· Analytic
Z4724 LC Cattle on Feed Total YoY Signal
USDA NASS Cattle on Feed total inventory year-over-year, inverted and z-scored on two years — the on-feed stock-level supply signal on CME Live Cattle.
At a glance
Current reading
+0.158
Normal regime, effectively neutral
Signal state
Normal
phase 0, COF total near 2-year baseline
Sample
Monthly USDA NASS, 36-year span
COF total inventory YoY, 1990+
Historical IC
+0.054 (p = 2.5e-07)
Spearman vs LC fwd60d, significant daily
Baseline LC fwd60d
+1.02%
Unconditional mean
Large Herd fwd60d
-1.63% mean
-2.65 pp below baseline, 46% hit rate
As of Oct 30, 2026. Updated nightly.
OBJECTIVE
USDA NASS reports monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) total inventory — the stock of cattle currently in feedlots. This is DIFFERENT from placements (flow entering) and marketings (flow leaving). Total on-feed inventory captures the stock position of the finishing pipeline. This signal reads NASS COF total inventory YoY, SIGN-FLIPS so smaller herd reads positive composite (tight supply = bullish-LC), z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds at plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release. Small Herd (positive composite) means total on-feed inventory is BELOW year-ago — the finishing pipeline stock is thin. Historically BULLISH LC forward. Large Herd (negative composite) means total on-feed is ABOVE year-ago — stock levels are elevated. Historically BEARISH LC forward. The memorable finding: Grade C+ stock-level supply signal. Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.054 at p-value 2.5e-7 across 9,049 observations — significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60-day) independence test at p-value 0.86 — not significant. Phase +1 (Small Herd) delivers +1.70% fwd60d (+0.68 pp edge, hit 60%). Phase -1 (Large Herd) delivers -1.63% fwd60d (-2.65 pp edge, hit 46%). Phase 0 (Normal) delivers +1.09%. The Phase -1 bearish tail is the STRONGER side (-2.65 pp spread). Phase 0 dominates 91% of sample — the signal is dormant most of the time, firing only at structural inventory extremes. Current reading: Normal regime at composite +0.157. COF total inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline closely. Signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1 for actionable read. Read on for the historical anchors and how to pair with the LC fundamental stack.
LIVE CHART
LC Cattle on Feed Total YoY Signal
Composite reads +0.157 as of October 30, 2026, in the Normal regime band. COF total inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
COMPOSITE
+0.157 / tanh
STATE
Normal
PHASE
0
FWD 60d
+1.09% (baseline +1.02%)
SAMPLE N
9,049 days
STATE-CONDITIONAL EDGE
Forward 60-day returns by state
FORWARD 60-DAY RETURNS BY STATE
Mean forward-60-day benchmark return per composite state. Baseline (horizontal line) is the unconditional sample mean. Bars above the line are the constructive bands; bars below are the bearish bands.
TODAY’S PLAYBOOK READING
STATE
NORMAL
STATE AND HISTORY
Normal regime, 30 days running. Phase +1 (Small Herd) historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +1.70%, hit 60%, +0.68 pp above baseline. Phase -1 (Large Herd) delivers -1.63% / 46% hit / -2.65 pp — the bearish tail is the stronger side.
THE STOCK-LEVEL MECHANISM
Small on-feed herd = finishing pipeline thin = tight forward supply = bullish-LC. Large on-feed herd = pipeline loaded = plentiful forward supply = bearish-LC. Distinct from placements (entry flow) and marketings (exit flow).
HOW TO POSITION
Pair with LC-corn ratio, FC-LC spread, placements signal, marketings signal, cattle inventory. COF total is the stock-level complement to the flow signals.
WHAT THE CHART SHOWS
The composite sits at +0.157 in the Normal regime band. The blue signal line is near zero as COF total inventory tracks the 2-year baseline. CME Live Cattle (orange) has traded in the \$220-230 range.
TOP INPUTS FIRING
- Primary composite +0.157 State Normal, effectively neutral.
- COF total inventory tracking baseline Monthly on-feed total is running near the 2-year baseline. No material stock-level directional signal.
- State-conditional edge: +0.07 pp mean Normal regime historical fwd60d LC mean +1.09%, baseline +1.02%, hit 58%. Signal is dormant until transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1.
THE TAKEAWAY
What this means for you today
THE INVENTORY CALL
Composite +0.157, Normal regime. COF total inventory is tracking the 2-year baseline closely. No material stock-level directional signal.
THE EMPIRICAL CONTEXT
Normal regime historically delivers mean fwd60d LC +1.09% (near baseline). The signal is DORMANT. Watch for transition to Phase +1 or Phase -1 (both are rare — ~5-6% of sample each) for actionable read.
THE HONEST CAVEAT
Daily IC +0.054 significant. Non-overlap test not significant. Grade C+ stock-level overlay with meaningful tail edges but dormant most of time.
THE REGIME MAP
The three states, forward returns and sample share
Computed from 9,049 trading days with observable LC fwd60d. Baseline LC fwd60d (unconditional): plus 1.02 percent mean. Grade C+ stock-level signal with the bearish tail dominant.
| State | Phase | Share | Fwd 60d | HAC t | Edge vs baseline | Last firings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Herd | +1 | 5.6% (504 d) | -0.25% | -1.28pp | Dec 2022, Dec 2017, Sep 2013 | |
| Normal TODAY | 0 | 90.7% (8211 d) | -0.56% | -1.58pp | Jan 2024, Jan 2023, Jan 2019 | |
| Large Herd | -1 | 3.7% (334 d) | +0.64% | -0.38pp | Dec 2023, Dec 2018, Jan 2018 |
The historical pattern
Signature episodes in the 36-year sample
THE TRACK RECORD
State changes
| State | Start | End | Duration | Fwd 60d LC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 10/30/2024 | 10/30/2026 | 503d | +3.76% |
Scroll inside the table for the full history. Forward 60-day LC is measured from each run’s start date; a reader cannot trade off a start-date they only identify in hindsight, so this is a transparency log, not an alpha claim. Asterisked (*) returns are partial. The run is less than 60 trading days old. The full 60-day comparable fills in as more data arrives.
What this measures
The signal pulls USDA NASS monthly Cattle on Feed total inventory, computes year-over-year percent change, sign-flips so smaller herd reads positive composite, z-scores on a 504-day rolling window with 60-day minimum sample, and bounds with tanh. State thresholds plus or minus 0.2 (moderate) and plus or minus 0.5 (extreme). Monthly USDA release.
Why it matters
Why COF total inventory reads stock-level supply
USDA NASS reports monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) total inventory — the stock of cattle currently in feedlots. This is distinct from the FLOW signals that measure placements (cattle entering, 4-6 month lead) and marketings (cattle leaving, finishing-end exit). COF total captures the STOCK position of the finishing pipeline at any point in time — how much cattle inventory sits in feedlots waiting to finish.
Why Grade C+ with asymmetric tail dominance
Daily Spearman IC against LC fwd60d is +0.054 at p-value 2.5e-7 across 9,049 observations — significant daily. Non-overlapping (every-60d) independence test at p-value 0.86 — not significant. Phase -1 (Large Herd) tail is the DOMINANT side at -2.65 pp below baseline. Phase +1 (Small Herd) delivers +0.68 pp above baseline. 3.3 pp directional spread with asymmetric weight on the bearish side.
How to use this signal today
Pair with LC-corn ratio (feedlot-margin primary driver), FC-LC spread (replacement-cost), placements signal (entry flow), marketings signal (exit flow), cattle inventory (structural supply at 18-30mo lead). COF total is the stock-level complement to the flow signals — answers "how much is in the pipeline right now?"
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Not investment advice · The analysis on this page is informational and educational. Signal readings, historical case figures, and empirical statistics are derived from publicly available data and are provided without warranty. Hypothetical performance results have inherent limitations, including the benefit of hindsight. Readers who intend to trade should consult a licensed investment professional and see the research brief for the full disclaimer.
Last refreshed Nov 01, 2026 01:25 PM ET