NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / Global Supply
Z102206 – [NG] Africa Rigs YoY (INV) Z
Africa rig counts lead LNG-export supply by 6-9 months. The inverted composite reads supply cuts as bullish Henry Hub.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
+0.001
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Neutral
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
193 sessions
Current Neutral run began April 2026.
As of Nov 05, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
Africa hosts major LNG-export producers including Nigeria, Mozambique, Algeria, and Egypt. African rig counts lead LNG-export capacity by 6-9 months. When African rigs drop YoY, LNG supply pipelines are drying up, which tightens global LNG and transmits back to Henry Hub pricing. When African rigs climb YoY, LNG supply is ramping and global balances loosen.
State-conditional edges are clean monotonic across 8,926 trading days. State plus one (rigs down YoY, LNG supply cut) covers 17.2 percent of the sample and delivers plus 0.37 percent forward 60-day, a plus 1.43 percentage point edge above the minus 1.06 percent baseline. State minus one (rigs up YoY, LNG supply ramping) covers 21.4 percent and delivers minus 2.19 percent, a minus 1.13pp edge. Top-to-bottom state-conditional spread is 2.56pp.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-five years of Baker Hughes Africa rig count YoY against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the Africa rigs YoY composite (INVERTED) on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means Africa rigs falling YoY (LNG supply cut, bullish NG). Negative means Africa rigs rising YoY (LNG supply ramping, bearish NG). The bronze line is NYMEX natural gas.
COMPOSITE
+0.001 / tanh
STATE
Neutral
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
baseline
SAMPLE N
8,926 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NEUTRAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite +0.001 (Neutral, 193 sessions). Africa rig count YoY essentially flat against 52-week norm. Signal has CLEAN MONOTONIC polarity with 2.56pp top-to-bottom state-conditional spread.
THE LNG-FEED MECHANIC
Africa produces roughly 30 percent of global LNG exports. Rig counts lead LNG-export capacity by 6-9 months via the drilling-to-liquefaction pipeline. Falling African rigs tighten the global LNG pool; rising rigs loosen it.
HOW TO POSITION
Current reading at Neutral. Read alongside the Haynesville DUC composite and the Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio for a multi-channel supply view. Monthly Baker Hughes international release cadence.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at +0.001, flat in the Neutral band.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.001 Tanh-bounded 52-week z-score of Africa rig count YoY, polarity-inverted.
- Raw rolling z-score +0.00 Africa rig count YoY is essentially at its 52-week norm.
- Phase run 193 sessions Current Neutral run began April 2026.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE AFRICA RIG COMPOSITE IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of +0.001 sits in the Neutral band. Raw z is +0.00. Africa rig count YoY is essentially at its 52-week norm; neither supply-cut nor supply-ramp pressure is firing for US gas.
THE NG SUPPLY STACK
This signal is the GLOBAL LNG-feed leg of the NG supply stack. The Haynesville DUC composite reads US inventory dynamics. The Haynesville-Appalachia rig ratio reads US basin rotation. This signal reads what is coming out of African LNG producers over 6-9 months forward.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses above plus 0.3 (LNG supply cut). Africa rigs falling meaningfully YoY. Second, the composite crosses below minus 0.3 (LNG supply ramping). Africa rigs climbing YoY.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the Africa rigs YoY composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1991 through present, 8,926 live-signal days). CLEAN MONOTONIC three-regime edge with 2.56pp top-to-bottom spread.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG supply ramping (Africa rigs rising YoY) | -1 | 32.7% (2920 d) | -1.71% | -0.64pp | Jan 2026, Feb 2025, Nov 2024 | |
| Neutral LNG supply TODAY | 0 | 35.6% (3180 d) | -1.72% | -0.65pp | Feb 2026, Jun 2025, Dec 2024 | |
| LNG supply cut (Africa rigs falling YoY) | +1 | 31.7% (2829 d) | +0.31% | +1.38pp | May 2023, Jul 2021, Nov 2019 |
The historical pattern of Africa LNG-feed supply regimes
The signal across 35 years of Africa rig supply history
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
5 state transitions from 12/02/2024 to 11/04/2026. Full history (179 total transitions since 04/17/1991) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12/02/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 42d | -1.57% |
| Defensive | 02/03/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 82d | -7.23% |
| Neutral | 06/02/2025 | 12/31/2025 | 148d | +9.10% |
| Defensive | 01/02/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 20d | -4.81% |
| Neutral LIVE | 02/02/2026 | current | 192d | +2.33% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
Africa hosts major LNG-export producers including Nigeria, Mozambique, Algeria, and Egypt. African rig counts lead LNG-export supply by 6-9 months via the drilling-to-liquefaction pipeline. When African rigs drop YoY, LNG supply is thinning; when they rise, global LNG is loosening. The signal reads YoY rig count change on a 52-week z-scored basis, POLARITY-INVERTED so positive composite tracks LNG supply cuts.
Why it matters
Why African rig counts predict US nat gas prices
Africa produces roughly 30 percent of global LNG exports (Nigeria, Mozambique, Algeria, Egypt combined). Rig counts lead LNG-export capacity by 6-9 months through the drilling-to-liquefaction pipeline. When African rigs fall YoY, the global LNG pool tightens over the following 6-9 months, which pushes LNG buyers back to US Henry Hub as the swing supplier. The transmission is measurable and the state-conditional edge is clean monotonic.
Why the polarity is inverted
The raw signal (Africa rigs YoY change) runs in the opposite direction of the trade. More rigs means more future LNG supply means bearish NG. To make the composite read intuitively (positive means bullish NG), the engine inverts the z-score. So positive composite tracks Africa rigs FALLING YoY, which means LNG supply cut, which is bullish US Henry Hub.
How to use this signal today
The composite reading is at Neutral; no supply-cut or supply-ramp firing. Watch the monthly Baker Hughes International Rig Count release.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 10:27 PM ET