Jun 2026, Apr 2025 | |
| Fast Marketings | -1 | 25.7% (2322 d) | +1.48% | +0.45pp | Dec 2025, Mar 2025, Jan 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS monthly cattle marketings (cattle leaving feedlots for slaughter), computes year-over-year percent change, sign-flips so slow marketings reads positive composite, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release.
Why it matters
Why marketings YoY reads pipeline-flow dynamics
USDA NASS tracks monthly cattle MARKETINGS — the count of cattle leaving feedlots for slaughter in the prior month. Marketings capture the finishing-end flow of the cattle supply pipeline. Placements measure cattle entering feedlots; marketings measure cattle leaving. The year-over-year change tells you how fast the pipeline is clearing relative to a year ago. Slow marketings = pipeline backup. Fast marketings = active flow.
Why Grade A with inverted empirical pattern
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is -0.112 at p-value < 1e-26 across 9,049 observations. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.002 across 150 independent samples -- INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. Phase +1 (Slow Marketings) delivers -0.83 pp below baseline, Phase -1 (Fast Marketings) delivers +1.54 pp above baseline. Clean 2.4 pp directional spread. The empirical polarity inverts the engine composite_direction thesis; the empirical dominates for signal interpretation.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), placements signal (the complementary pipeline entry flow), slaughter YoY (realized volume), cattle inventory (structural supply). Marketings captures the finishing-end pipeline flow — distinct from placements (entry flow) and slaughter YoY (realized volume at slaughter).
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 12:33 PM ET