CRUDE OIL SPECIALIST · Energy / Chokepoint Flow
Z96584 – [CL] Global Chokepoint Tanker Flow (PortWatch)
Four-chokepoint tanker-transit composite covering Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Cape of Good Hope; global crude seaborne flow disruption gauge.
At a glance
Current composite
-0.963
On the plus-or-minus one scale; inverted chokepoint tanker-transit composite.
Signal state
Moderate NEG
Current state across the Normal Flow / Normal / Chokepoint Disruption regime.
Phase duration
18 sessions
Consecutive trading days in the current phase.
Sample
10+ years
Daily PortWatch tanker-transit data, 2015 onward.
As of Nov 02, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Four PortWatch chokepoints — Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Cape of Good Hope reroute — carry roughly 40% of global seaborne crude. When these transit lanes get stressed, cargoes either reroute (adding 10-14 days) or strand at origin. This signal aggregates daily tanker-transit volumes across all four and inverts them so DISRUPTION reads as a POSITIVE composite. Z-scored, tanh-bounded on the plus-or-minus one scale, with moderate (0.2) and extreme (0.5) state thresholds. See the regime table below for per-state forward-return behavior on NYMEX WTI Crude.
LIVE CHART
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the inverted four-chokepoint tanker-flow composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale — positive means chokepoint flow disruption, negative means normal flow. The bronze line in the middle panel is the NYMEX WTI Crude front-month in dollars per barrel. The bottom panel tracks the 252-day rolling information coefficient between the composite and WTI 60-day forward returns. Dashed horizontal lines mark the plus-or-minus 0.2 moderate and plus-or-minus 0.5 extreme thresholds.
COMPOSITE
-0.963 / tanh
STATE
Moderate NEG
PHASE
-1.94
SAMPLE N
2,900+ days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Neg
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.963, state Moderate NEG, 18 trading days running in the current phase. Per-state baselines in the regime table below.
THE CHOKEPOINT MECHANISM
Approximately 21 percent of seaborne crude transits Hormuz, 5-9 percent transits Suez, and 5-7 percent transits Bab-el-Mandeb (subject to Houthi disruption since 2023). When these routes are blocked or threatened, tankers reroute via the Cape of Good Hope (10-14 extra transit days) or cargoes get stranded at origin. The composite aggregates flow across all four to capture systemic chokepoint stress.
HOW TO POSITION
The empirical 60-day WTI response to chokepoint disruption in the sample window (2015+) has been counter-naive — disruption extremes precede modestly bearish WTI, not bullish. Likely reflects that disruption shocks get priced quickly then mean-revert as alternative routings restore effective supply. Use alongside Hormuz Transit and OPEC Saudi Cut Regime for a full supply-flow picture.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at -0.963. Signal state is Moderate NEG, 18 trading days running. See the regime table below for per-state baselines.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.963 State Moderate NEG, 18 trading days running in the current phase.
- PortWatch chokepoint tanker transit Daily tanker-transit data across Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Cape of Good Hope, inverted so disruption reads positive.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE CHOKEPOINT CALL
Composite -0.963, state Moderate NEG, 18 trading days running. Current direction and per-state baselines are in the regime table below.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Per-state forward returns show a counter-naive pattern in the regime table — the Chokepoint Disruption regime empirically runs below baseline at 60 days, while the Normal regime posts the best forward returns. The sample window (2015+) includes the 2024 Houthi Red Sea disruption and other shorter episodes; a genuine Hormuz closure has not been in the sample.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
The 60-day forward-return framing does not capture the sharp initial-shock move that chokepoint disruption events produce; by the time 60 days pass, alternative routings and inventory draws typically stabilize the supply story and the composite mean-reverts. A truly severe disruption (Hormuz closure, prolonged Suez blockade) would operate outside the sample pattern.
THE REGIME MAP
The three chokepoint flow regime states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from the live window on NYMEX WTI Crude forward returns. Counter-naive pattern — Disruption extremes precede modestly bearish WTI via shock-and-mean-reversion.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chokepoint Disruption TODAY | +1 | 24.5% (712 d) | +0.13% | -2.85pp | Oct 2026, Sep 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 36.5% (1063 d) | +5.23% | +2.24pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Aug 2026 | |
| Normal Flow | -1 | 39.0% (1137 d) | +2.59% | -0.39pp | Jul 2026, Jul 2026, Feb 2026 |
The historical pattern
The signal across the PortWatch coverage era (2015 onward)
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d WTI Crude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 10/23/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 1d | +4.92% |
| Positive | 10/24/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 5d | +5.27% |
| Neutral | 10/31/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 1d | +6.40% |
| Positive | 11/01/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 1d | +5.39% |
| Neutral | 11/04/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 2d | +4.91% |
| Negative | 11/06/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 8d | +2.23% |
| Neutral | 11/18/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 11d | +3.97% |
| Positive | 12/04/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 2d | -4.05% |
| Neutral | 12/06/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 1d | -5.25% |
| Positive | 12/09/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 2d | -7.29% |
| Neutral | 12/11/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 2d | -8.00% |
| Negative | 12/13/2024 | 12/20/2024 | 6d | -6.85% |
| Neutral | 12/23/2024 | 12/23/2024 | 1d | -3.47% |
| Negative | 12/24/2024 | 06/11/2025 | 116d | -4.30% |
| Neutral | 06/12/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 6d | +7.42% |
| Positive | 06/23/2025 | 07/14/2025 | 15d | +9.84% |
| Neutral | 07/15/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10d | +8.19% |
| Positive | 07/29/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 2d | +5.12% |
| Neutral | 07/31/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 1d | +7.15% |
| Positive | 08/01/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 8d | +10.22% |
| Neutral | 08/13/2025 | 08/25/2025 | 9d | +3.94% |
| Negative | 08/26/2025 | 09/12/2025 | 13d | +2.71% |
| Neutral | 09/15/2025 | 09/29/2025 | 11d | +3.35% |
| Negative | 09/30/2025 | 10/14/2025 | 11d | +3.63% |
| Neutral | 10/15/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 5d | +4.51% |
| Negative | 10/22/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 22d | +1.46% |
| Neutral | 11/21/2025 | 12/05/2025 | 10d | +4.61% |
| Negative | 12/08/2025 | 12/08/2025 | 1d | -1.65% |
| Neutral | 12/09/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 1d | -0.70% |
| Negative | 12/10/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 2d | -1.51% |
| Neutral | 12/12/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 1d | -2.30% |
| Negative | 12/15/2025 | 12/17/2025 | 3d | -2.71% |
| Neutral | 12/18/2025 | 12/19/2025 | 2d | -2.22% |
| Positive | 12/22/2025 | 12/29/2025 | 5d | -5.29% |
| Neutral | 12/30/2025 | 12/30/2025 | 1d | -7.70% |
| Positive | 12/31/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 1d | -7.32% |
| Neutral | 01/02/2026 | 01/06/2026 | 3d | -4.81% |
| Positive | 01/07/2026 | 02/02/2026 | 18d | -4.44% |
| Neutral | 02/03/2026 | 02/03/2026 | 1d | +4.22% |
| Positive | 02/04/2026 | 02/06/2026 | 3d | +5.02% |
| Neutral | 02/09/2026 | 02/17/2026 | 6d | +5.75% |
| Negative | 02/18/2026 | 02/24/2026 | 5d | +9.02% |
| Neutral | 02/25/2026 | 02/25/2026 | 1d | +7.15% |
| Negative | 02/26/2026 | 03/03/2026 | 4d | +8.17% |
| Positive | 03/04/2026 | 06/25/2026 | 79d | +10.41% |
| Neutral | 06/26/2026 | 06/26/2026 | 1d | +6.09% |
| Positive | 06/29/2026 | 06/30/2026 | 2d | +3.62% |
| Neutral | 07/01/2026 | 07/07/2026 | 4d | +3.43% |
| Positive | 07/08/2026 | 07/08/2026 | 1d | +2.49% |
| Neutral | 07/09/2026 | 07/21/2026 | 9d | +2.39% |
| Negative | 07/22/2026 | 07/27/2026 | 4d | +3.26% |
| Neutral | 07/28/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 1d | +4.35% |
| Negative | 07/29/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 3d | +4.73% |
| Neutral | 08/03/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 1d | |
| Positive | 08/04/2026 | 08/25/2026 | 16d | |
| Neutral | 08/26/2026 | 09/04/2026 | 8d | |
| Positive | 09/08/2026 | 09/28/2026 | 15d | |
| Neutral | 09/29/2026 | 10/07/2026 | 7d | |
| Positive | 10/08/2026 | 10/23/2026 | 12d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day WTI Crude is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Global crude seaborne flow runs through four key chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz (21 percent of global seaborne crude), the Suez Canal (5-9 percent), Bab-el-Mandeb (5-7 percent), and the Cape of Good Hope reroute. The composite reads daily PortWatch tanker-transit data across these four chokepoints, inverted so DISRUPTION reads as a POSITIVE composite, z-scored, tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus-or-minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus-or-minus 0.5 (extreme).
Why it matters
Why four chokepoints read global crude flow
Roughly 40 percent of global seaborne crude moves through just three chokepoints — Hormuz (21 percent), Suez (5-9 percent), Bab-el-Mandeb (5-7 percent). The Cape of Good Hope serves as the primary reroute option when the other three are disrupted. Aggregating these four captures the systemic chokepoint-stress picture better than any single chokepoint signal.
Why disruption is empirically bearish at 60 days
Naive reasoning says chokepoint disruption tightens supply and should firm crude. The data in the 2015-plus sample shows the opposite at 60 days — disruption shocks get priced quickly in headline reactions, then alternative routings (Cape reroute, inventory draws, OPEC flex volume) restore effective supply and the composite mean-reverts. The sample period has not included a genuine Hormuz closure which would operate outside this pattern.
How to use this signal today
Global chokepoint stress gauge, best paired with the Hormuz Transit signal (Persian Gulf specific) and the OPEC Saudi Cut Regime signal (production-side). For sharp disruption-event alpha, cross-reference with headline-based news; the 60-day empirical pattern here captures mean-reversion after the shock, not the shock itself.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and refer to the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 04, 2026 10:03 PM ET