NAT GAS SPECIALIST · Energy / LNG Arbitrage
Z100429 – [NG] TTF-HH Spread Z
TTF minus HH captures the arb economics driving US LNG exports. Wide spread pulls Gulf Coast feedgas.
At a glance
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Current composite
+0.875
On the plus-or-minus one tanh scale
SEASONAL STATE
IN-SEASON · ACTIVE
Live year-round on daily cadence.
Signal state
Extreme POS
Current state across the three-state regime machine.
Phase duration
183 sessions
Current Extreme POS run began February 2026.
As of Nov 04, 2026. Updated nightly.
SIGNAL OVERVIEW
European TTF gas trades at a premium to US Henry Hub when EU demand pulls LNG hard. The TTF-HH spread captures the arbitrage economics that drive US LNG terminal utilization. When the spread widens, Gulf Coast LNG exporters fill their terminals and feedgas demand pulls on domestic supply. When the spread narrows, US LNG exports slow and domestic supply loosens.
State-conditional edges are monotonic across 8,682 trading days. State plus one (wide TTF-HH spread) covers 19.1 percent of the sample and delivers minus 0.10 percent forward 60-day, a plus 1.00 percentage point edge above the minus 1.09 percent baseline. State minus one (narrow spread) covers 20.6 percent and delivers minus 2.63 percent, a minus 1.54pp edge. The 2.54pp top-to-bottom spread confirms the arb-economics mechanism.
LIVE CHART
Thirty-four years of TTF-HH spread against NYMEX natural gas forward returns.
What the chart is showing. The dark line in the top panel is the TTF-HH spread composite on a tanh-bounded plus-or-minus one scale. Positive means wide spread (US LNG arb open, bullish gas). Negative means narrow spread (US LNG arb closed, bearish gas). The bronze line is NYMEX natural gas.
COMPOSITE
+0.875 / tanh
STATE
Extreme POS
PHASE
+1
FWD 60d
-0.10% (edge +1.00pp)
SAMPLE N
8,682 days
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
Extreme Pos
STATE AND HISTORY
Composite +0.875 (Extreme POS, 183 sessions). TTF-HH spread near multi-year wides. State Wide TTF-HH spread has historically delivered a plus 1.00pp forward 60-day edge above the baseline.
THE ARB MECHANIC
European TTF premium over US Henry Hub drives US LNG export economics. When the spread widens, Gulf Coast LNG exporters run terminals at maximum capacity and feedgas demand pulls on domestic supply. Narrow spread slows exports.
HOW TO POSITION
Current state is Extreme POS and has been running for a long window. Pair with the Rotterdam LNG regas composite and the EU storage seasonal composite for a three-channel LNG view.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite tag at the right edge of the top panel is sitting at +0.875, firmly in the Extreme POS band near the extreme threshold. The bronze NG line is at 2.86.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.875 Tanh-bounded z-score of TTF-HH spread. In the Extreme POS band.
- Raw rolling z-score +1.24 The TTF-HH spread is roughly 1.7 standard deviations above its rolling norm.
- Phase run 183 sessions Current Extreme POS regime entered February 2026.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
WHAT THE TTF-HH SPREAD IS TELLING YOU
The composite reading of +0.875 sits firmly in the Extreme POS band. Raw z is +1.24, meaning the TTF-HH spread is roughly 1.7 standard deviations above its rolling norm. European buyers are paying a steep premium over US Henry Hub, keeping the US LNG arb firmly open and pulling Gulf Coast feedgas.
THE NG GLOBAL STACK
This signal is the ARB-ECONOMICS leg of the NG global stack. The Rotterdam LNG regas composite reads physical EU LNG deliveries. The EU storage seasonal composite reads the underlying demand driver. Together they cover price signal, flow, and inventory.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS READING
Two triggers. First, the composite crosses below plus 0.5 (back to Moderate POS). Spread narrowing. Second, the composite drops below minus 0.5 (Extreme NEG). US LNG arb closed. Watch ICE TTF versus NYMEX HH daily settlements.
THE REGIME MAP
The three regime states, forward returns and sample share
Behavior across the TTF-HH spread composite (NYMEX NG benchmark, 1992 through present, 8,682 live-signal days). CLEAN MONOTONIC with 2.54pp top-to-bottom edge.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow TTF-HH spread (US LNG arb closed) | -1 | 43.2% (1784 d) | -2.63% | -1.18pp | Aug 2025, Feb 2025, Jan 2025 | |
| Normal spread | 0 | 16.7% (688 d) | -1.50% | -0.05pp | Feb 2026, Feb 2026, Jan 2026 | |
| Wide TTF-HH spread (US LNG arb open) TODAY | +1 | 40.2% (1659 d) | -0.11% | +1.34pp | Feb 2026, Feb 2026, Feb 2026 |
The historical pattern of TTF-HH arbitrage regimes
The signal across 34 years of TTF-HH spread history
THE TRACK RECORD
Every state change in the last 2 years
29 state transitions from 12/02/2024 to 11/04/2026. Full history (397 total transitions since 04/02/1992) is downloadable.
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12/02/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 5d | -1.57% |
| Defensive | 12/09/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 2d | -4.76% |
| Neutral | 12/11/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 2d | -8.48% |
| Defensive | 12/13/2024 | 12/16/2024 | 2d | -8.74% |
| Neutral | 12/17/2024 | 12/26/2024 | 7d | -6.15% |
| Expansion | 12/27/2024 | 12/27/2024 | 1d | -4.44% |
| Defensive | 12/30/2024 | 12/30/2024 | 1d | -3.59% |
| Neutral | 12/31/2024 | 01/02/2025 | 2d | -5.19% |
| Expansion | 01/03/2025 | 01/03/2025 | 1d | -5.23% |
| Neutral | 01/06/2025 | 01/07/2025 | 2d | -5.18% |
| Defensive | 01/08/2025 | 01/27/2025 | 13d | -14.29% |
| Neutral | 01/28/2025 | 01/29/2025 | 2d | -9.57% |
| Expansion | 01/30/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 2d | -8.96% |
| Neutral | 02/03/2025 | 02/06/2025 | 4d | -7.23% |
| Expansion | 02/07/2025 | 02/11/2025 | 3d | -6.99% |
| Neutral | 02/12/2025 | 02/12/2025 | 1d | -6.47% |
| Defensive | 02/13/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 131d | -4.39% |
| Neutral | 08/22/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 3d | +3.16% |
| Defensive | 08/27/2025 | 01/05/2026 | 90d | +0.91% |
| Neutral | 01/06/2026 | 01/13/2026 | 6d | -5.20% |
| Expansion | 01/14/2026 | 01/16/2026 | 3d | -0.62% |
| Neutral | 01/20/2026 | 01/22/2026 | 3d | +3.55% |
| Expansion | 01/23/2026 | 01/23/2026 | 1d | +2.15% |
| Neutral | 01/26/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 5d | +2.67% |
| Expansion | 02/02/2026 | 02/02/2026 | 1d | +2.33% |
| Neutral | 02/03/2026 | 02/05/2026 | 3d | +4.22% |
| Expansion | 02/06/2026 | 02/09/2026 | 2d | +4.80% |
| Neutral | 02/10/2026 | 02/12/2026 | 3d | +5.70% |
| Expansion LIVE | 02/13/2026 | current | 183d | +8.28% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day SPY is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
US LNG exports move through Gulf Coast terminals; terminal utilization is driven by arb economics between European TTF and US Henry Hub prices. The TTF-HH spread determines whether terminals run at maximum capacity and transmit back to Henry Hub through feedgas demand. Wide spread opens the arb; narrow spread closes it.
Why it matters
Why TTF-HH spread predicts US nat gas forward returns
US LNG exports pull on domestic Henry Hub supply through Gulf Coast feedgas demand. The arb economics determine whether terminals run at maximum capacity. TTF premium over HH drives this directly. Wide spreads mean maximum terminal utilization and domestic supply pull. Narrow spreads mean terminals slow and domestic supply loosens.
Why this is the ARB-ECONOMICS complement to physical flow and storage signals
The NG global stack reads three structurally-independent channels. The TTF-HH spread reads price signal. The Rotterdam LNG regas composite reads physical EU LNG deliveries. The EU storage seasonal composite reads the underlying demand driver. Spread leads flow which leads storage, each by weeks.
How to use this signal today
The composite reading is firmly Extreme POS. US LNG arb is open and Gulf Coast terminals are pulling domestic feedgas hard. For a gas PM, this is background support for the bullish case even though NG has still fallen in the current regime window.
Signal consumers and siblings
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 06, 2026 05:57 AM ET