CT SPECIALIST · Softs / Pakistan Supply
Z4243 – [CT] CHIRPS Pakistan Punjab Precipitation Signal
CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab captures moisture stress on Pakistani cotton production and transmits to Cotton forward 60-day returns via the fifth-largest-producer supply channel.
At a glance
DORMANT · WAITING FOR MAY
Current reading
+0.660
SEASONAL STATE
DORMANT · WAITING FOR MAY
Pakistan cotton growing season runs May through October; off-season precipitation has…
Signal state
Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress)
33 days in Healthy phase
Updated
Nov 04, 2026
CHIRPS daily release
Sample
36-year window
Daily cadence; 1990 onward
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly. · NEXT WINDOW MAY-OCT PAKISTAN COTTON GROWING SEASON
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Pakistan is the world’s fifth-largest cotton producer and the Punjab province of eastern Pakistan accounts for roughly 80 percent of Pakistani cotton. The CHIRPS satellite-rain-gauge blended precipitation product provides daily 5-kilometer-resolution rainfall estimates over Punjab. Pakistani cotton depends on both monsoon rainfall and Indus Basin canal irrigation; deficit precipitation stresses yields even when canal supply is stable. Daily Spearman IC against Cotton forward 60-day returns is plus 0.108 at p-value 1.3e-24 across 8,953 observations, strongly significant on the 36-year sample. Phase plus 1 firings (inverted composite positive, deficit precipitation) deliver plus 1.33 pp above baseline. Phase minus 1 firings deliver plus 0.16 pp near baseline. 1.17 pp directional spread with sharp bullish-tail concentration and a non-monotone middle bucket.
LIVE CHART
CT CHIRPS Pakistan Punjab Precipitation Signal
What the chart is showing right now. The dark line is CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab inverted and z-scored on a rolling window and tanh-bounded. Positive composite means deficit precipitation (Pakistani yield stress, bullish CT); negative composite means above-trend precipitation. The bronze line in the middle panel is ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby. The bottom panel tracks the trailing 252-day Spearman information coefficient between the composite and Cotton forward 60-day returns.
COMPOSITE
+0.660 / tanh
STATE
Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress)
PHASE
+0.79
PHASE +1 EDGE
+1.33 pp
PHASE -1 EDGE
+0.16 pp
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress) firing at composite +0.660, 33 trading days running in HEALTHY phase. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 2.30 percent fwd60d / plus 1.33 pp above plus 0.97 percent baseline. Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers plus 1.13 percent / plus 0.16 pp near baseline. Daily Spearman IC plus 0.108 at p-value 1.3e-24 strongly significant.
THE PAKISTAN SUPPLY MECHANISM
Pakistan is the world fifth-largest cotton producer and Punjab grows roughly 80 percent of Pakistani cotton. CHIRPS daily precipitation at 5-kilometer resolution is the cleanest observational read on Punjab moisture conditions. Deficit precipitation stresses yields even when Indus Basin canal supply is stable; the transmission to Cotton futures runs at 60-day horizons via Pakistani supply.
HOW TO POSITION
Directional moisture overlay for Cotton via Pakistani supply channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups with Cotton strength following at 60-day horizon. Precip Above Trend firings flag near-baseline regimes where moisture support stabilizes production. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI, India GRACE, Xinjiang CHIRPS, and CFTC positioning.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.660 in the Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress) band. CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab has run deeply below the rolling mean through 2026.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.660 State Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress), 33 days running in HEALTHY phase.
- CHIRPS Pakistan Punjab precipitation deeply below trend Raw z-score +0.79; CHIRPS precipitation anomaly over Pakistan Punjab has run materially below the rolling mean through 2026 consistent with Pakistani yield-stress regime.
- Daily IC strongly significant, non-overlap not independent Daily Spearman IC plus 0.108 at p-value 1.3e-24 strongly significant on full distribution. Non-overlap IC plus 0.004 at p-value 0.96 not independently significant on 150 samples.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE PAKISTAN CALL
Composite +0.660, Precip Deficit. CHIRPS precipitation over Pakistan Punjab has run deeply below rolling mean through 2026 (inverted composite positive). Signal firing in Precip Deficit bucket for 33 days; forward 60-day edge in Phase +1 historically runs plus 1.33 pp above baseline.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Daily IC plus 0.108 at p-value 1.3e-24 strongly significant on 36-year sample. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers plus 1.33 pp above baseline; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers plus 0.16 pp near baseline. 1.17 pp directional spread with the edge concentrated in the Phase +1 bullish tail.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Non-overlap IC at 60-day sampling plus 0.004 at p-value 0.96 not independently significant on 150 samples. Signal is seasonal (Pakistan cotton growing season May-October); off-season composite ffills. Phase 0 (On Trend) delivers minus 2.84 pp edge; middle bucket is deeply non- monotone and the directional edge concentrates in the extreme buckets.
THE REGIME MAP
The three phases, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 8,953 post-warmup trading days (1990 onward). Baseline Cotton fwd60d mean plus 0.97 percent. Phase +1 (Precip Deficit) delivers +1.33 pp edge; Phase -1 (Precip Above Trend) delivers +0.16 pp. 1.17 pp directional spread with daily IC plus 0.108 strongly significant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precip Deficit (Pakistan Stress) TODAY | +1 | 50.7% (4543 d) | +2.30% | +1.33pp | 2026 (current), 2022, 2015-16 | |
| On Trend | 0 | 25.1% (2245 d) | -1.87% | -2.84pp | various | |
| Precip Above Trend | -1 | 24.2% (2165 d) | +1.13% | +0.16pp | 2017-18, 2010-11 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
What this measures
Z-score of CHIRPS precipitation over the Pakistan Punjab cotton-producing region on a rolling window, inverted, tanh-bounded. Positive composite equals deficit precipitation below rolling mean (bullish CT via Pakistani yield shock); negative composite equals above-trend precipitation. Target ICE US Cotton No. 2 first-nearby back-adjusted close.
Why it matters
Why Pakistan Punjab precipitation matters
Pakistan is the world fifth-largest cotton producer. The Punjab province of eastern Pakistan accounts for roughly 80 percent of Pakistani cotton. CHIRPS satellite-rain-gauge blended precipitation at 5-kilometer daily resolution is the cleanest observational read on Punjab moisture conditions. Pakistani cotton depends on both monsoon rainfall and Indus Basin canal irrigation; deficit precipitation stresses yields even when canal supply is stable, transmitting to Cotton futures via Pakistani supply at 60-day horizons.
How to use this signal today
Directional moisture overlay for Cotton via the Pakistani supply channel. Precip Deficit firings flag bullish supply-shock setups with Cotton strength historically following at 60-day horizon; Precip Above Trend firings flag near-baseline regimes where moisture support stabilizes production. Pair with US Cotton Belt DSCI, India Vidarbha plus Gujarat GRACE, Xinjiang CHIRPS, USDA WASDE, and CFTC positioning for stacked global-supply conviction.
Risk overlay
Daily IC strongly significant but non-overlap test plus 0.004 at p-value 0.96 not independently significant on 150 samples. Signal is seasonal (Pakistan cotton growing season May-October). Phase 0 (On Trend) delivers surprising minus 2.84 pp edge; middle bucket is deeply non-monotone and the directional edge concentrates in the extreme buckets rather than spanning the full composite range.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 09:30 AM ET