· Analytic
Z3735 FC WOAH Screwworm Event Signal
WOAH New World screwworm hemispheric event-count detector (crisis-receding leg) as a Grade B directional signal with marginal independent-sample significance on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.762
Crisis Receding extreme-positive firing, 36d running
Signal state
Extreme Crisis Receding
phase +1, hemispheric outbreak dropping off peak
Sample
Daily CME, 17-year span
WOAH hemispheric event-detector, 2009+
Daily IC
+0.145 (p < 1e-21)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 4,314
Non-overlap IC
+0.158 (p = 0.184)
Every-60d, n = 72, MARGINAL (sample-constrained)
Baseline FC fwd60d
+2.04%
Unconditional mean (live window)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) WAHIS surveillance system tracks New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreaks across the Western Hemisphere. Screwworm detection in Mexico or Central America triggers USDA APHIS border closures on live cattle imports from affected zones. When outbreak reports collapse off their recent peak, APHIS begins the border-reopen sequence, Mexican supply returns, and feedlot competition for domestic feeders drops. The released feeder-supply demand pulse hits CME Feeder Cattle 60 days forward. This signal reads 60-day rolling outbreak counts across Mexico plus Central America plus US WOAH reports. The event fires when the 60-day sum has dropped at least 50 percent off its trailing 252-day peak — the inflection moment where the trade-restriction policy relaxes. A 40-day exponential decay carries the event forward until the next peak. The honest grade: Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.145 at p-value below 1e-21 across 4,314 trading days — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.158 at p-value 0.184 across 72 independent samples — MARGINAL (fails the standard 0.05 significance bar). The non-overlap sample is sample-constrained — the live window (2009+) provides only 72 non-overlap observations, insufficient for strong independence confirmation. Phase +1 (Crisis Receding firing) historically delivers +3.17 percent fwd60d (+1.13 pp above baseline, hit 63 percent). The signal is highly event-driven — Phase +1 covers only 24 percent of sample. Current reading: Crisis Receding extreme-positive at composite plus 0.762, 36 trading days running. The hemispheric outbreak count has dropped meaningfully off recent peak. Watch for continued trade-policy relaxation as the mechanism confirmation.
LIVE CHART
FC WOAH Screwworm Event Signal
Composite reads plus 0.762 as of October 30, 2026, in the Crisis Receding extreme-positive band. The hemispheric WOAH outbreak count has dropped at least 50 percent off recent peak. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.762 / tanh
STATE
Crisis Receding Ex
PHASE
+1
DAILY IC
+0.145 (p < 1e-21)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.184 (marginal)
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Crisis Receding
STATE AND HISTORY
Crisis Receding extreme-positive firing at composite +0.762, 36 trading days running. Phase +1 historically delivers +3.17 percent fwd60d / 63 percent hit / +1.13 pp above baseline. Daily IC +0.145 at p-value below 1e-21. Independence test at p-value 0.184 across 72 non-overlap samples — MARGINAL.
THE SCREWWORM-POLICY MECHANISM
WOAH screwworm detection in Mexico or Central America triggers USDA APHIS live-cattle border closures. When 60-day outbreak counts drop off recent peak by at least 50 percent, APHIS begins the reopen sequence, Mexican supply returns, and feedlot competition for domestic feeders drops.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as supportive-but-not-standalone evidence due to marginal non-overlap significance. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Crisis Receding firing, bullish-FC lean near-term as the Mexican supply pulse hits.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at plus 0.762 in the Crisis Receding extreme-positive band. The blue signal line has moved above the plus 0.5 threshold as the hemispheric WOAH outbreak count has dropped off recent peak. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.762 State Crisis Receding extreme-positive firing, 36 days running.
- Hemispheric WOAH count dropping off peak 60-day rolling WOAH screwworm count across Mexico plus Central America plus US has dropped at least 50 percent off recent 252-day peak.
- Marginal non-overlap IC – supportive evidence Daily IC +0.145 at p-value below 1e-21. Non-overlap IC p-value 0.184 MARGINAL (fails strict 0.05 bar, sample-constrained to 72 non-overlap observations).
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SCREWWORM CALL
Composite +0.762, Crisis Receding extreme-positive. Hemispheric screwworm outbreak counts have dropped at least 50 percent off their recent 252-day peak. APHIS border-reopen sequence likely active.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Crisis Receding) historical fwd60d FC mean +3.17 percent (+1.13 pp vs baseline, hit 63 percent). Bullish lean when firing. Event covers 24 percent of sample.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.145 at p-value below 1e-21 strongly significant. Non-overlap p-value 0.184 MARGINAL (fails strict 0.05 bar). Grade B directional, supportive-but-not-standalone evidence. The non-overlap failure is sample-constrained: live window 2009+ provides only 72 non-overlap observations.
THE REGIME MAP
The two active states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 4,314 trading days using RUN-ENTRY sampling. Baseline FC fwd60d: plus 2.04 percent. Grade B directional with MARGINAL independent-sample significance (non-overlap p=0.184 fails strict 0.05 bar). Event-driven signal.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crisis Receding TODAY | +1 | 13.8% (1252 d) | +2.07% | +0.86pp | Sep 2026, Aug 2026, Jun 2026 | |
| Normal | 0 | 86.2% (7797 d) | +3.81% | +2.61pp | Aug 2026, Jul 2026, Mar 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 17-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal | 10/30/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 69d | +3.76% |
| Crisis Receding | 02/10/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 24d | -7.22% |
| Normal | 03/17/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 67d | +6.03% |
| Crisis Receding | 06/23/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 81d | +9.84% |
| Normal | 10/16/2025 | 12/05/2025 | 36d | +5.01% |
| Crisis Receding | 12/08/2025 | 01/05/2026 | 19d | -1.65% |
| Normal | 01/06/2026 | 02/24/2026 | 34d | -5.20% |
| Crisis Receding | 02/25/2026 | 03/24/2026 | 20d | +7.15% |
| Normal | 03/25/2026 | 06/25/2026 | 64d | +13.33% |
| Crisis Receding | 06/26/2026 | 07/28/2026 | 22d | +6.09% |
| Normal | 07/29/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 3d | +4.73% |
| Crisis Receding | 08/03/2026 | 08/26/2026 | 18d | +1.58% |
| Normal | 08/27/2026 | 09/10/2026 | 10d | |
| Crisis Receding | 09/11/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 36d |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls daily WOAH WAHIS reports for New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) filtered to Western Hemisphere countries (Mexico, United States, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama), computes 60-day rolling count, measures the receding fraction off trailing 252-day peak, fires an event when the fraction exceeds 0.5, and applies 40-day exponential decay. Daily release cadence.
Why it matters
Why screwworm policy drives FC supply
New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) is a parasite that infests warm-blooded animals and can kill cattle rapidly if untreated. The US was declared screwworm-free in 1966 but outbreaks in Mexico or Central America trigger immediate USDA APHIS live-cattle import restrictions. Mexican feeder cattle flows account for approximately 10-15 percent of annual US feeder-cattle supply.
Why Grade B with marginal independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.145 at p-value below 1e-21 across 4,314 observations — strongly significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.184 across 72 independent samples — MARGINAL (fails standard 0.05 bar). The non-overlap failure is sample-constrained — the signal has only 17 years of history (2009+) which provides 72 non-overlap observations.
How to use this signal today
In the current Crisis Receding extreme-positive firing, bullish-FC lean near-term as the Mexican supply-return pulse hits. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, and the LC-corn ratio signal. This is an event-detector signal — actionable only when firing (Phase +1).
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 06:22 PM ET