· Analytic
Z4731 LC NASS Carcass Weight YoY Signal
USDA NASS cattle carcass weight year-over-year, z-scored on two years — the direct US supply pipeline pressure read on CME Live Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.764
Heavy Carcass extreme-positive, 30 trading days running
Signal state
Extreme POS
phase +1, NASS carcass weight YoY well above 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly NASS, 36-year span
NASS cattle slaughter carcass weight YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.020 (p = 0.059)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, marginal daily; Phase +1 hit 78%
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean, median +1.74%
Heavy Carcass fwd60d
+3.41% mean
+2.39 pp above baseline, 78.0% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS publishes monthly cattle slaughter data including average carcass weights for federally-inspected cattle. Carcass weight is a direct read on US cattle supply pipeline pressure: when weights run heavy year-over-year, feedlots are holding cattle longer than usual (lighter demand, slower packer pull), and the forward supply overhang pressures LC prices. When weights run light, cattle are being pulled through the feedlot faster (strong packer demand, tight inventory), and forward LC firms. The 60-day forward horizon captures the near-term transmission as the carcass-weight signal translates to cash cattle pricing through packer bidding dynamics. This signal reads NASS cattle carcass weight year-over-year, z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). In October 2016 the signal fired saturated-positive at +0.90 with LC at 94.45 cents per pound through heavy-carcass pipeline pressure that preceded recovery as the inventory worked through; LC rallied 27 percent over the next sixty days as packer demand reset. In August 2014 the signal fired at -0.75 with LC at 162.40 at a cycle high through light carcass weights signaling tight pipeline; LC fell 11 percent over sixty days as the cycle turned. The memorable twist: Grade C+ — Daily IC at p=0.059 (marginal significance, just at threshold). However, Phase +1 (Heavy Carcass) historical hit rate is 78.0 percent, among the highest in the LC overlay stack. The signal rarely fires but is highly directional when it does. Read on for the current 30-day Extreme Positive firing, the 2016 and 2014 anchor cases, and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC NASS Carcass Weight YoY Signal
Composite reads +0.764 as of October 30, 2026, in the Heavy Carcass extreme-positive band, 30 trading days running. USDA NASS cattle carcass weight YoY has run well above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range through this firing. The 2016 October anchor is visible as the deepest earlier Heavy Carcass firing before the +27% recovery.
COMPOSITE
+0.764 / tanh
STATE
Heavy Carcass
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
+3.41% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
8,989 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Heavy Carcass extreme-positive firing, 30 trading days running. Phase +1 historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +3.41%, hit rate 78.0%, +2.39 pp above the +1.02% baseline. The 2016 October analog delivered +27% as the pipeline worked through to recovery.
THE PIPELINE-PRESSURE MECHANISM
Heavy carcass YoY = feedlots holding cattle longer than usual = packer pull is slow. Pipeline overhang → near-term cash pressure but forward (60-day) recovery as inventory works through and packer bidding resets.
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary), the Korea exports signal (demand-pull), the Japan exports signal (demand-pull), cattle-on-feed (near-term supply confirmation). Carcass weight is the direct inventory-pressure read.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.764 in the Heavy Carcass extreme-positive band, 30 trading days running. The blue signal line has moved into saturated-positive territory as USDA NASS carcass weight YoY ran well above the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range. The 2016 October anchor is visible as the deepest earlier Heavy Carcass firing before the +27% recovery.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.764 State Heavy Carcass extreme-positive; 30 trading days running.
- NASS carcass weight YoY elevated USDA NASS cattle carcass weight YoY has run well above the 2-year baseline through 2026 Q3-Q4 as feedlots hold cattle longer in current supply environment.
- State-conditional edge: +2.39 pp mean Heavy Carcass historical fwd60d LC mean +3.41%, baseline +1.02%, hit 78%. 2016 Q4 anchor delivered +27%. Current firing level mirrors 2016 Q4 condition.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CARCASS WEIGHT CALL
Composite +0.764, Heavy Carcass extreme-positive, 30 trading days running. USDA NASS cattle carcass weight YoY has run meaningfully above the 2-year baseline through Q3-Q4 2026 as feedlots hold cattle longer in the current supply environment.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Heavy Carcass historically delivers mean fwd60d LC of +3.41%, +2.39 pp above the +1.02% baseline, hit rate 78.0%. The 2016 October anchor delivered +27% as the pipeline overhang worked through. Current firing at extreme-positive level mirrors 2016 condition.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC is marginal (+0.020, p=0.059). Non-overlapping independence test p=0.89 (not significant). The signal fires rarely but is highly directional when it does — the Phase +1 78% hit rate is strong but the sample is small (592 days). Pair with LC-corn ratio for direction confirmation.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,989 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean, median plus 1.74 percent. Heavy carcass pipeline-pressure historically precedes LC recovery as inventory works through.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Carcass TODAY | +1 | 7.0% (636 d) | +3.46% | +2.44pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Nov 2023 | |
| Normal | 0 | 82.1% (7425 d) | +1.68% | +0.66pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Jul 2026 | |
| Light Carcass | -1 | 10.9% (988 d) | +0.95% | -0.08pp | Aug 2026, Oct 2025, Sep 2025 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS cattle slaughter data (NASS_CATTLE_SLAUGHTER_MONTHLY) for federally-inspected cattle carcass weight, computes year-over-year percent change over 252 trading days, z-scores on a 504-day (two-year) rolling window, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly NASS release.
Why it matters
Why carcass weight reads US supply pipeline pressure
Cattle carcass weight — the dressed weight of federally-inspected slaughtered cattle — is a direct read on how long feedlots are holding cattle. Heavy weights YoY mean feedlots are extending holding time; animals are gaining additional weight through the pipeline. This typically reflects slow packer demand (soft cash cattle market, packer margin compression) or feedlot delay (cheap feed costs enabling longer hold). The pipeline pressure that results pushes near-term supply overhang but historically precedes forward price recovery as the inventory works through and packer bidding resets. Light weights YoY are the mirror: strong packer demand pulling cattle through fast.
Why Grade C+ with 78% hit rate
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.020 at p-value 0.059 across 8,989 observations — MARGINAL, just at the significance threshold. Non-overlapping (every-60d) IC is at p-value 0.89 across 150 independent samples — not significant. The daily IC is weak relative to other LC overlays. However, Phase +1 state-conditional stats are strong: mean fwd60d +3.41 percent at 78.0 percent hit rate, +2.39 pp above baseline. The signal fires rarely (6.6 percent of sample) but when it fires, forward LC direction is highly directional. Grade C+ reflects the marginal daily IC + strong tail behavior.
How to use this signal today
Pair with the LC-corn ratio signal (feedlot-margin primary driver), the Korea exports signal Korea Exports and the Japan exports signal Japan Exports (demand-pull signals), commercial positioning (hedge regime), USDA cattle-on-feed (near-term supply confirmation). Carcass weight is the direct inventory-pressure read. The current Heavy Carcass firing mirrors 2016 Q4 condition; if LC-corn ratio and cattle-on-feed also align with pipeline tightening, the forward setup is constructively similar to 2016.
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Oct 31, 2026 10:17 PM ET