NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Supply
Z100331 – [NG] Haynesville-Appalachia Rig Ratio Z
Capital rotates between Haynesville and Appalachia based on basin economics. The ratio tracks which basin is attracting rigs.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.817
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Moderate Haynesville
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
360 sessions
Current Haynesville-dominant run began June 2025.
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Operators choose where to deploy rigs based on relative basin economics. Haynesville gas feeds US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals; Appalachia gas feeds the Northeast domestic market via takeaway pipelines. The rig ratio tracks which basin is attracting capital, which transmits into pipeline and LNG supply over 6-12 months.
State-conditional edges are weak across 8,682 trading days. State minus one (Haynesville-dominant rig deployment) covers 23.4 percent of the sample and delivers minus 0.79 percent forward 60-day, a plus 0.30pp edge against the minus 1.09 percent baseline. State plus one (Appalachia-dominant) covers 9.9 percent and delivers minus 1.01 percent, a plus 0.08pp edge. Signal is read as basin-rotation context rather than tactical trigger. Current state is Haynesville-dominant, 360 trading sessions since June 2025.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-four years of Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Negative means Haynesville-dominant (LNG-feed building). Positive means Appalachia-dominant (domestic takeaway pressure). The bronze line is NYMEX natural gas.
COMPOSITE
-0.817 / tanh
STATE
Moderate Haynesville
PHASE
-1
FWD 60d
-0.79% (edge +0.30pp)
SAMPLE N
8,682 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Moderate Haynesville
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.817 (Moderate Haynesville, 360 sessions). Capital allocation strongly favoring Haynesville since June 2025. State-conditional edges are weak; read as basin-rotation context.
THE BASIN-ROTATION MECHANIC
Haynesville gas feeds US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals. Appalachia gas feeds the Northeast domestic market. When capital rotates to Haynesville, LNG-feed supply is building. When capital rotates to Appalachia, domestic takeaway pressure is building.
HOW TO POSITION
Signal discrimination is modest. Read alongside the DUC drawdown composite and the Africa LNG-supply composite for a multi-channel supply view. Watch Friday Baker Hughes rig-count release.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.817, firmly in the Moderate Haynesville band near the extreme threshold. NG has fallen from 4.13 to 2.86 through the extended Haynesville-dominant run.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.817 Tanh-bounded 24-month z-score of Haynesville-Appalachia rig count ratio.
- Raw rolling z-score -1.15 The rig ratio sits roughly 1.2 standard deviations below its 24-month trailing average.
- Phase run 360 sessions Current Haynesville-dominant regime entered June 2025 and has persisted through the 2025-2026 LNG export ramp.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE RIG RATIO IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.817 sits in the Moderate Haynesville band, 360 sessions into the current regime. Raw z is -1.15, meaning the Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio is roughly 1.2 standard deviations below its 24-month trailing average. Translation: capital is firmly rotated toward Haynesville, suggesting LNG-feed supply is building.
THE NG SUPPLY STACK
This signal is the basin-rotation leg of the NG supply stack. The DUC drawdown composite reads inventory dynamics within Haynesville. The Africa rigs YoY composite reads global LNG-feed supply outside the US.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above minus 0.2 (Neutral routing). Capital rotation easing. Second, the composite crosses above plus 0.5 (Appalachia Dominant). Northeast pipeline supply pressure rising.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1992 through present, 8,682 live-signal days). Weak state discrimination. basin-rotation context backdrop.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haynesville Dominant TODAY | -1 | 60.3% (2036 d) | -0.80% | +0.51pp | Jun 2025, Sep 2024, Jun 2024 | |
| Neutral Routing | 0 | 14.3% (484 d) | -3.92% | -2.61pp | May 2025, Aug 2024, Oct 2022 | |
| Appalachia Dominant | +1 | 25.4% (859 d) | -1.01% | +0.30pp | Nov 2024, Jan 2023, Nov 2021 |
The historical pattern of basin-rotation rig-allocation regimes
The signal across 34 years of Haynesville-Appalachia rotation history
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
2 state transitions from 05/01/2025 to 11/04/2026. Full history (44 total transitions since 04/02/1992) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 05/01/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 21d | +13.75% |
| Defensive LIVE | 06/02/2025 | current | 360d | +9.10% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Operators choose where to deploy rigs based on relative basin economics including gas price differentials, takeaway pipeline availability, and completion costs. Haynesville gas feeds US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals; Appalachia gas feeds the Northeast domestic market. The signal reads the ratio on a z-scored basis against its 24-month rolling norm.
Why it matters
Why basin-rotation matters for the US gas story
US gas production geography matters because different basins feed different demand pools. Haynesville gas flows to US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals; Appalachia (Marcellus-Utica) gas flows to the Northeast domestic market. Capital allocation between the two basins predicts which demand pool is getting supplied over the following 6-12 months.
Why the signal discrimination is weak
State-conditional edges on this signal are small (plus 0.30pp for Haynesville-dominant, plus 0.08pp for Appalachia-dominant). The basin-rotation story is slower-moving than monthly or weekly demand signals, and the forward 60-day horizon may not capture the full 6-12 month transmission. The signal is best used as a backdrop context indicator rather than a tactical trigger.
How to use this signal today
The composite reading is firmly in Haynesville-dominant territory. Capital allocation is strongly tilted toward LNG-feed supply over domestic takeaway. For a gas PM, this is background support for the bearish case near-term, but weak as a standalone signal.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:55 AM ET