· Analytic
Z3504 FC Choice-Select Spread Signal
USDA AMS Choice minus Select cutout spread z-scored on 60 days as a Grade B+ consumer-premium-demand signal with strong independent-sample confirmation on CME Feeder Cattle forward returns.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.000
Normal, within 60d baseline
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, Choice-Select spread near baseline
Sample
Daily AMS, 12-year span
Choice-Select cutout spread, 2015+
Daily IC
+0.104 (p = 1.5e-8)
Spearman vs FC fwd60d, n = 2,957
Non-overlap IC
+0.386 (p = 0.006)
Every-60d, n = 49, STRONGLY significant
Baseline FC fwd60d
+1.37%
Unconditional mean (live window)
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service publishes daily Choice and Select grade beef cutout composites. The spread between Choice and Select — the premium that consumers and foodservice buyers pay for higher-grade beef — is a direct read on protein demand strength. When the Choice-Select spread widens, consumer premium-beef demand is firm and packers prioritize Choice-grading cattle through the kill mix. Feedlots respond by bidding for feeder cattle with better Choice-grading genetics and feeding programs. The incentive flows back to the feeder-cattle market as bullish FC pricing 60 days forward. The honest grade: Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.104 at p-value 1.5e-8 across 2,957 trading days — just outside the strict 1e-10 convention but statistically robust. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) IC is plus 0.386 at p-value 0.006 across 49 independent samples — STRONGLY INDEPENDENTLY SIGNIFICANT. The non-overlap edge is among the strongest in the FC library, catching genuine 60-day forward predictive power. Phase +1 (Wide Choice-Select) delivers +2.43 percent fwd60d (+1.06 pp above baseline, hit 61 percent). Phase -1 (Narrow Choice-Select) delivers +0.25 percent (-1.12 pp below baseline, hit 48 percent). 2.18 pp directional spread. Clean positive polarity. Current reading: Normal at composite 0.000, 61 trading days running. The Choice-Select spread is within its 60-day baseline. Signal is DORMANT. Watch for spread extremes as tactical premium-demand triggers.
LIVE CHART
FC Choice-Select Spread Signal
Composite reads 0.000 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal band. The Choice-Select cutout spread is within its 60-day baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.000 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
DAILY IC
+0.104 (p = 1.5e-8)
INDEPENDENCE
p = 0.006 (strong)
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal firing at composite 0.000, 61 trading days running. Phase +1 (Wide spread) historically delivers +2.43 percent fwd60d / 61 percent hit / +1.06 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Narrow spread) delivers +0.25 percent / 48 percent hit / -1.12 pp below baseline. Daily IC +0.104 at p-value 1.5e-8. Independence test at p-value 0.006 across 49 non-overlapping samples — strongly significant.
THE CHOICE-SELECT MECHANISM
USDA AMS publishes Choice and Select grade cutout composites daily. The spread between them measures consumer premium for higher-grade beef. Wide spread = firm premium demand = packers prioritize Choice-grading cattle = feedlots incentivized to supply Choice-grade feeders = bullish FC fwd60d.
HOW TO POSITION
Treat as directional-lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC BLS Retail Ground Beef signal (also a consumer-demand read), and the LC-corn ratio signal. In the current Normal dormant band, no directional lean.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at 0.000 in the Normal band. The blue signal line is at the neutral centerline as the Choice-Select cutout spread is within its 60-day baseline. CME Feeder Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$330-340 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite 0.000 State Normal, Choice-Select spread near baseline.
- Choice-Select cutout spread within 60d z-band AMS LM_XB403 Choice 600-900 lb cutout minus Select 600-900 lb cutout is within the 60-day z-score band. Consumer premium-beef demand near trend.
- Non-overlap IC strongly significant Daily IC plus 0.104 at p-value 1.5e-8. Independence test at p-value 0.006 across 49 non-overlapping samples — strongly significant.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE SPREAD CALL
Composite 0.000, Normal. The Choice-Select spread is within its 60-day baseline. Signal DORMANT.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Phase +1 (Wide spread) historical fwd60d FC mean plus 2.43 percent (plus 1.06 pp vs baseline, hit 61 percent). Phase -1 (Narrow spread) delivers minus 1.12 pp below baseline. 2.18 pp directional spread.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC plus 0.104 at p-value 1.5e-8 strongly significant (slightly outside the strict 1e-10 convention). Non-overlap IC plus 0.386 at p-value 0.006 STRONGLY significant — among the strongest independent-sample edges in the FC library. Grade B+ directional.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 2,897 trading days with observable FC fwd60d. Baseline FC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.37 percent mean. Grade B+ directional with STRONG independent-sample confirmation (non-overlap p=0.006).
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide Choice-Select | +1 | 11.7% (1109 d) | +2.05% | +0.82pp | Jun 2026, May 2026, Mar 2026 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 76.3% (7246 d) | +1.70% | +0.47pp | Aug 2026, Jun 2026, May 2026 | |
| Narrow Choice-Select | -1 | 12.0% (1138 d) | +1.25% | +0.02pp | May 2026, May 2026, May 2026 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 12-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d FC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide Choice-Select | 10/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 3d | +3.76% |
| Normal | 11/04/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 2d | +4.91% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 11/06/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 2d | +2.23% |
| Normal | 11/08/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 1d | +0.43% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/11/2024 | 11/11/2024 | 1d | +1.02% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 11/12/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 2d | +1.41% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/14/2024 | 11/14/2024 | 1d | +2.76% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 11/15/2024 | 11/15/2024 | 1d | +4.09% |
| Normal | 11/18/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 4d | +3.97% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/22/2024 | 11/25/2024 | 2d | +0.29% |
| Normal | 11/26/2024 | 11/29/2024 | 3d | -1.02% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/02/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 1d | -3.29% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 12/03/2024 | 12/03/2024 | 1d | -4.48% |
| Normal | 12/04/2024 | 12/04/2024 | 1d | -4.05% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/05/2024 | 12/05/2024 | 1d | -5.60% |
| Normal | 12/06/2024 | 12/09/2024 | 2d | -5.25% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 12/10/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 1d | -7.78% |
| Normal | 12/11/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 2d | -8.00% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/13/2024 | 12/26/2024 | 9d | -6.85% |
| Normal | 12/27/2024 | 12/27/2024 | 1d | -4.69% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/30/2024 | 01/06/2025 | 5d | -5.54% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 01/07/2025 | 01/07/2025 | 1d | -14.16% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/08/2025 | 01/09/2025 | 2d | -14.44% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 01/10/2025 | 01/13/2025 | 2d | -14.47% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/14/2025 | 01/17/2025 | 4d | -9.90% |
| Normal | 01/21/2025 | 01/21/2025 | 1d | -12.83% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/22/2025 | 01/27/2025 | 4d | -13.20% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 01/28/2025 | 01/28/2025 | 1d | -9.57% |
| Normal | 01/29/2025 | 01/29/2025 | 1d | -8.50% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/30/2025 | 01/31/2025 | 2d | -8.96% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/03/2025 | 02/04/2025 | 2d | -7.23% |
| Normal | 02/05/2025 | 02/06/2025 | 2d | -6.20% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/07/2025 | 02/10/2025 | 2d | -6.99% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 02/11/2025 | 02/18/2025 | 5d | -6.65% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/19/2025 | 02/19/2025 | 1d | -3.67% |
| Normal | 02/20/2025 | 02/20/2025 | 1d | -2.65% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/21/2025 | 02/24/2025 | 2d | -0.85% |
| Normal | 02/25/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 1d | -1.92% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/26/2025 | 03/03/2025 | 4d | -1.93% |
| Normal | 03/04/2025 | 03/07/2025 | 4d | +2.29% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 03/10/2025 | 03/10/2025 | 1d | +6.31% |
| Normal | 03/11/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 1d | +6.68% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 03/12/2025 | 03/12/2025 | 1d | +7.21% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/13/2025 | 03/17/2025 | 3d | +8.75% |
| Normal | 03/18/2025 | 03/19/2025 | 2d | +7.62% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/20/2025 | 03/24/2025 | 3d | +6.58% |
| Normal | 03/25/2025 | 03/25/2025 | 1d | +3.27% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/26/2025 | 03/26/2025 | 1d | +5.55% |
| Normal | 03/27/2025 | 03/27/2025 | 1d | +7.00% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/28/2025 | 03/31/2025 | 2d | +9.26% |
| Normal | 04/01/2025 | 04/01/2025 | 1d | +9.62% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 04/02/2025 | 04/04/2025 | 3d | +9.45% |
| Normal | 04/07/2025 | 04/07/2025 | 1d | +23.98% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 04/08/2025 | 04/10/2025 | 3d | +25.02% |
| Normal | 04/11/2025 | 04/14/2025 | 2d | +17.21% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 04/15/2025 | 04/15/2025 | 1d | +16.22% |
| Normal | 04/16/2025 | 04/16/2025 | 1d | +18.35% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 04/17/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 3d | +18.58% |
| Normal | 04/23/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 2d | +17.43% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 04/25/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 5d | +15.18% |
| Normal | 05/02/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 1d | +11.95% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/05/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 1d | +12.17% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 05/06/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 2d | +11.26% |
| Normal | 05/08/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 1d | +11.13% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/09/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 3d | +12.13% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 05/14/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 7d | +8.23% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/23/2025 | 05/27/2025 | 2d | +10.19% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 05/28/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 2d | +9.80% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/30/2025 | 06/02/2025 | 2d | +9.46% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 06/03/2025 | 06/03/2025 | 1d | +8.86% |
| Normal | 06/04/2025 | 06/09/2025 | 4d | +8.24% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 06/10/2025 | 06/13/2025 | 4d | +7.32% |
| Normal | 06/16/2025 | 06/17/2025 | 2d | +9.11% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 06/18/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 1d | +10.62% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 06/20/2025 | 06/23/2025 | 2d | +11.06% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 06/24/2025 | 06/25/2025 | 2d | +9.29% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 06/26/2025 | 06/27/2025 | 2d | +8.98% |
| Normal | 06/30/2025 | 07/01/2025 | 2d | +7.35% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 07/02/2025 | 07/09/2025 | 5d | +6.67% |
| Normal | 07/10/2025 | 07/11/2025 | 2d | +6.93% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 07/14/2025 | 07/16/2025 | 3d | +7.09% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 07/17/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 1d | +3.98% |
| Normal | 07/18/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 1d | +5.65% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 07/21/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 4d | +5.32% |
| Normal | 07/25/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 2d | +5.37% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 07/29/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 4d | +5.12% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 08/04/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 2d | +8.85% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 08/06/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 1d | +7.44% |
| Normal | 08/07/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 1d | +7.88% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 08/08/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 2d | +7.24% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 08/12/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 1d | +5.43% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 08/13/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 2d | +3.94% |
| Normal | 08/15/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 4d | +5.91% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 08/21/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 1d | +5.72% |
| Normal | 08/22/2025 | 08/25/2025 | 2d | +3.16% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 08/26/2025 | 08/27/2025 | 2d | +2.71% |
| Normal | 08/28/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 1d | +1.56% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 08/29/2025 | 09/03/2025 | 3d | +3.67% |
| Normal | 09/04/2025 | 09/04/2025 | 1d | +5.28% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 09/05/2025 | 09/08/2025 | 2d | +5.10% |
| Normal | 09/09/2025 | 09/09/2025 | 1d | +5.45% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 09/10/2025 | 09/16/2025 | 5d | +4.93% |
| Normal | 09/17/2025 | 09/17/2025 | 1d | +4.55% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 09/18/2025 | 09/19/2025 | 2d | +2.81% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 09/22/2025 | 09/24/2025 | 3d | +1.80% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 09/25/2025 | 09/25/2025 | 1d | +3.24% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 09/26/2025 | 10/06/2025 | 7d | +3.48% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 10/07/2025 | 10/08/2025 | 2d | +2.10% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 10/09/2025 | 10/10/2025 | 2d | +3.08% |
| Normal | 10/13/2025 | 10/13/2025 | 1d | +3.99% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 10/14/2025 | 10/15/2025 | 2d | +4.81% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 10/16/2025 | 10/17/2025 | 2d | +5.01% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 10/20/2025 | 10/20/2025 | 1d | +3.12% |
| Normal | 10/21/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 2d | +3.03% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 10/23/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 1d | +2.03% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 10/24/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 3d | +1.73% |
| Normal | 10/29/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 2d | +1.18% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 10/31/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 2d | +1.76% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/04/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 1d | +2.99% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 11/05/2025 | 11/11/2025 | 5d | +1.76% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/12/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 2d | +1.28% |
| Normal | 11/14/2025 | 11/17/2025 | 2d | +1.39% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 11/18/2025 | 12/12/2025 | 18d | +3.45% |
| Normal | 12/15/2025 | 12/16/2025 | 2d | -2.71% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/17/2025 | 12/23/2025 | 5d | -0.09% |
| Normal | 12/24/2025 | 12/24/2025 | 1d | -5.39% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/26/2025 | 12/26/2025 | 1d | -4.85% |
| Normal | 12/29/2025 | 12/29/2025 | 1d | -6.22% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 12/30/2025 | 01/07/2026 | 6d | -7.70% |
| Normal | 01/08/2026 | 01/08/2026 | 1d | -4.39% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/09/2026 | 01/13/2026 | 3d | -2.60% |
| Normal | 01/14/2026 | 01/14/2026 | 1d | -0.62% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 01/15/2026 | 01/16/2026 | 2d | +0.32% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/20/2026 | 01/20/2026 | 1d | +3.55% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 01/21/2026 | 01/21/2026 | 1d | +3.61% |
| Normal | 01/22/2026 | 01/22/2026 | 1d | +2.87% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 01/23/2026 | 01/28/2026 | 4d | +2.15% |
| Normal | 01/29/2026 | 01/30/2026 | 2d | +3.04% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 02/02/2026 | 02/02/2026 | 1d | +2.33% |
| Normal | 02/03/2026 | 02/03/2026 | 1d | +4.22% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 02/04/2026 | 02/04/2026 | 1d | +5.02% |
| Normal | 02/05/2026 | 02/05/2026 | 1d | +5.96% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/06/2026 | 02/13/2026 | 6d | +4.80% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 02/17/2026 | 02/18/2026 | 2d | +8.71% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 02/19/2026 | 03/02/2026 | 8d | +7.99% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/03/2026 | 03/03/2026 | 1d | +10.92% |
| Normal | 03/04/2026 | 03/05/2026 | 2d | +10.41% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 03/06/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 4d | +12.97% |
| Normal | 03/12/2026 | 03/12/2026 | 1d | +10.98% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 03/13/2026 | 03/18/2026 | 4d | +11.29% |
| Normal | 03/19/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 1d | +14.40% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 03/20/2026 | 03/27/2026 | 6d | +15.69% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 03/30/2026 | 03/30/2026 | 1d | +16.19% |
| Normal | 03/31/2026 | 04/02/2026 | 3d | +12.09% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 04/06/2026 | 04/07/2026 | 2d | +13.18% |
| Normal | 04/08/2026 | 04/08/2026 | 1d | +11.13% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 04/09/2026 | 04/13/2026 | 3d | +9.97% |
| Normal | 04/14/2026 | 04/14/2026 | 1d | +8.71% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 04/15/2026 | 04/20/2026 | 4d | +7.03% |
| Normal | 04/21/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 1d | +5.57% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 04/22/2026 | 04/27/2026 | 4d | +4.34% |
| Normal | 04/28/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 3d | +3.83% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/01/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 2d | +1.22% |
| Normal | 05/05/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 4d | +3.21% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/11/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 1d | +3.96% |
| Normal | 05/12/2026 | 05/13/2026 | 2d | +4.75% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/14/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 1d | +2.99% |
| Normal | 05/15/2026 | 05/18/2026 | 2d | +4.51% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 05/19/2026 | 05/19/2026 | 1d | +5.81% |
| Normal | 05/20/2026 | 05/20/2026 | 1d | +4.24% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/21/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 1d | +3.33% |
| Normal | 05/22/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 4d | +3.14% |
| Narrow Choice-Select | 05/29/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 1d | +1.25% |
| Normal | 06/01/2026 | 06/09/2026 | 7d | +0.99% |
| Wide Choice-Select | 06/10/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 39d | +6.17% |
| Normal | 08/06/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 61d | -1.67% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day FC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal computes USDA AMS LM_XB403 Choice 600-900 pound composite cutout minus Select 600-900 pound composite cutout, divided by Select cutout, z-scored on a 60-day rolling window with 20-day minimum sample, clipped to [-3, +3], tanh-bounded. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Daily release.
Why it matters
Why Choice-Select spread reads consumer premium-demand
USDA Agricultural Marketing Service publishes daily cutout composites for Choice (higher grade) and Select (standard grade) beef. The spread between them is the premium paid for higher-grade product — a direct read on consumer and foodservice willingness to pay up for better beef. Wide spread signals firm premium demand; narrow spread signals consumer trade-down.
Why Grade B+ with strong independent-sample confirmation
Daily Spearman IC against FC fwd60d is plus 0.104 at p-value 1.5e-8 across 2,957 observations — strongly significant daily (slightly outside the strict 1e-10 convention). Non-overlapping independence test at p-value 0.006 across 49 independent samples — STRONGLY SIGNIFICANT. The non-overlap edge (+0.386 magnitude) is among the strongest in the FC library.
How to use this signal today
In the current Normal dormant band, no directional lean. Pair with the FC US Herd Inventory signal, the FC Light Placement Pace signal, the FC BLS Retail Ground Beef signal (also a consumer-demand read), and the LC-corn ratio signal.
Related signals
Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 05:38 PM ET