NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Supply
Z100328 – [NG] DUC Haynesville Drawdown Z
Haynesville DUC drawdowns capture the pull-forward supply moment. operators completing wells without new drilling. The signal reads the 24-month deviation.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
-0.070
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Neutral DUC
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
192 sessions
Current Neutral run began April 2026.
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Drilled-but-uncompleted well counts measure the gap between drilling activity and completion activity. When DUCs drain, operators are completing from inventory. supply hitting the market without new rigs having to come online. When DUCs build, rigs are drilling but operators are banking inventory rather than selling now. Both signal distinct supply-chain states for US gas.
State-conditional edges are modest across 8,682 trading days. State minus one (strong drawdown, composite below minus 0.5) covers 13.7 percent of the sample and delivers minus 1.88 percent forward 60-day, a minus 0.79pp edge against the minus 1.09 percent baseline. State plus one (strong buildup) covers 15.2 percent and delivers minus 0.98 percent, a plus 0.11pp edge. Signal discrimination is weak compared to the demand stack; read as backdrop context, not tactical trigger.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-four years of Haynesville DUC count 24-month deviation against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the Haynesville DUC drawdown composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Negative means DUC drawdown (supply pull-forward). Positive means DUC buildup (completions deferred). The bronze line is NYMEX natural gas.
COMPOSITE
-0.070 / tanh
STATE
Neutral DUC
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
baseline
SAMPLE N
8,682 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Neutral Duc
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite -0.070 (Neutral DUC, 192 sessions). Haynesville DUC sits near its 24-month norm. State-conditional edges are modest; signal is a supply-backdrop context read, not a tactical trigger.
THE DUC MECHANIC
DUC count = drilling done, completion pending. Drawdowns signal operators completing wells from inventory, pulling supply forward WITHOUT new rig activity. Buildups signal rigs drilling but completions deferred. Each describes a distinct supply-chain regime.
HOW TO POSITION
Signal discrimination is weak relative to the NG demand stack. Read alongside the Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio and the Africa rigs YoY composite for a multi-channel supply view. Monthly EIA DPR update cadence.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at -0.070, in the Neutral DUC band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite -0.070 Tanh-bounded 24-month z-score of EIA Haynesville DUC count. In the Neutral DUC band.
- Raw rolling z-score -0.07 Haynesville DUC count is essentially at the 24-month norm.
- Phase run 192 sessions Current Neutral run began April 2026.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE DUC SIGNAL IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of -0.070 sits in the Neutral DUC band. Raw z is -0.07. Haynesville DUC count is essentially on its 24-month norm; neither drawdown nor buildup pressure is firing.
THE NG SUPPLY STACK
This signal is the DUC inventory leg of the NG supply stack. The Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio reads basin-rotation supply pressure. The Africa rigs YoY composite reads LNG-feed global supply.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite drops below minus 0.5 (Strong DUC drawdown). Operators pulling forward supply. Second, the composite moves above plus 0.5 (Strong DUC buildup). Operators banking inventory.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the Haynesville DUC composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1992 through present, 8,682 live-signal days). Weak state discrimination. supply-side context backdrop.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUC drawdown (pull-forward supply) | -1 | 36.8% (1189 d) | -1.88% | -0.30pp | Feb 2025, May 2023, Nov 2022 | |
| Neutral DUC TODAY | 0 | 22.4% (723 d) | -2.23% | -0.64pp | Feb 2026, Dec 2025, Oct 2025 | |
| DUC buildup (completions deferred) | +1 | 40.8% (1319 d) | -0.99% | +0.59pp | Jan 2026, Nov 2025, Mar 2025 |
The historical pattern of Haynesville DUC supply-chain regimes
The signal across 34 years of Haynesville DUC history
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
9 state transitions from 12/02/2024 to 11/04/2026. Full history (79 total transitions since 04/02/1992) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12/02/2024 | 12/31/2024 | 21d | -1.57% |
| Expansion | 01/02/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 21d | -4.32% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 19d | -7.23% |
| Expansion | 03/03/2025 | 09/30/2025 | 147d | +0.68% |
| Neutral | 10/01/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 23d | +3.27% |
| Expansion | 11/03/2025 | 11/28/2025 | 19d | +1.26% |
| Neutral | 12/01/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 22d | +0.84% |
| Expansion | 01/02/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 20d | -4.81% |
| Neutral LIVE | 02/02/2026 | current | 192d | +2.33% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells represent drilling that is finished but completion is still pending. When Haynesville DUCs drain below the 24-month norm, operators are pulling supply forward through completions without new rigs. When DUCs build, the inventory bank is growing and supply is deferred. The signal reads the 24-month deviation on a z-scored basis and tracks the pull-forward versus bank-building regime.
Why it matters
Why DUC counts matter for the nat gas supply story
Rig counts capture drilling intention, but DUCs capture the completion decision, which is what actually puts gas into the pipe. When operators drill-and-complete in-phase, DUCs stay flat. When they complete faster than they drill (drawdown), supply is pulling forward. When they drill faster than they complete (buildup), inventory banks are growing against future completions. Each regime has a distinct forward-price signature.
Why the Haynesville matters
Haynesville is one of the two primary US gas basins (the other being Appalachia / Marcellus). Haynesville gas has direct pipeline access to US Gulf Coast LNG export terminals, making it the marginal barrel for global LNG demand. DUC dynamics in Haynesville transmit directly into LNG-feed supply over 60-90 days.
How to use this signal today
The composite reading is in Neutral DUC band. No supply-side pull-forward or bank-building firing. Watch the monthly EIA Drilling Productivity Report release for updated DUC figures.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:54 AM ET