· Analytic
Z15207 LC Weekly Cattle Slaughter YoY Signal
USDA weekly cattle slaughter year-over-year change, z-scored on two years — the realized supply-flow signal on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
-0.860
Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG firing
Signal state
Moderate NEG
phase -1, weekly slaughter below prior-year baseline
Sample
Weekly USDA AMS, 36-year span
Federally inspected cattle slaughter, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.040 (p = 0.0001)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean, median +1.74%
Low Slaughter fwd60d
+2.35% mean
+1.33 pp above baseline, 64.1% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service publishes weekly cattle slaughter data covering total federally inspected kill, by class (steers, heifers, cows). The year-over-year change in weekly slaughter is the realized supply-flow signal — it tells you what packers actually processed, not what the kill schedule says they planned. High slaughter YoY (positive z-score) means packers are running at above-prior-year kill rates. This can reflect either tight supply forcing accelerated clearance (bullish forward) OR demand pull supporting high throughput (bullish forward). Low slaughter YoY (negative z-score) means packers are running below prior-year rates. This can reflect either kill slowdown on narrow margins (precedes forced cash reset, bullish forward) OR demand destruction cutting through throughput (bearish, in extreme cases). Historically BOTH tails deliver positive forward LC returns above baseline. This signal reads USDA weekly cattle slaughter, computes the year-over-year percent change, z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Weekly USDA release cadence. The memorable twist: Phase +1 (High Slaughter YoY) delivers +2.88% fwd60d (+1.86 pp edge, hit 72.0%). Phase -1 (Low Slaughter YoY) delivers +2.35% fwd60d (+1.33 pp edge, hit 64.1%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers +0.81% fwd60d (-0.21 pp below baseline). Daily IC +0.040 at p=0.0001 is significant daily; non-overlap p=0.77 not significant. Grade B- magnitude overlay with the Phase -1 tail firing currently. Read on for the current Low Slaughter YoY firing, the historical both-tail cases, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Weekly Cattle Slaughter YoY Signal
Composite reads -0.807 as of October 30, 2026, in the Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG band. USDA weekly cattle slaughter is running below the prior-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range. Historical Low Slaughter YoY extremes anchor meaningful forward LC strength in the sample.
COMPOSITE
-0.807 / tanh
STATE
Low Slaughter YoY
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
+2.35% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG firing. Phase -1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.35%, hit 64.1%, +1.33 pp above baseline. Phase +1 (High Slaughter) delivers +2.88% / 72.0% hit / +1.86 pp — both tails positive.
THE SUPPLY-FLOW MECHANISM
Low slaughter YoY = packers running below prior-year rates = kill slowdown or supply tightness. Both pathways tighten the forward cash market. High slaughter YoY = accelerated clearance = can reflect tight supply or firm demand. Both bullish forward.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio (feedlot-margin primary), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), commercial positioning, Korea and Japan exports, cattle-on-feed. Slaughter YoY is the realized-flow confirmation signal.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.807 in the Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG band. The blue signal line has moved below the -0.5 extreme threshold as USDA weekly slaughter dropped below prior-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range. Historical Low Slaughter YoY extremes anchor meaningful forward LC strength.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.807 State Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG firing.
- Weekly slaughter below prior year USDA weekly cattle slaughter is running materially below the prior-year baseline as kill slowdown or supply tightness suppresses throughput.
- State-conditional edge: +1.33 pp mean Low Slaughter YoY historical fwd60d LC mean +2.35%, baseline +1.02%, hit 64.1%. Current firing in EXTREME NEG sub-band — typically stronger signal than Moderate.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SLAUGHTER CALL
Composite -0.807, Low Slaughter YoY EXTREME NEG firing. USDA weekly cattle slaughter is running materially below the prior-year baseline as kill slowdown or supply tightness suppresses throughput.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Low Slaughter YoY historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +2.35% (+1.33 pp vs baseline, hit 64.1%). Current firing is in EXTREME NEG sub-band (below -0.5 threshold) which is typically a stronger signal than Moderate.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC is significant (+0.040, p=0.0001). Non-overlapping independence test p=0.77 (not significant). Both tails deliver positive edge — this is a magnitude-not-direction signal. Grade B-.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean, median plus 1.74 percent. BOTH extreme tails historically precede LC strength; the Normal zone underperforms baseline.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Slaughter YoY | +1 | 7.1% (647 d) | +4.53% | +3.50pp | Sep 2026, Sep 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 88.1% (7976 d) | +4.22% | +3.20pp | Jul 2026, May 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Low Slaughter YoY TODAY | -1 | 4.7% (426 d) | +3.59% | +2.57pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Jul 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA AMS weekly cattle slaughter data covering total federally inspected kill. Computes the year-over-year percent change. Z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window with 60-day minimum sample. Bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Weekly USDA AMS release.
Why it matters
Why slaughter YoY reads realized supply flow
USDA AMS publishes weekly cattle slaughter data covering total federally inspected kill. The year-over-year percent change is the realized supply-flow signal — it tells you what packers actually processed, not what the kill schedule says they planned. Realized flow captures the intersection of packer kill-schedule decisions, feedlot cattle availability, and processing capacity constraints. It is the ground-truth read on how fast cattle are moving through the supply pipeline.
Why Grade B- with magnitude-not-direction
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.040 at p-value 0.0001 across 9,049 observations — significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.77 across 150 independent samples — not significant. BUT the phase-conditional stats are striking: Phase +1 delivers +1.86 pp above baseline, Phase -1 delivers +1.33 pp above baseline, Phase 0 delivers -0.21 pp. BOTH tails positive — magnitude-not-direction signal. Grade B- magnitude overlay (daily IC stronger than other magnitude signals).
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost signal), commercial positioning (hedge regime), Korea and Japan export signals (demand-pull), USDA cattle-on-feed (supply confirmation). Slaughter YoY is the realized-flow confirmation signal — treat as ground-truth read on how supply is actually moving.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 11:52 PM ET